BofA Bull & Bear has risen to 9.5, with cross-asset flows rotating into cash and bonds

Overview

This report is Bank of America’s global investment strategy weekly flows report, The Flow Show, with core focus on cross-asset flows, the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator, YTD performance in 2026, and the U.S. long-term economic and financial market comparison. The report shows that in the week, flows moved clearly into cash and bonds and out of stocks, gold, and crypto assets; at the same time, the risk sentiment indicator rose to a high level and triggered a Sell signal.

Core views

The core views of the report are: first, the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator rose to 9.5, indicating risk appetite is in a relatively hot state; historically, after a Sell signal, global equities have seen average pullbacks of about 2%-3% over 2-3 months, with a hit rate of around 60% and maximum drawdowns up to 15%-20%. Second, flow patterns are defensive, with significant inflows into cash and bonds, while stocks, gold, and crypto assets saw outflows. Third, stock outflows were not across the board: tech still received strong inflows and is expected to set a record YTD 2026 inflow of $152bn. Fourth, YTD 2026 asset performance was differentiated, with commods, oil, intl stocks, and SPX positive returns, while gold and bitcoin were negative.

Analysis framework

The report uses flow tracking, cross-asset return ranking, private bank client asset allocation monitoring, the BofA proprietary risk sentiment indicator, and long-run historical comparison to assess current market risk appetite, asset rotation, and potential drawdown risk.

Methodology notes

• Flow analysisGlobal flows by asset class

  Cross-asset flows

  By observing inflows and outflows in cash, bonds, stocks, gold, crypto assets, and segmented sectors, the report tracks changes in market risk appetite and asset allocation.

• Sentiment indicatorBofA Bull & Bear Indicator

  Sell risk-appetite signal

  The indicator has risen from 9.1 to 9.5, and the report says the signal is Sell; historically, after similar signals, global equities have declined about 2%-3% on average in 2-3 months.

• Private-client allocationBofA private client flows & allocations

  GWIM client asset allocation

  The report uses the allocation and ETF flows of BofA private clients with $4.5tn AUM to observe changes in preferences for equities, bonds, cash, and sovereign bond duration.

• Historical comparison250 years of US demographic, economic & financial history

  U.S. long-term economy and market returns

  By comparing U.S. population, GDP, inflation, debt, treasury yields, and equity returns since independence, it provides a multi-cycle context.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Global equities

  Risk asset directly constrained by the BofA Bull & Bear Sell signal

  Strengths

  Sectors such as tech, financials, and communication services still had inflows, and some regions, including Japan equities, received inflows.

  Weaknesses

  Overall stock weekly outflow was $13.9bn, US equities outflow $17.2bn, with Europe and EM also showing continuous outflows.

  Comparison

  Compared with cash and bonds, stock flows were clearly weaker this week.

  Risks

  Historically, after a Sell signal, global stocks have on average declined about 2%-3% in 2-3 months, with maximum drawdowns up to 15%-20%.

• Cash

  The largest inflow asset class this week

  Strengths

  Weekly inflow of $55.0bn indicates stronger defensive posture and liquidity demand.

  Weaknesses

  A higher cash allocation may reflect reduced attractiveness of risky assets.

  Comparison

  Inflows were larger than bonds and all major risky assets.

  Risks

  If risk appetite continues to heat up or interest-rate expectations shift, the opportunity cost of cash may rise.

• Bonds

  The main beneficiary asset class

  Strengths

  Weekly inflow of $29.1bn, with signs of inflows in IG bonds, HY bonds, munis, TIPS, and bank loans.

  Weaknesses

  Government bond YTD return is -1.2%, still vulnerable to rate volatility.

  Comparison

  Flows were clearly stronger than for stocks, gold, and crypto assets.

  Risks

  Rate increases, widening credit spreads, or renewed inflation could pressure bond returns.

• Tech stocks/tech funds

  Strongest flow direction within equities

  Strengths

  Weekly inflows around $14.3bn-$14.4bn, and the report says YTD inflows could set a record of $152bn.

