U.S. biopharma prescription trends improve modestly, with focus on new product ramp-up and biosimilar penetration
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U.S. biopharma prescription trends improve modestly, with focus on new product ramp-up and biosimilar penetration
Morgan Stanley updates the U.S. pharmaceutical market based on IQVIA data: total TRx grew 2.0% year over year in the week ended July 24, with analysis focused on Cobenfy, Yeztugo, Journavx, Icotyde, and trends in immunology, GLP-1s, and biosimilars.
- In the week ended July 24, 2026, total U.S. market TRx grew 2.0% year over year, up from 1.1% the prior week; the 4-week rolling year-over-year growth rate was 1.5%, and the 12-week rolling rate was 1.2%.
- Cobenfy prescriptions were approximately 3,290 for the week, up from approximately 3,140 the prior week; the report estimates that approximately 183k TRx are needed to reach its 2026 consensus sales expectation of $269 million.
- Yeztugo total TRx was approximately 1,880, up from approximately 1,780 the prior week; the report believes 14% year-over-year PrEP market growth and Descovy share remaining above 45% support expectations beyond 2026.
- Journavx prescriptions were approximately 26,450 for the week, up from approximately 25,930 the prior week, but IQVIA does not capture hospital prescriptions; the GTN and hospital/retail channel mix are key variables.
- Biosimilar penetration for Stelara and Prolia remains a focus: Yesintek's latest weekly share for Stelara was approximately 79%, while Jubbonti's latest weekly TRx share for Prolia was approximately 26%.
Report interpretation
Overview
This report is Morgan Stanley's chart-based tracking report on North American biopharma and the U.S. major pharmaceutical market, with IQVIA prescription and sales databases as its core data sources. It covers total-market TRx/NRx, key products from major companies, new product launch trajectories, biosimilar penetration, immunology pricing, GLP-1s, cardiovascular, diabetes, neurology, infectious disease, and orphan drugs, among other segments.
Core views
Overall, the report shows a modest improvement in U.S. pharmaceutical prescription demand, although divergence across categories and products is pronounced. Total-market TRx year-over-year growth recovered to 2.0%, while the ramp-up pace of newly launched products still needs to be assessed against 2026 consensus sales expectations. Yeztugo, Cobenfy, Journavx, and Icotyde are the key focus products this period; the GLP-1 and PrEP markets remain supported by strong growth, while immunology is jointly influenced by biosimilars, indication expansion, channel mix, and net pricing.
Analysis framework
The report uses weekly IQVIA prescriptions, rolling 4-week/12-week year-over-year growth, extended-unit prescriptions, monthly sales, and product market share for cross-sectional comparisons. For new products, actual TRx trajectories are compared with historical launch curves of comparable products and the prescription volumes required to achieve 2026 consensus revenue, with revenue attainment paths estimated through price-per-prescription, GTN, and channel-mix sensitivities.
Methodology notes
Use total prescriptions, new prescriptions, and extended-unit prescriptions to measure pharmaceutical demand trends.
TRx represents total prescriptions and includes refills; NRx represents new prescriptions but also includes rewritten prescriptions; EUTRx/EUNRx account for longer prescription durations and may be closer to actual demand than prescription counts alone.
Compare weekly prescriptions for newly launched products with historical comparable products and the prescription volumes required to achieve consensus revenue.
The report estimates the TRx paths required for Cobenfy, Yeztugo, Journavx, and Icotyde to reach 2026 or 2Q26 consensus sales, using linear methods for scenario analysis.
Estimate sales ranges using price per prescription, gross-to-net discounts, and channel mix.
IQVIA sales reflect list prices rather than rebates or discounts; therefore, the report emphasizes the importance of GTN, hospital/retail channels, and payer coverage for revenue realization.
Use TRx share or monthly sales share to measure biosimilar substitution for originator brands.
The report covers Actemra, Avastin, Humira, Prolia, Remicade, Rituxan, Stelara, Tysabri, and other products, with particular focus on the latest share changes for Stelara and Prolia.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- North American biopharma industryCore industry asset covered by the report
- Strengths
- Total-market TRx growth has recovered year over year, and multiple therapeutic areas still offer structural growth opportunities.
