Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating on NAURA, focusing on advanced tool orders and new product expansion

Overview

During the Shanghai China Tech Tour, Goldman Sachs met with NAURA management to discuss semiconductor equipment product expansion, the outlook for growth in China's semiconductor capex, and the company's profitability. The report is positive overall, noting that the company, as a leading domestic SPE supplier, benefits from demand growth from memory, advanced logic, and advanced packaging customers, while continuing to expand into higher-end tools such as ion implantation, hybrid bonding, and SiGe EPI.

Core views

The core views are: first, NAURA continues to expand its R&D team and advance enhanced functionality and new tool development, extending its product line from existing strengths into areas such as ion implantation and hybrid bonding; second, China's semiconductor capex still has growth momentum, with strong memory demand and rising domestic penetration, advanced logic supported by the expansion of the local AI chip ecosystem, and growing demand for advanced packaging; third, short-term gross margins may be weighed by new product qualification deliveries and large-order price discounts, but the company is prioritizing profitability and aims to improve margins through an upgraded high-end tool product mix and cost control.

Analysis framework

The report combines management interviews with industry demand assessment and relative valuation. It first evaluates growth momentum from orders, customer mix, domestic penetration, and product expansion, then derives the target valuation using a regression of global SPE company P/E ratios against forward earnings growth.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methods12-month target price and P/E regression

  Estimates a Rmb818 target price using 44.5x 2027E P/E

  Goldman Sachs says the target P/E comes from a regression of global SPE company P/Es against future annual earnings growth, and based on that provides NAURA's 12-month target price.

• Factor frameworkGS Factor Profile

  Compares stock characteristics across growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite indicators

  Goldman Sachs Factor Profile uses standardized rankings to measure growth, financial returns, and valuation multiples, and compares them with the market and peers to provide investment context.

• M&A frameworkM&A Rank

  Rates covered companies from 1 to 3 based on their potential probability of being acquired

  Goldman Sachs discloses that, across its global coverage, it uses qualitative and quantitative factors to assess the likelihood of a company becoming an acquisition target; if the rank is 1 or 2, an M&A component is usually incorporated into the target price.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• NAURA (002371.SZ)

  Core research coverage

  Strengths

  A leading domestic SPE supplier with broad product coverage; order momentum from memory, advanced logic, and advanced packaging customers; continued expansion into high-end tools such as ion implantation, hybrid bonding, and SiGe EPI.

  Weaknesses

  New product qualification and delivery may temporarily weigh on gross margins, and large-order price discounts may also pressure near-term profitability.

  Comparison

  The valuation method references a regression of global SPE company P/Es against forward earnings growth; the rating is compared with other technology and semiconductor-related companies in Goldman Sachs' coverage universe.

  Risks

  Further U.S. export restrictions on Chinese semiconductor companies could delay customer capacity expansion and reduce demand for NAURA's equipment.

Key data

• RatingBuyThe report explicitly states that Buy is maintained.
• Target priceRmb81812-month target price based on 44.5x 2027E P/E.
• Reference priceRmb669.00Listed as NAURA (Rmb669.00) in the company-specific disclosure.
• Potential upsideApproximately 22.3%Estimated using the Rmb818 target price and the Rmb669.00 reference price.
• Ion implantationExpanding from low- and medium-current ion implanters into other productsOne of the semiconductor equipment product expansion directions emphasized by management.
• Hybrid bonding12-inch Die to Wafer equipment Qomola HPD300 launched in March 2026Used to meet rising customer demand.
• Main sources of customer demandMemory, advanced logic, advanced packagingManagement said order or demand momentum in these areas is strong.

Impact & implications

If the report's view proves correct, NAURA should continue to benefit from domestic substitution in China's semiconductor equipment market, memory and advanced logic capacity expansion, and growth in advanced packaging investment. Extending its product line toward higher-end tools should help improve the company's long-term revenue structure and competitive moat, although near-term margins may remain under pressure from new product introductions and large-order discounts.

Risks

• Further U.S. export restrictions on Chinese semiconductor companies could delay customer expansion plans and reduce demand for NAURA's equipment.
• Slower-than-expected expansion at mature-node customers could lead to revenue growth below Goldman Sachs' forecast and weigh on profitability.
• New product qualification and delivery stages may pressure short-term gross margins.
• Price discounts on large orders may put pressure on near-term gross margins.

What to watch

• The sustainability of memory customer orders and the pace of China's semiconductor capex.
• Whether the expansion of the domestic AI chip ecosystem can continue to drive advanced logic equipment orders.
• Demand from advanced packaging customers and the ramp-up of hybrid bonding equipment.
• Qualification, delivery, and revenue contribution from new tools such as ion implantation, hybrid bonding, and SiGe EPI.
• Whether a higher mix of high-end tools and cost control can offset pressure from new product introductions and discounts.
• Policy changes in U.S. export restrictions on China's semiconductor industry.