  Weaknesses

  Concentrated flows may increase crowding risk.

  Comparison

  Even against broad equity outflows, tech still attracted inflows.

  Risks

  If AI-related expectations cool, valuation and flow pressure could emerge simultaneously.

• Gold/precious metals

  Asset class with weekly outflows

  Strengths

  Still may serve as inflation and risk hedge over the long run.

  Weaknesses

  Gold outflow of $3.0bn this week, seventh consecutive week of outflow; YTD gold return in 2026 is -4.7%.

  Comparison

  Relative to cash and bonds, gold’s weekly flow is markedly weaker.

  Risks

  Rising real yields, a stronger US dollar, or weaker hedging demand may continue to weigh on gold.

• Crypto/bitcoin

  High-volatility risk asset

  Strengths

  May show resilience during periods of expanding risk appetite.

  Weaknesses

  Crypto outflow of $2.0bn for the week, the largest since Nov'25; bitcoin YTD return is -30.1%.

  Comparison

  Compared with traditional equities and bonds, both flows and returns were weaker.

  Risks

  High volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and liquidity compression risks are prominent.

Key data

• BofA Bull & Bear Indicator9.5It rose from 9.1 to 9.5, and the report says the signal is Sell.
• Cash weekly flow+$55.0bnThe largest inflow asset class this week.
• Bond weekly flow+$29.1bnBonds have had inflows for 62 consecutive weeks.
• Equity weekly flow-$13.9bnETF inflow of $5.2bn, mutual funds outflow of $18.8bn.
• Gold weekly flow-$3.0bnOutflow for the 7th consecutive week, the longest consecutive outflow since Mar'24.
• Crypto asset weekly flow-$2.0bnLargest outflow since Nov'25.
• IG bonds flow+$17.2bnContinuous inflows for 13 weeks.
• HY bonds flow+$3.4bnLargest inflow since May'25.
• US equities flow-$17.2bnLargest outflow since Mar'26.
• Tech flowabout +$14.3bn to +$14.4bnThe report says YTD 2026 inflows could reach a record $152bn.
• BofA private clients AUM$4.5tnAllocation: 65.4% equities, 17.6% bonds, 9.8% cash.
• YTD 2026 commodities return33.3%One of the YTD cross-asset returns listed in the report.
• YTD 2026 gold return-4.7%One of the YTD cross-asset returns listed in the report.
• YTD 2026 bitcoin return-30.1%One of the YTD cross-asset returns listed in the report.

Impact & implications

The report’s investment implications are cautious: the high-level risk sentiment indicator and Sell signal mean global equities face pullback risk in the coming months; ongoing flows into cash and bonds reflect a rising preference for liquidity and stable income; but technology, financials, and communication services still receive support, suggesting structural crowding and dispersion within equities are continuing. The outflows from gold and crypto assets indicate that demand for safe-haven or high-volatility asset hedges has cooled.

Risks

• The BofA Bull & Bear Indicator is at 9.5 with a Sell signal, indicating near-term drawdown risk for risky assets.
• Global equities could experience average declines of 2%-3% in 2-3 months after historical Sell signals, with maximum drawdowns once reaching 15%-20%.
• Tech inflows near record levels may raise risks of crowded positioning and valuation compression.
• Outflows in energy, materials, gold, and crypto indicate that some cyclical and high-volatility assets are under pressure.
• The report content is general information and does not constitute individualized investment advice.

What to watch

• Whether the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator continues to hold or strengthen the Sell signal.
• Whether inflows into cash and bonds continue, and whether stock outflows widen.
• Whether tech flows continue to move toward the YTD 2026 record of $152bn.
• Whether continuous outflows in US equities, Europe equities, and EM equities ease.
• Whether the gold streak of outflows ends, and whether the relative price trend between TLT and gold continues to reverse.
• Whether BofA private clients continue shifting from T-bills to T-notes and extending duration.