NAURA (002371): Goldman Sachs maintains Buy on NAURA as China semiconductor capex and new-tool commercialization support growth

Overview

Goldman Sachs is positive on NAURA, arguing that rising Chinese semiconductor capital expenditure, particularly memory capacity expansion, and a broader semiconductor-equipment portfolio should support order and revenue growth. The institution maintains its Buy rating.

Core views

Goldman Sachs expects Chinese semiconductor capital expenditure to remain a central driver of NAURA's growth. It forecasts China semiconductor capex growth of 13%, 15%, 15%, 10% and 10% for 2026E through 2030E, respectively, with total capex reaching US$82bn in 2030E. China wafer-fab-equipment spending is projected to increase 13% in 2026E, 20% in 2027E and 15% in 2028E, from US$44.3bn in 2026E to US$60.7bn in 2028E. The report sees this spending environment, alongside increasing localization of semiconductor equipment, as supportive of NAURA's expansion. Memory investment is the key demand channel in the report's thesis. Goldman Sachs remains positive on Chinese memory-capacity expansion, citing generative AI, market-share gains and product-line expansion. Higher-layer 3D NAND and advanced-memory process complexity is expected to raise demand for etching and deposition tools, where NAURA has broad coverage. The report also argues that memory expansion is relatively less constrained than advanced logic by the availability of leading-edge lithography tools, while qualified equipment can be replicated as customers add capacity. These factors are expected to support NAURA order growth in 2H26 and 2027E. The report also highlights commercialization of new products as a second growth lever. NAURA's new-generation high-end ICP etcher has completed customer validation and entered production introduction. Its tube-type ALD tools have achieved volume deliveries to domestic memory customers. In advanced packaging, hybrid-bonding tools have received batch orders and high-end TSV plating tools have entered scaled supply. Goldman Sachs expects this widening portfolio across advanced memory, logic and packaging to deepen customer penetration and contribute to longer-term order growth. For earnings, Goldman Sachs forecasts NAURA revenue to rise 50% quarter on quarter in 3Q26E and a further 8% in 4Q26E, following a 5% quarter-on-quarter decline in 2Q26. This would produce 52.3% half-on-half revenue growth in 2H26E. Annual revenue is forecast at Rmb50,861m in 2026E, Rmb65,622m in 2027E and Rmb81,106m in 2028E, versus Rmb39,353m in 2025. Forecast net income is Rmb7,430m in 2026E, Rmb13,343m in 2027E and Rmb17,190m in 2028E. Goldman Sachs maintains Buy, with a 12-month target price of Rmb1,200.00.

Analysis framework

The report links a top-down forecast for Chinese semiconductor capital expenditure and wafer-fab-equipment spending to NAURA's exposure to memory, advanced logic and equipment localization. It then assesses product-level commercialization progress and translates the demand outlook into quarterly and annual revenue, profit and margin forecasts.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisSupply-demand framework

  Semiconductor-capex and wafer-fab-equipment demand analysis

  Goldman Sachs uses projected Chinese semiconductor and WFE spending, together with memory-capacity expansion and process complexity, to explain the expected demand for NAURA's equipment.

• Industry AnalysisUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Transmission

  Capex-to-equipment demand transmission

  The report traces how customer capacity additions and higher process complexity increase demand for etching, deposition, cleaning and thermal tools, supporting NAURA's orders and revenue.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• NAURA (002371.SZ)

  Primary covered company and expected beneficiary of Chinese semiconductor capex, memory expansion and localization.

  Strengths

  Broad tool coverage in etching, deposition, cleaning and thermal processes; new products progressing into production introduction, volume delivery, batch orders and scaled supply.

  Comparison

  Memory capacity expansion is described as relatively less constrained by leading-edge lithography availability than advanced logic expansion.

Key data

• China semiconductor capexUS$51.454bn in 2026E; US$68.018bn in 2028E; US$82bn in 2030EForecast growth of 13%/15%/15%/10%/10% in 2026E-30E.
• China WFE spendingUS$44.251bn in 2026E; US$52.951bn in 2027E; US$60.685bn in 2028EForecast year-on-year growth of 13%, 20% and 15%, respectively.
• NAURA quarterly revenue growth+50% QoQ in 3Q26E; +8% QoQ in 4Q26ECompared with -5% QoQ in 2Q26; 2H26E revenue is forecast to grow 52.3% half on half.
• NAURA revenueRmb50,861m in 2026E; Rmb65,622m in 2027E; Rmb81,106m in 2028EVersus Rmb39,353m in 2025.
• NAURA net incomeRmb7,430m in 2026E; Rmb13,343m in 2027E; Rmb17,190m in 2028EGoldman Sachs forecasts continued earnings expansion.
• Valuation snapshotTarget price Rmb1,200.00; price Rmb653.06; upside 83.8%Price as of the 24 September 2026 close.

Impact & implications

Goldman Sachs believes that expanding Chinese memory investment, greater adoption of local semiconductor equipment and NAURA's commercialization of additional process tools can sustain order growth in 2H26 and 2027E. The report's Buy rating reflects this expected combination of demand growth, broader customer penetration and earnings expansion.