Global cross-asset flows, liquidity and market positioning: J.P. Morgan sees tech bond issuance adding only modest pressure to global yields as equity-flow weakness may prove temporary.

Overview

This global cross-asset flows and liquidity update examines whether increased AI- and technology-related bond issuance is materially lifting global yields, then reviews equity fund flows, momentum positioning in bond and equity markets, and positioning in gold and bitcoin.

Core views

J.P. Morgan frames the rise in AI-related debt issuance as a duration-supply question rather than solely a growth or real-yield question. It measures the stock of bonds in the US Aggregate and Euro Aggregate indices in 10-year-equivalent terms, using each index's duration relative to 10-year Treasuries or Bunds. In the US, corporate duration supply was relatively flat in 2024 and 2025 but increased materially in 2026 to date, alongside an expected rise in high-grade corporate net supply from about $615bn in 2025 to nearly $1tr in 2026. Longer-dated issuance by hyperscalers has contributed. Corporate bonds represented less than 10% of the combined corporate-and-Treasury duration impulse in 2025 but about 40% in 2026; Treasuries nevertheless remain the majority of the combined impulse. In Europe, corporate duration supply rose steadily in 2025 and 2026, but its lower average duration makes the aggregate impulse smaller than that of government bonds; the corporate share of the combined EuroAgg impulse fell from roughly 40% in 2025 to around 20% in 2026 to date. The report estimates US technology-sector high-grade and high-yield net issuance at about $335bn in 2026, versus roughly $140bn in 2025, an increase of about $200bn. European gross technology issuance is tracking just above €90bn annualized, versus around €35bn in 2025; assuming most of this year's increase is net issuance, this adds about €55bn, or close to $60bn. The combined increase in technology net issuance is therefore about $260bn. Against J.P. Morgan's estimated $4.9tr of global net bond issuance, it judges the increase manageable. Its global supply-demand relationship implies that a $260bn deterioration in the balance would raise Global Aggregate yields by about 10–15bp. Adding annual changes in six-month OIS rates to the regression lowers the estimate to around 5–10bp, although the report cautions that policy rates and excess bond supply are not independent and that this makes the regression less reliable. Global equity fund flows decelerated sharply in September after five consecutive strong months, reaching close to zero when leveraged-ETF rebalancing flows are included. J.P. Morgan notes this was unusual since retail-driven equity-fund demand began strengthening in late 2023, with April 2024 the only comparable episode. In April 2024, rising major-central-bank policy-rate expectations and bond yields coincided with weak equity flows, but the weakness proved short lived and the equity-fund impulse re-emerged strongly from May. The report does not treat the current episode as settled, but its bias is that it will again be temporary because retail call-option buying and the relative performance of retail-favorite equities are also subdued. Rising yields have pushed momentum indicators in major bond futures toward more extreme negative readings. The Bund signal fell just below -1.5 standard deviations before moderating to -1.4; 10-year Treasury and JGB signals reached about -1.4 and then eased to around -1.2, while gilts moved from around -1.2 to -0.8. The report considers this range one in which mean reversion or profit-taking risk rises. The 10-year OAT-versus-Bund momentum signal reached -1.6 on September 15 and remained -1.5 at the time of writing. By contrast, momentum readings for the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei and MSCI EM had moderated to between +0.4 and +0.8 and were not extreme relative to earlier in the year. The report also reviews the recent retreat in the gold-and-bitcoin debasement trade following higher real yields and the Senate's failure to advance the Clarity Act. Both gold and bitcoin ETFs recorded significant inflows since late July, but gold ETF demand fully recovered earlier-year outflows whereas bitcoin ETFs recovered about half, with recent signs of retreat. J.P. Morgan sees room for bitcoin ETF demand to normalize if news flow improves. Futures-position proxies remain elevated for both assets, indicating institutional support with only modest recent retreat. The key contrast is ETF short interest: IBIT remains near year-to-date highs while GLD short interest is historically below average. Together with the put-to-call open-interest gap, this indicates more sceptical or hedged bitcoin positioning than gold and could provide relative support for bitcoin if hedging demand declines.

Analysis framework

The report combines fund-flow, ETF, futures-positioning, short-interest and options data with a duration-equivalent bond-supply analysis. It estimates yield sensitivity using a global bond supply-demand regression, compares current flow and momentum conditions with historical episodes, and uses z-scores, open interest, implied volatility and positioning proxies to identify unusually stretched market conditions.

