NAURA advanced tool ramp accelerates; Goldman Sachs maintains Buy and raises target price to Rmb818

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' company research update on NAURA. The core view is that rising China semiconductor capex, the development of AI-related domestic supply chains, and local ecosystem expansion are driving logic and memory customers to accelerate validation and adoption of domestic semiconductor production equipment. As one of the leading domestic equipment players, NAURA is benefiting from the expansion of product lines such as etch, deposition, advanced logic, advanced memory, HBM hybrid bonding, and ion implantation.

Core views

Goldman Sachs maintains its Buy rating on NAURA and raises its 12-month target price to Rmb818. The report believes that the company's strong 2026E order momentum, supported by demand from advanced logic, memory, and advanced packaging customers, will drive revenue growth; meanwhile, product mix upgrades, scaled ramp-up of new products, localization-driven cost reductions in components, and improved production and delivery efficiency are likely to keep overall gross margin in a stable 39.7% to 40.9% range in 2026-2028E.

Analysis framework

The report uses earnings estimate revisions, gross margin outlook, order and capex trend analysis, and relative valuation. On valuation, the target price is based on a 44.5x 2027E P/E, with the target multiple derived from a regression relationship between global semiconductor production equipment company P/Es and future annual earnings growth, and reflecting a re-rating of China's SPE segment driven by advanced memory and logic expansion and faster validation progress.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsP/E Valuation

  2027E P/E

  The 12-month target price of Rmb818 is based on a 44.5x 2027E P/E, versus a previous target multiple of 39.7x. The target P/E references the regression relationship between global SPE company P/Es and future annual earnings growth.

• Factor analysisGS Factor Profile

  Growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite factors

  Goldman Sachs' factor framework evaluates growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite factors by comparing a company's key attributes with the market and industry peers.

• M&A frameworkM&A Rank

  Potential acquisition probability score

  Goldman Sachs uses an M&A rank from 1 to 3 to assess the probability that a covered company becomes an acquisition target; the report discloses the methodology, but it does not appear to be a key driver of NAURA's target price.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• NAURA (002371.SZ)

  Covered name in the report

  Strengths

  Benefits from rising China semiconductor capex and accelerated validation and adoption of domestic SPE tools; etch and deposition are key products; new categories such as advanced logic, memory, HBM hybrid bonding, and ion implantation provide growth space.

  Weaknesses

  The validation and delivery process for new products may weigh on gross margin in the near term; revenue growth still depends on the pace of customer capacity expansion.

  Comparison

  The valuation target references the regression relationship between global SPE company P/Es and future earnings growth; the report believes the China SPE segment is re-rated by advanced memory and logic expansion.

  Risks

  Further U.S. export restrictions could delay capacity expansion by Chinese semiconductor companies; weaker-than-expected expansion by mature-node customers could pressure revenue and earnings.

• China semiconductor equipment supply chain

  Upstream/industry backdrop

  Strengths

  The expansion of the domestic AI supply chain, computing, HBM, and related ecosystems is driving domestic equipment demand; customers are accelerating validation and adoption of domestic tools.

  Weaknesses

  Industry capex and customer validation pace are cyclical and subject to policy uncertainty.

  Comparison

  Compared with global equipment peers, the China SPE segment may command a valuation premium from domestic substitution and advanced process expansion.

  Risks

  External export controls, slower customer capacity expansion, and validation progress below expectations.

Key data

• China semiconductor capex forecastUS$44.6bn/US$44.9bnCorresponding to 2026E/2027E, driven by the domestic AI supply chain and local ecosystem expansion.
• Gross margin outlook39.7%~40.9%Goldman Sachs expects NAURA's overall gross margin to remain stable in 2026-2028E; 1Q26 was 40.8%.
• Earnings estimate revisions2027E/2028E both raised by 2%Mainly driven by higher revenue assumptions for advanced logic and memory equipment, with gross margin and expense ratios broadly unchanged.
• Target priceRmb818.0Previously Rmb719.0, maintaining a Buy rating.
• Target valuation multiple44.5x 2027E P/EPreviously 39.7x, reflecting earnings growth and a re-rating of the China SPE segment.
• 12-month forward P/E chart indicationAround the upper-middle end of 40xThe chart shows valuation rebounding to around or above the mean from late 2025 to early 2026, with a long-term average of about 39x.

Impact & implications

If the report's view materializes, NAURA stands to benefit from the localization of China's semiconductor equipment industry and the expansion of investment in advanced nodes, memory, and advanced packaging, which could support both revenue and valuation. For investors, the key implication is that the company is not only a beneficiary of mature-node capacity expansion, but may also enhance its long-term growth and product mix through new categories such as advanced logic, DRAM, 3D NAND, HBM hybrid bonding, and ion implantation.

Risks

• Further U.S. restrictions on exports to Chinese semiconductor companies could delay customer expansion plans and weaken demand for NAURA's equipment.
• Weaker-than-expected capacity expansion by mature-node customers could cause revenue growth and earnings to fall below Goldman Sachs' current forecasts.
• Validation, ramp-up, and delivery of new products may pressure gross margins in the near term.
• If demand for advanced logic, memory, or advanced packaging falls short of expectations, the re-rating thesis may weaken.

What to watch

• Whether 2026E order momentum can continue to translate into revenue recognition.
• Customer validation and mass production introduction progress for advanced logic, 3D NAND, DRAM, and HBM hybrid bonding tools.
• The ramp speed of new categories such as etch, deposition, and ion implantation.
• Whether 2026-2028E gross margin stays within the 39.7%~40.9% range.
• Whether China semiconductor capex reaches the 2026/2027E expectations of US$44.6bn/US$44.9bn.
• Changes in U.S. export control policy and their impact on customer expansion plans.