- Weaknesses
- Growth divergence is pronounced, and some mature brands are pressured by biosimilars, generics, or prescription restrictions.
- Comparison
- The industry view is In-Line; the report is more focused on high-frequency data monitoring than on a directional industry upgrade.
- Risks
- IQVIA data limitations, net-price discounts, channel mix, and prescription coverage may affect revenue inferences.
- BMY / CobenfyKey new product launch tracking
- Strengths
- Weekly prescriptions continued to increase from approximately 3,140 to approximately 3,290.
- Weaknesses
- Reaching the 2026 consensus expectation requires a faster ramp than historical comparable schizophrenia launches.
- Comparison
- The report compares the product with schizophrenia launch curves for Rexulti, Caplyta, and Lybalvi.
- Risks
- Prescription ramp falling short of the implied consensus trajectory, deviations in net-price assumptions, or slower indication uptake than expected.
- GILD / YeztugoPrEP new product launch and revenue path tracking
- Strengths
- Total TRx and injectable TRx both increased sequentially; the PrEP market grew 14% year over year, and Descovy share remained above 45%.
- Weaknesses
- Visibility is limited during the early launch phase, and revenue estimates depend on price, prescription, and channel assumptions.
- Comparison
- Compared with launch curves for Descovy and GSK's Apretude.
- Risks
- Uncertainty around GTN, channel mix, payer requirements, and the path to achieving 2Q26 consensus.
- VRTX / JournavxAcute pain new product launch tracking
- Strengths
- Weekly prescriptions rose to approximately 26,450; actual prescriptions may be higher than IQVIA-visible data if hospital channels are included.
- Weaknesses
- IQVIA does not capture hospital prescriptions, and changes in prescription duration also affect revenue conversion.
- Comparison
- The report estimates the TRx required to reach 2026 consensus under different GTN scenarios.
- Risks
- Uncertainty around the hospital/retail mix, the 50%-70% GTN range, average prescription duration, and realization of consensus revenue.
- JNJ / IcotydeNew product launch tracking for moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis
- Strengths
- Early prescriptions continued to increase, and clinical feedback views it as an attractive oral IL-23 option.
- Weaknesses
- Early IQVIA prescriptions may not fully reflect actual prescribing dynamics, while sampling friction may suppress short-term data.
- Comparison
- The report compares it with launch paths for Otezla, Rinvoq, and recent psoriasis biologics and oral drugs.
- Risks
- Uncertainty around sampling, payer access, physician adoption speed, and the path to achieving 31k-41k TRx.
- ABBV / Skyrizi and RinvoqCore immunology product trends
- Strengths
- Skyrizi and Rinvoq prescriptions maintained double-digit year-over-year growth; Skyrizi's 12-week rolling TRx growth was approximately 25% year over year, versus approximately 24% for Rinvoq.
- Weaknesses
- Humira is significantly affected by competition, with the latest weekly TRx down approximately 46% year over year and 12-week rolling TRx down approximately 49%.
- Comparison
- The report also tracks price and prescription trends for Tremfya, Stelara, Dupixent, Cosentyx, and other immunology products.
- Risks
- Biosimilar substitution, changes in indication mix, net-price pressure, and prescription restrictions may affect revenue quality.
- GLP-1 market: LLY- and Novo-related productsHigh-frequency prescription tracking in diabetes and obesity treatment
- Strengths
- Mounjaro, Zepbound, Ozempic, and Wegovy maintained high prescription bases; LLY's combined GLP-1 T2D+Obesity weekly prescriptions were approximately 1,678,800, versus approximately 1,058,900 for Novo.
- Weaknesses
- Some older products, such as Trulicity, experienced year-over-year prescription declines, and share changes within the category do not fully equate to patient switching.
- Comparison
- The report compares launch curves and market shares for Mounjaro, Zepbound, Ozempic, Wegovy, and other GLP-1 products.
- Risks
- Supply, reimbursement, indication expansion, combination therapy, and interpretation bias in prescription data.
