India pharmaceuticals: Indian pharma US sales trends diverge as competition reshapes product-level outcomes

Overview

Nomura reviews July 2026 US sales, prescription trends, generic competition, ANDA activity and biosimilar market shares for Indian pharmaceutical companies. The central message is differentiated company performance: new launches and exclusivity support selected companies, while intensified competition is eroding several established generic products.

Core views

Nomura uses IQVIA sales and prescription data to assess broad US-market trends, while cautioning that reported company sales can differ materially from IQVIA figures and that product-specific dynamics drive results. India pharma T3M US sales declined by USD66mn month-on-month to USD4,226mn in July 2026; excluding gRevlimid, sales fell by USD33mn to USD3,917mn. Alembic and Torrent recorded the largest monthly increases, while Zydus and Sun Pharma saw the largest declines. Excluding gRevlimid, Alembic and Biocon led gains, whereas Zydus and Sun Pharma remained the weakest. Competitive pressure is most visible in gMyrbetriq. Lupin’s 25mg and 50mg market shares declined by 77bp and 292bp month-on-month to 13.9% and 14.2%, respectively, while Zydus’s shares fell by 294bp and 122bp to 27.6% and 26.4%, following additional competition from Amneal. Nomura notes that profitability has declined significantly because of lower prices and high royalty payouts. Lupin also faces additional gJynarque competition, with Teva having launched in late August and Apotex and Alkem expected to follow; Lupin guided US revenue down from USD366mn in 1QFY27 to USD250mn–280mn in each of the remaining FY27E quarters. New generic launches and exclusivity are important offsets. Dr. Reddy’s launched gBosulif 400mg with MSN and has 180 days of sole exclusivity; it recorded USD9mn of sales in T3M July, reached about 65% share, and Nomura estimates roughly USD50mn of exclusivity-period revenue from an approximately USD200mn manufacturer-price market, much of it likely in 2QFY27F. Alembic also benefited from gBosulif: its T3M sales rose USD8mn month-on-month to USD165mn and its 100mg and 500mg products, also under 180-day exclusivity, reached 63% share in a USD300mn annual market. Torrent’s T3M sales increased USD7mn to USD86mn, primarily driven by gOpsumit. Sun Pharma’s reported specialty growth slowed to 1.5% year-on-year in T3M July 2026 from 20.8% a year earlier, but Nomura sees stronger underlying primary-sales growth through volumes: Cequa and Winlevi prescriptions rose 18.5% and 123.5% year-on-year, while Ilumya unit volumes rose 19.1% despite sales growth of only 2.3%. Leqselvi traction remains modest 13 months after launch, with prescriptions and sales at 19.3% and 22.3% of Litfulo’s comparable-stage levels; Litfulo sales were 4.5 times Leqselvi’s after 13 months. Nomura considers Sun’s September agreement to provide most-favored-nation pricing to state Medicaid programs a significant reduction in uncertainty around specialty sales, judging the Medicaid impact likely limited because sales are limited and prices already carry higher discounts. Cipla’s trends were mixed. Its gOfev share reached 53.7% in July after the product went generic in April, while gAbraxane share improved to 9.6%; gSaxenda remained high at 72% but declined from 77% in June. Lanreotide sales and volume share were nearly nil because of supply disruptions. Nomura identifies approvals and launches of gSymbicort and gGattex as important. Its Indore sterile formulation site remains subject to regulatory concern after seven Form 483 observations and a prior warning letter, but Nomura believes key filings have been de-risked through an alternate site and that an import alert would have a lower impact because three inhaler products representing about 35% of US sales are also supplied elsewhere. At the industry level, ANDA filings recovered after FY25’s 600 filings, which Nomura characterizes as a 20-year low after adjusting for FY14–15 aberrations. In the first nine months of FY26, 457 ANDAs were filed versus 393 in the prior-year period. The report interprets the 15%–20% share of complex filings as evidence that development remains selective. ANDA approvals were broadly stable: FY25 approvals were 689 versus 694 a year earlier, and the first nine months of FY26 recorded 541 versus 550. Median approval times, which declined under GDUFA from FY15 to FY23, are now stable at 20–25 months. Biosimilar data show meaningful but product-specific penetration. Adalimumab innovator share was only 8.5%, with Amgen holding the largest biosimilar share at about 50%; ustekinumab biosimilar penetration reached about 54% after 13 months of launch. For trastuzumab, Roche’s innovator share was about 21% and Biocon was the fourth-largest player at 16.6%. By contrast, infliximab’s innovator retained about 47% share, illustrating that biosimilar conversion rates vary materially by product.

