Agentic commerce in payments and fintech: Goldman Sachs sees agentic commerce as a long-term tailwind for payment networks, modern processors and BNPL

Overview

This investor-feedback note examines how agentic commerce could reshape payments and fintech. Goldman Sachs views the transition as broadly constructive for card networks, modern e-commerce processors and BNPL providers, while emphasizing that the current ecosystem remains early-stage and that protocol, fraud-liability and wallet-integration questions must be resolved.

Core views

Goldman Sachs frames agentic commerce as a potential accelerator of e-commerce volumes. Its central thesis is that the global card networks, Visa and Mastercard, are well placed because their existing network effects make carded payments a comparatively easy way to enable agent-led purchases. Beyond volume growth, the report sees potential transaction-yield support from basket fragmentation and lower average order values, alongside greater attachment of value-added services. Over the longer term, it expects most agentic transactions to use network tokenization services—Visa Token Service and Mastercard Digital Enablement Service—rather than leave payment credentials exposed in fragmented platform-specific flows. The report describes Meta's Muse, launched on September 8, 2026, as an early example of the current architecture. Muse payments rely heavily on Stripe infrastructure and Stripe Link's Wallet for Agents. A transaction can use Stripe's existing token infrastructure, including Shared Payment Tokens or Link Payment Tokens, or a single-use virtual card that is entered at the merchant checkout. Goldman Sachs considers the virtual-card-heavy model a time-to-market solution rather than the eventual technical end state. It identifies scaling drawbacks: a two-step consumer-to-platform then platform-to-merchant flow can complicate fraud and chargebacks when Stripe intermediates for non-Stripe merchants; reduced issuer and merchant data can impair approval rates, merchant loyalty and issuer rewards. The expected evolution is toward streamlined network tokenization, with major consumer wallets such as Apple Pay and Google Pay potentially becoming available in Muse and wallet choice increasingly resembling current mobile-commerce behavior. The research separates agentic commerce into product discovery, purchase conversion and enabling protocols. It says consumer-facing LLMs are already affecting the upper funnel by helping users discover, research, compare and screen products against criteria such as shipping time and price. End-to-end purchase and payment remain earlier-stage. Current implementation models include browser-based agents, embedded modules, embedded digital wallets and personal operating-system agents. Wider adoption requires protocols that connect merchant inventory, shopping agents and payment providers, but Goldman Sachs stresses that stakeholder rules and liabilities still need to be established. Stripe Link's wallet lets consumers use a saved payment method at Link-accepting merchants through Shared Payment Tokens; where a merchant does not accept Link, it can provision a single-use virtual card after the consumer grants account access and approves the transaction. The report also highlights Google Universal Commerce Protocol and its Agent Payments Protocol, merchant-agent frameworks, Stripe's Agentic Commerce Protocol, and network payment protocols such as Visa Trusted Agent Protocol and Mastercard Agent Pay. These network protocols verify agents, record user intent and track purchase mandates while relying on tokenization services to create secure credentials. Goldman Sachs notes that more than 50% of Visa/Mastercard e-commerce transactions are already tokenized, providing a base for agentic-payment adoption. For payment processing, Goldman Sachs expects agentic commerce to increase processing complexity and make authorization rates and technical-integration quality more important competitive measures. It believes this reinforces a market structure that has historically favored modern e-commerce processors such as Stripe and Adyen over incumbent platforms assembled through acquisitions, including Global Payments and Fiserv. The report does not regard agentic commerce as inherently negative for PayPal, because consumer wallet choice should still drive payment volumes. However, it does not expect PayPal's competitive dynamics to improve without changes to its merchant and consumer value proposition. Its two-sided network has near-term strategic value because agents and payment credentials must be tied to an end consumer, and PayPal's enablement within Muse is consistent with that view. For Visa and Mastercard, the report identifies cybersecurity and risk products as a particularly important long-term opportunity. Tokenized transactions reduce exposure of underlying credentials and have historically lowered online fraud while improving authorization rates. Agentic payment protocols add information such as user intent and cart mandates on top of tokenization. Goldman Sachs believes the networks' scale, data and fraud offerings create sticky, mission-critical solutions for issuers and acquirers. It estimates that a 5% acceleration in Visa/Mastercard cybersecurity-related value-added services would increase VAS growth by 90 basis points for Visa and 200 basis points for Mastercard, and total net-revenue growth by 20 basis points and 80 basis points, respectively. Mastercard is seen as particularly well positioned in fraud and identity verification through product investments and acquisitions, while it states that its AI-powered Decision Intelligence can generate 40% more fraud detection. The report nevertheless identifies a near-term debate over how quickly agentic tokenization will proliferate and whether payment processors, banks and technology companies can establish competing frameworks. Fraud liability is also unresolved: the report's framework lists responsibility as established for card-present, card-not-present and non-card transactions but still to be determined for agentic commerce. For consumer fintech, Goldman Sachs expects consumers to retain their preferred rewards-credit-card or debit-card choices in agentic checkout. At the margin, however, agents may be able to select cheaper and simpler financing at the point of sale, which the report sees as supportive for BNPL providers, especially Affirm and Klarna. Investor concerns have focused on the absence of direct BNPL integration in Muse and on whether agentic checkout weakens customer acquisition by reducing merchants' upper-funnel advertising. Goldman Sachs believes additions of PayPal and Shop Pay indicate that payment infrastructure will broaden, and it would not be surprised to see direct BNPL integrations over time because credit availability and card-conversion maximization are strong incentives. Apple Pay and Google Pay would also be a useful next step because both integrate directly with Affirm and Klarna. The report argues that ongoing demand for point-of-sale credit should continue to support BNPL acquisition, even if the loss of effectively free merchant-site advertising creates some marginal pressure.

