U.S. major pharmaceutical prescription growth slows; the key watchpoint remains the launch trajectory of priority new drugs
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U.S. major pharmaceutical prescription growth slows; the key watchpoint remains the launch trajectory of priority new drugs
Morgan Stanley tracks the U.S. biopharma market using IQVIA prescription and sales data, with a focus on comparing the prescription ramp for new drugs such as Cobenfy, Yeztugo, Journavx, and Icotyde against 2026 consensus expectations.
- As of the week ended June 12, 2026, total U.S. market TRx grew 0.6% y/y, down from 0.9% the prior week; the trailing 12-week y/y rate was 1.1%.
- Cobenfy recorded about 3,200 prescriptions that week, versus about 3,430 the prior week; the report estimates roughly 197K TRx are needed to reach 2026 consensus.
- Following approval, Yeztugo's latest weekly total TRx was about 1,720, including about 980 injectable prescriptions; the report says PrEP market growth of 14% y/y and Descovy's share above 45% help support expectations beyond 2026.
- Journavx recorded about 22,430 prescriptions that week, slightly above about 22,100 the prior week; the report uses GTN and prescription-duration sensitivity analyses to estimate the TRx path needed to reach 2026 consensus.
- Icotyde recorded about 480 prescriptions that week, up from about 380 the prior week; early physician feedback is positive, but sample distribution and incomplete IQVIA capture may affect near-term interpretation.
- Biosimilar penetration remains an important theme: among Stelara biosimilars, Yesintek had about 39% share and Wezlana about 12%; among Prolia biosimilars, Jubbonti had about 25% and Stoboclo about 12%.
Report interpretation
Overview
This report is Morgan Stanley's recurring chartbook on North American biopharma and major pharmaceutical companies, with core data sourced from IQVIA prescription and sales databases. It covers the U.S. total prescription market, key launch products, and multiple therapeutic areas including immunology, GLP-1, diabetes, cardiovascular, infectious disease, neuroscience, obesity, ophthalmology, osteoporosis, and biosimilars. At the market level, in the week ended June 12, 2026, total U.S. market TRx rose 0.6% y/y, the 4-week rolling y/y rate was 1.0%, and the 12-week rolling y/y rate was 1.1%, indicating moderate prescription growth that slowed from the prior week.
Core views
The report's core point is not a single-stock rating, but rather using prescription curves to judge whether key products can meet market consensus expectations. Cobenfy, Journavx, Yeztugo, and Icotyde are the main newly launched products under review, and the analytical framework centers on actual weekly TRx, launch analogs, net price or GTN assumptions, and the prescription volume required to support 2026 consensus revenue. The report is more constructive on Yeztugo, arguing that growth in the PrEP market, payer coverage reaching 95%, and the fact that most payers do not require co-pays and impose fewer prior authorizations or step-therapy requirements should support GILD's PrEP revenue outlook for 2026 and beyond. In immunology, products such as Skyrizi, Rinvoq, and Tremfya continue to post strong y/y growth, while Humira and Stelara are declining sharply under biosimilar competition. GLP-1 and obesity products still maintain very large prescription volumes, with LLY and Novo's related products remaining at high levels.
Analysis framework
The report mainly uses weekly IQVIA prescriptions, 4-week rolling and 12-week rolling y/y trends, market share, monthly sales, launch-curve comparisons, and sensitivity analysis. For new launches, it compares actual TRx with historical comparable launches and backs into the TRx path needed to achieve consensus revenue by using assumptions for net price, WAC, GTN, prescription duration, and payer coverage. For mature drugs and biosimilars, it focuses on TRx share, sales share, and the visibility limits imposed by data capture constraints.
Methodology notes
Use total prescriptions, new prescriptions, and extended-unit prescriptions to measure demand trends.
TRx represents total prescriptions including refills, NRx represents new prescriptions but also includes prescriptions restarted after a refill run-off, and EUTRx and EUNRx incorporate longer prescription durations, which may better reflect true demand than raw prescription counts.