Analysis framework

The report combines IQVIA T3M sales, prescription volumes and product market shares with USFDA ANDA filing, approval and inspection data. Nomura compares monthly, quarterly and annual changes, then links each company’s results to product launches, exclusivity, competition, supply issues, regulatory developments and biosimilar penetration.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisVolume-price decomposition

  Sales, prescription-volume and market-share tracking

  Nomura separates reported sales trends from prescription and unit-volume trends to distinguish underlying demand or volume progress from pricing, competition and product-mix effects.

• Industry AnalysisSupply-demand framework

  Generic-entry, exclusivity and approval analysis

  The report assesses how filings, approvals, new entrants and temporary exclusivity change competitive supply and therefore market share, prices and product revenue.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Sun Pharma (SUNP IN)

  Covered company with specialty-volume resilience but mixed reported sales trends

  Strengths

  Cequa, Winlevi and Ilumya volume growth; reduced uncertainty from the Medicaid MFN-pricing agreement

  Weaknesses

  Specialty sales growth slowed to 1.5% year-on-year; Leqselvi uptake is slower than comparable products

  Comparison

  Leqselvi sales were 22.3% of Litfulo’s at a similar post-launch stage

  Risks

  Competition and lower growth in selected specialty products

• Dr. Reddy's (DRRD IN)

  Covered company benefiting from gBosulif exclusivity

  Strengths

  About 65% gBosulif share and potential exclusivity-period revenue of about USD50mn

  Weaknesses

  T3M sales fell USD9mn month-on-month, primarily due to lower gRevlimid sales

  Comparison

  gBosulif market share exceeded Pfizer’s in July 2026

  Risks

  Competitive intensity in products such as gVascepa

• Cipla (CIPLA IN)

  Covered company with mixed product trends

  Strengths

  Leading gOfev share and improving gAbraxane share

  Weaknesses

  Lanreotide sales and volume share were nearly nil because of supply disruptions

  Comparison

  Cipla led gOfev market share at 53.7% in July 2026

  Risks

  Potential escalation of USFDA concerns at the Indore site

• Lupin (LPC IN)

  Covered company facing erosion in key US generic products

  Strengths

  gSpiriva share remained about 35.8%

  Weaknesses

  gMyrbetriq share and profitability declined; US revenue guidance implies lower run-rate revenue

  Comparison

  gMyrbetriq shares declined after Amneal’s entry

  Risks

  Further gJynarque competition and delayed biosimilar launches

• Zydus (ZYDUSLIF IN)

  Covered company affected by gMyrbetriq competition while building a 505(b)(2) portfolio

  Strengths

  Sitagliptin 505(b)(2) share increased to 6.0%

  Weaknesses

  T3M sales fell USD38mn month-on-month, led by gMyrbetriq and gRevlimid

  Comparison

  Beizray had limited traction versus Docivyx

  Risks

  Lower gMyrbetriq profitability and generic competition

Key data

• India pharma US salesUSD4,226mnT3M July 2026; down USD66mn month-on-month
• India pharma US sales excluding gRevlimidUSD3,917mnT3M July 2026; down USD33mn month-on-month
• ANDA filings457First nine months of FY26, versus 393 in the year-ago period
• ANDA approvals541First nine months of FY26, versus 550 in the year-ago period
• Median ANDA approval time20–25 monthsCurrently stable after declining from FY15 to FY23
• Cipla gOfev market share53.7%July 2026, the highest share after generic entry in April 2026

Impact & implications

Nomura indicates that US performance is increasingly determined by individual product launches, exclusivity periods and the speed of competitive entry rather than broad sector momentum. The rebound in ANDA filings may support a future pipeline of generic launches, while persistent competition, supply disruptions and USFDA site developments remain material differentiators.

Risks

• Further generic competition may erode market share, pricing and profitability in key products.
• Cipla’s Indore site faces the risk of further USFDA escalation, including an import alert.
• Supply disruptions have materially affected Cipla’s Lanreotide sales and market share.

What to watch

• Launches and market-share development for gSymbicort, gGattex, Lupin’s biosimilars and other new products.
• Additional generic entrants in gMyrbetriq, gJynarque and Lanreotide.
• Cipla’s Indore-site regulatory status and the effect of any import alert.
• ANDA filing and approval trends, including the mix of complex-product filings.
• Sun Pharma specialty prescription growth and Leqselvi’s post-launch ramp.