Methodology notes

• Fixed Income and CreditDuration and Convexity Analysis

  Duration-equivalent bond-supply analysis

  The report converts outstanding US Aggregate and Euro Aggregate bonds into 10-year-equivalent amounts using index duration relative to 10-year government benchmarks, allowing corporate and government duration supply to be compared.

• Fixed Income and CreditSpread analysis

  Global bond supply-demand yield sensitivity

  J.P. Morgan relates annual changes in excess bond supply—the difference between supply and demand—to changes in Global Aggregate yields to estimate the yield effect of additional technology issuance.

• Quantitative, Factor, and Portfolio TheoryStyle factor analysis

  Trend-following momentum signals

  Short- and long-horizon return momentum signals are combined into volatility-adjusted z-scores; extreme readings are used to flag potential mean reversion or profit-taking risk.

• Other

  Cross-asset positioning monitor

  The monitor aggregates futures positions, momentum signals, mutual-fund and hedge-fund betas, surveys, allocation estimates and ETF short interest into percentile-based positioning indicators.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Global Aggregate bond index

  Broad yield benchmark affected by the estimated deterioration in global bond supply-demand balance.

  Strengths

  Technology issuance is small relative to estimated $4.9tr global net bond issuance.

  Weaknesses

  Corporate duration impulse has increased materially in 2026.

  Comparison

  Estimated yield effect is 10–15bp, or 5–10bp after including six-month OIS changes.

  Risks

  Other yield drivers and the interaction between policy rates and excess supply can reduce regression reliability.

• Gold

  One manifestation of the debasement trade reviewed through ETF flows, futures positioning and short interest.

  Strengths

  Gold ETF demand has fully recovered earlier-year outflows and futures positioning remains elevated.

  Weaknesses

  The trade recently retreated amid higher real yields.

  Comparison

  Gold ETF demand has recovered more fully than bitcoin ETF demand, while GLD short interest is below historical average.

  Risks

  Other factors may affect gold's trajectory.

• Bitcoin

  The other manifestation of the debasement trade reviewed against gold.

  Strengths

  Significant ETF inflows since late July and elevated futures-position proxies; demand could normalize if news flow improves.

  Weaknesses

  Bitcoin ETFs have recovered only about half of earlier outflows and showed some recent retreat.

  Comparison

  IBIT short interest is near year-to-date highs versus historically below-average GLD short interest.

  Risks

  Elevated hedging demand and a more sceptical positioning backdrop than gold.

Key data

• Increase in combined tech net bond issuanceAbout $260bn in 2026 versus 2025Approximately $200bn from the US and close to $60bn from Europe.
• Global net bond issuance estimateAbout $4.9trJ.P. Morgan's global bond supply-demand benchmark.
• Estimated Global Agg yield impact10–15bpEstimated effect of a $260bn deterioration in the supply-demand balance; 5–10bp when annual changes in six-month OIS rates are included.
• US high-grade corporate net supplyNearly $1tr in 2026 versus around $615bn in 2025Backdrop to the increase in US corporate duration supply.
• US tech net bond issuanceAround $335bn in 2026 versus around $140bn in 2025High-grade and high-yield issuance forecast.
• Bund momentum signal-1.4 standard deviationsAfter falling just below -1.5 standard deviations.
• 10-year OAT versus Bund momentum signal-1.5 standard deviationsReached -1.6 on September 15.

Impact & implications

J.P. Morgan's central implication is that higher technology-related issuance has increased corporate duration supply but remains modest relative to total global bond issuance, limiting the estimated upward effect on broad global bond yields. Its flow and positioning work suggests monitoring whether retail equity demand rebounds, whether stretched bond momentum mean-reverts, and whether bitcoin hedging demand declines relative to gold.

Risks

• The relationship between excess bond supply, policy-rate expectations and Global Aggregate yields may be less reliable because the variables are not independent.
• Whether September's equity-flow weakness becomes another short-lived contrarian signal remains uncertain.
• Higher real bond yields and adverse news flow may continue to weigh on gold and bitcoin demand.
• Other factors beyond positioning may affect the future paths of bitcoin and gold.

What to watch

• Technology-sector bond issuance and the resulting corporate duration impulse relative to Treasury and government-bond supply.
• Global equity fund flows, retail call-option activity and performance of retail-favorite equities for signs of a renewed retail impulse.
• Whether negative momentum signals in Bunds, Treasuries, JGBs, gilts and OATs versus Bunds trigger mean reversion or profit taking.
• Bitcoin ETF flows, IBIT short interest and put-to-call positioning relative to GLD.
• The path of real bond yields and developments affecting the debasement trade, including digital-asset policy news.