Compare post-launch prescription ramp for new drugs with historical comparable products.
The report compares Cobenfy's launch curve with antipsychotics such as Rexulti, Caplyta, and Lybalvi, and compares Icotyde with immunology products such as Otezla and Rinvoq, to assess whether they can reach 2026 consensus expectations.
Back-solve the required prescription volume from consensus revenue expectations.
Using assumptions for net price, WAC, GTN, and prescription duration, the report converts 2026 or 2Q26 consensus revenue into the TRx path required to support it and compares that path with current actual prescription trends.
Track share erosion of originator brands by biosimilars.
The report covers biosimilar share changes for originator brands such as Actemra, Avastin, Epogen, Herceptin, Humira, Lantus, Lucentis, Neulasta, Prolia, Remicade, Rituxan, and Stelara.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- BMY / CobenfyNew product launch prescription tracking
- Strengths
- Approved for schizophrenia, with the report providing a launch-curve comparison framework against historical antipsychotics.
- Weaknesses
- Latest weekly prescriptions declined versus the prior week, and reaching 2026 consensus requires a meaningful ramp.
- Comparison
- The report compares it with launch volumes for Rexulti, Caplyta, and Lybalvi.
- Risks
- If prescription growth cannot reach the required path, 2026 consensus faces downside risk.
- GILD / YeztugoPrEP new-product launch tracking
- Strengths
- Payer coverage reaches 95%, the PrEP market is growing 14% y/y, and Descovy's share remains above 45%.
- Weaknesses
- Early launch visibility is limited, and GTN and capture rates remain uncertain.
- Comparison
- The report compares Yeztugo with Descovy and GSK's Apretude.
- Risks
- If actual net price, GTN, or prescription capture rates are weaker than assumed, realized revenue could fall short of estimates.
- VRTX / JournavxAcute pain new-product launch tracking
- Strengths
- Latest weekly prescriptions increased modestly, and the report uses multiple GTN assumptions to estimate the path to consensus.
- Weaknesses
- Hospital prescriptions are not fully captured by IQVIA, and prescription duration and GTN assumptions are highly sensitive.
- Comparison
- The report compares actual prescriptions with the trajectory required to reach 2026 consensus.
- Risks
- Incomplete data coverage may lead to short-term misinterpretation; if GTN is higher or prescription volume is insufficient, revenue could come under pressure.
- JNJ / IcotydeImmunology oral IL-23 new-product launch tracking
- Strengths
- Early physician feedback suggests it is attractive for moderate psoriasis and may expand the treatable patient pool.
- Weaknesses
- Sample distribution friction and incomplete IQVIA capture obscure the true prescription dynamic.
- Comparison
- The report compares it with launch trajectories for Otezla, Rinvoq, and other psoriasis biologics and oral therapies.
- Risks
- If the true prescription conversion rate is slower than expected, 2026 U.S. consensus revenue of $288 million could face pressure.
- ABBV / Skyrizi and RinvoqCore immunology growth products
- Strengths
- Skyrizi and Rinvoq continue to show strong y/y TRx growth in the latest tables.
- Weaknesses
- Immunology competition is intense, and per-prescription price is affected by indication expansion and payer factors.
- Comparison
- Skyrizi is compared with IL-23 products such as Tremfya, while Rinvoq is compared with other JAK and immunology products.
- Risks
- Biosimilar competition, indication mix changes, and net price pressure may affect revenue quality.
- Biosimilars / Stelara and ProliaBiosimilar penetration tracking
- Strengths
- Biosimilar share is forming quickly, easing cost pressure for payers and patients.
- Weaknesses
- Originator brand share is being eroded, and some products face IQVIA reporting limitations.
- Comparison
- Yesintek and Wezlana are gaining share in Stelara, while Jubbonti and Stoboclo are beginning to take meaningful TRx share in Prolia.