Analysis framework

Goldman Sachs begins with investor debates around the present Muse and Stripe implementation, then contrasts the current payment flow with a likely tokenized future state. It maps the agentic-commerce stack from discovery through checkout and protocols, evaluates competitive implications for processors and wallets, and assesses payment-network and BNPL outcomes through payment volumes, authorization quality, fraud prevention, consumer financing choice and integration pathways.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Transmission

  Agentic-commerce ecosystem mapping

  The report traces how discovery agents, merchants, wallets, processors, card networks, tokenization and financing providers interact, then assesses how changes in the payment flow affect each participant.

• Industry AnalysisSupply-demand framework

  Payment-volume, consumer-choice and financing-demand analysis

  Goldman Sachs links agent-led shopping adoption and checkout choice to e-commerce payment volumes, demand for point-of-sale financing and value-added-service usage.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Visa Inc. (V)

  Card-network beneficiary of agentic-commerce volumes, tokenization and cybersecurity-related value-added services.

  Strengths

  Visa Token Service, network scale, tokenization and a broad risk-and-security offering.

  Weaknesses

  The report identifies debate over the pace at which agentic tokenization will proliferate.

  Comparison

  Viewed alongside Mastercard as well positioned; Mastercard is highlighted as particularly strong in fraud and identity verification.

  Risks

  Weaker macro environment, slower-than-expected cross-border recovery, competition and unfavorable regulation.

• Mastercard Inc. (MA)

  Card-network beneficiary of agentic payments, tokenization, fraud prevention and value-added services.

  Strengths

  Mastercard Digital Enablement Service, Agent Pay, product investments and acquisitions in fraud and identity verification.

  Weaknesses

  Near-term ecosystem competition may emerge from processors, banks and technology companies with their own frameworks.

  Comparison

  The report estimates a larger VAS and total-revenue growth sensitivity for Mastercard than Visa from a cybersecurity VAS acceleration.

  Risks

  Weaker macro environment, slower-than-expected cross-border recovery, competition and regulation.

• Affirm Holdings (AFRM)

  BNPL provider that could benefit if agents surface cheaper and simpler point-of-sale financing.

  Strengths

  Potential direct and wallet-based integration routes; direct integrations with Apple Pay and Google Pay.

  Weaknesses

  Current lack of direct integration in Muse is an investor concern.

  Comparison

  Discussed with Klarna as a modern credit issuer positioned to take share as consumer behavior shifts.

  Risks

  Worsening macro environment, increasing competition and unfavorable regulation.

• Klarna Group Plc. (KLAR)

  BNPL provider that could benefit from agent-assisted financing selection at checkout.