Key data
- U.S. total-market weekly TRx year-over-year growth+2.0%For the week ended July 24, 2026; above +1.1% the prior week and +1.7% in the same period last year.
- U.S. total-market 4-week/12-week rolling TRx year-over-year growth+1.5% / +1.2%Indicates modest prescription demand growth.
- Weekly EUTRx year-over-year growth+1.6%Below weekly TRx year-over-year growth of +2.0%.
- Weekly TRx sequential growth-0.4%Sequential growth was +4.6% the prior week.
- BMY Cobenfy weekly prescriptionsApproximately 3,290Approximately 3,140 the prior week; the 2026 consensus expectation of $269 million implies approximately 183k TRx.
- GILD Yeztugo weekly total TRxApproximately 1,880Approximately 1,780 the prior week; injectable TRx was approximately 1,090 versus approximately 1,050 the prior week.
- Yeztugo sales scenarios2Q26 scenarios of approximately $208 million/$251 million; 2026 U.S. MSe of $1.148 billion vs. VA consensus of $989 millionEstimates are based on different price and prescription assumptions, with channel mix and GTN as key variables.
- VRTX Journavx weekly prescriptionsApproximately 26,450Approximately 25,930 the prior week; IQVIA does not capture hospital prescriptions.
- Scripts required for Journavx to reach 2026 consensusApproximately 1.2 million/2.1 millionBased on a 12-day prescription duration and 50%/70% GTN scenarios, corresponding to 2026 VA consensus revenue of $240 million.
- JNJ Icotyde weekly prescriptionsApproximately 870Approximately 800 the prior week; approximately 31k-41k TRx are expected to be required to reach 2026 U.S. consensus revenue of $255 million.
- Stelara biosimilar shareYesintek approximately 79%, Wezlana approximately 17%Latest weekly shares covering tracking of JNJ Stelara-related biosimilars.
- Prolia biosimilar shareJubbonti approximately 26%, Stoboclo approximately 13%, branded Prolia approximately 54%Latest weekly TRx shares.
Impact & implications
For investment research, the value of this report lies in its framework for high-frequency prescription validation: if TRx for key new products remains above the trajectory required to reach consensus, this would support upward revenue revisions and a more constructive single-stock narrative; if prescription growth, GTN, or channel mix falls short of expectations, confidence in 2026 sales forecasts could weaken. Rising biosimilar share pressures originator-brand revenue while potentially changing pricing and payer strategies in immunology, oncology, osteoporosis, and other areas.
Risks
- IQVIA prescription and sales databases use different definitions, and sales reflect list prices rather than rebates or discounts.
- Some products face prescription or sales reporting restrictions due to contracts, which may understate actual demand.
- Hospital prescriptions for products such as Journavx are not captured by IQVIA, potentially causing prescription trajectories to diverge from actual sales.
- Early launch samples for new products are short, and linear extrapolation to consensus revenue involves substantial uncertainty.
- GTN, channel mix, payer coverage, prior authorization, and step-edit requirements affect revenue realization.
- Biosimilar adoption is influenced by pricing, brand rebates, and payer strategy, rather than being determined solely by clinical substitution.
What to watch
- Whether total-market TRx, EUTRx, and 4-week/12-week rolling year-over-year growth continue to improve in subsequent weeks.
- Whether Cobenfy prescriptions move toward the approximately 183k TRx trajectory implied by the 2026 consensus.
- Yeztugo injectable TRx, PrEP market growth, payer coverage, and whether 2Q26 sales fall within the report's estimated range.
- Journavx hospital/retail prescription mix, average prescription duration, and changes in the GTN range.
- Icotyde's early prescription ramp, easing of sampling friction, and physician adoption speed.
- Changes in TRx or sales share for biosimilars to Stelara, Prolia, Tysabri, and other products.
- Price and prescription trends for immunology products including Skyrizi, Rinvoq, Tremfya, Dupixent, and Cosentyx.
- Prescription share and year-over-year growth of LLY and Novo GLP-1 products in the diabetes and obesity markets.