- Risks
- Data limitations, channel differences, and rebate arrangements may mean prescription share does not fully match the true economic impact.
Key data
- U.S. total market weekly TRx y/y+0.6%As of the week ended June 12, 2026, below the prior week's +0.9% and also below +2.9% in the same period last year.
- U.S. total market 4-week rolling TRx y/y+1.0%Used to smooth weekly volatility.
- U.S. total market 12-week rolling TRx y/y+1.1%The report says total prescription growth has remained at a modest pace over the past 12 weeks.
- EUTRx weekly y/y+0.4%Lower than TRx y/y of +0.6%.
- Cobenfy latest weekly prescriptionsabout 3,200 prescriptionsAbout 3,430 the prior week; the report estimates roughly 197K TRx are needed to reach 2026 consensus.
- Yeztugo latest weekly total TRxabout 1,720 prescriptionsAbout 1,750 the prior week; latest weekly injectable prescriptions were about 980, broadly flat versus the prior week.
- Yeztugo payer coverage95%The report says most payers do not require co-pays, while a smaller number impose prior authorization or step therapy.
- PrEP market growth+14% y/yThe report says this growth, together with stable Descovy share, supports GILD's expectations beyond 2026.
- Journavx latest weekly prescriptionsabout 22,430 prescriptionsAbout 22,100 the prior week; hospital prescriptions are not fully captured by IQVIA.
- Icotyde latest weekly prescriptionsabout 480 prescriptionsAbout 380 the prior week; the report estimates that reaching 2026 U.S. consensus revenue of $288 million would require about 35K to 46K TRx.
- Stelara biosimilar shareYesintek about 39%, Wezlana about 12%Latest weekly TRx share data.
- Prolia biosimilar shareJubbonti about 25%, Stoboclo about 12%, originator Prolia about 56%Latest weekly TRx share data.
Impact & implications
The report's main investment takeaway is that it provides product-level leading indicators. For new drugs, if actual TRx remains below the path required to meet consensus, there may be downside risk to revenue expectations; if payer coverage, patient access, and prescription ramp outperform expectations, upside revisions may be supported. For mature immunology products and biosimilars, share migration determines the revenue resilience of originator brands and the pressure on margins. For GLP-1, PrEP, and certain immunology products, sustained high prescription volumes and market expansion remain important support for medium-term growth at the relevant companies.
Risks
- IQVIA sales data reflect list prices only and do not reflect rebates or discounts, which may overstate the true net-price trend.
- Some products have prescription or sales reporting limitations due to vendor and manufacturer contracts, which may affect data completeness.
- Hospital prescriptions, sample distribution, and channel differences may cause IQVIA weekly prescriptions to understate true usage.
- Early new-launch samples are limited, and extrapolating linearly to 2026 consensus carries high uncertainty.
- Changes in GTN, prescription duration, WAC, capture rate, and payer restrictions can materially affect revenue back-solve results.
- Biosimilar share changes may be driven by rebates, labels, payer strategy, and channel coverage, so TRx share alone cannot determine the economic impact.
What to watch
- Whether weekly and rolling y/y trends in U.S. total market TRx, NRx, and EUTRx continue to slow.
- Whether Cobenfy can reaccelerate from about 3,200 weekly prescriptions and move closer to the path needed for 2026 consensus.
- Whether Yeztugo injectable TRx can continue to grow from about 980 per week and whether payer coverage can convert into actual prescription volume.
- Whether Journavx, with hospital-channel prescriptions not fully visible, has enough combined retail and estimated hospital prescriptions to support 2026 consensus.
- Whether Icotyde prescription growth gradually improves as sample friction eases and early positive physician feedback is validated.
- Y/y growth and per-prescription price changes for immunology products such as Skyrizi, Rinvoq, and Tremfya.
- The pace of latest TRx and sales-share migration for biosimilars of Stelara, Prolia, and Humira.
- Changes in prescription scale, share, and growth rate for LLY and Novo products in the GLP-1 and obesity markets.