  Strengths

  Lower consumer costs are viewed as supportive in an agentic-commerce environment; direct integrations with Apple Pay and Google Pay.

  Weaknesses

  Investor debate includes reliance on wallet integrations versus direct integrations and possible loss of merchant-site upper-funnel advertising.

  Comparison

  Discussed with Affirm as a likely BNPL beneficiary of continued point-of-sale credit demand.

  Risks

  Underwriting risk, worsening competition, slower-than-expected BNPL adoption, merchant pressure on MDRs and less favorable regulation.

• PayPal Holdings

  Wallet participant with near-term strategic value from its two-sided ecosystem and Muse enablement.

  Strengths

  Ability to link agents and payment credentials to end consumers; recent enablement within Muse.

  Weaknesses

  Goldman Sachs does not expect its competitive dynamics to improve without structural changes to its positioning and merchant/consumer value proposition.

  Comparison

  Unlike Stripe and Adyen, PayPal is not viewed as gaining an improved competitive position solely from agentic commerce.

• Stripe

  Current payment-infrastructure provider for Meta Muse through Link's Wallet for Agents.

  Strengths

  Shared Payment Tokens, Link Payment Tokens, agent wallet infrastructure and Agentic Commerce Protocol.

  Weaknesses

  The virtual-card-heavy current flow may create fraud, chargeback, data-loss and approval-rate issues as it scales.

  Comparison

  Classed with Adyen as a modern processor benefiting from e-commerce processing dynamics.

• Adyen

  Modern e-commerce processor viewed as benefiting from the increasing importance of technical integration and authorization quality.

  Strengths

  The report cites its long-run competitive position in e-commerce payments.

  Comparison

  Contrasted with incumbent processors such as Global Payments and Fiserv.

Key data

• Visa and Mastercard e-commerce tokenization>50% of V/MA e-commerce transactionsThe report cites this installed tokenization base as foundational for agentic payments.
• Cybersecurity VAS sensitivity5% acceleration in cybersecurity-related VASEstimated to add 90bps to Visa VAS growth and 200bps to Mastercard VAS growth.
• Visa total net-revenue sensitivity20bps accelerationGoldman Sachs estimate from a 5% acceleration in cybersecurity-related VAS.
• Mastercard total net-revenue sensitivity80bps accelerationGoldman Sachs estimate from a 5% acceleration in cybersecurity-related VAS.
• Mastercard fraud detection40% more fraud detectionAttributed to Mastercard's AI-powered Decision Intelligence.
• Visa 12-month price target$438Based on a 27x Q5-Q8 P/E multiple.
• Mastercard 12-month price target$701Based on an approximately 28x multiple on Q5-Q8 EPS estimates.
• Affirm 12-month price target$115Based on an approximately 21x EBIT less SBC multiple on Q5-Q8 estimates.
• Klarna 12-month price target$22Based on an approximately 14x EV multiple on Q5-Q8 adjusted operating income less SBC.

Impact & implications

The report sees a path for agentic commerce to increase e-commerce activity while making secure tokenization, agent verification, fraud controls and high-quality payment integrations more valuable. It views Visa and Mastercard as structural beneficiaries, expects modern processors to retain competitive advantages, and sees BNPL providers as potential beneficiaries if agentic checkout helps consumers optimize point-of-sale financing.

Risks

• Fraud liability among parties in agentic commerce remains unresolved.
• Broader adoption requires clearer rules and liabilities for ecosystem participants.
• The rollout of network agentic-tokenization infrastructure may take longer than investors expect.
• Competing payment frameworks from processors, banks and technology companies could create near-term debate over control of tokenization.
• Company-specific risks disclosed include macro weakness, competition and unfavorable regulation; Klarna also faces underwriting risk, adoption risk and merchant pressure on MDRs.

What to watch

• The evolution of Muse from virtual-card-heavy payments toward network tokenization and broader wallet availability.
• Whether Apple Pay, Google Pay and BNPL providers gain direct or expanded integrations in agentic checkout.
• Adoption of Visa Trusted Agent Protocol, Mastercard Agent Pay and related tokenization services.
• Progress on agentic-commerce protocols and rules allocating fraud liability.
• Authorization rates, fraud outcomes and the attach rate of network cybersecurity and risk services.