Firmly connects merchants, LLMs, payment gateways, and marketplace platforms through a single API to drive agentic commerce adoption

Overview

This report is part of UBS's Payments Innovation Events Series, with its core content centered on a discussion with Firmly co-founder and CEO Kumar N. Senthil about agentic commerce. Firmly provides an infrastructure layer that connects merchants, LLMs, payment gateways, and marketplace platforms, with the goal of enabling merchants to access new AI shopping and non-AI distribution channels with less engineering effort while retaining Merchant of Record control, PSP flexibility, and real-time checkout logic.

Core views

UBS believes that understanding Firmly helps investors grasp the impact agentic commerce could have on the existing payments ecosystem, especially transaction uplift and value-added service opportunities. The topic is relevant for investors focused on card networks, merchant acquiring, online checkout, and fintech companies such as Visa, Mastercard, Adyen, Global Payments, Fiserv, Shopify, Affirm, Klarna, and PayPal. The report also notes that agentic-commerce scaling is still at an early stage; 2026 is more of an infrastructure-build year, with some transaction volume possibly appearing in the latter part of the year, while more meaningful scale may not emerge until 2027. Current obstacles include protocol uncertainty, unclear merchant ROI, and major platforms not yet fully enabled.

Analysis framework

The report combines expert interviews with thematic industry research: on one hand, it organizes Firmly management's explanation of product architecture, merchant onboarding, PSP partnerships, channel distribution, monetization model, and customer profile; on the other, it places Firmly within the ecosystem of payment service providers, SaaS platforms, merchant acquiring, online checkout, and AI shopping agents to analyze potential value-added services and competitive effects.

Methodology notes

• Industry thematic researchExpert interviews and ecosystem mapping

  Understanding where emerging payment infrastructure sits in the value chain through conversations with company management

  UBS's discussion with Firmly's founder focuses on qualitative analysis of the technical integration approach, merchant value proposition, PSP partnerships, channel distribution, economics, and adoption pace rather than traditional financial-model valuation.

• Payments ecosystem analysisValue-added service opportunity identification

  PSPs and SaaS platforms may provide merchants with catalog, data, and payment handshake services required for agentic commerce

  The report argues that merchants may eventually need services such as catalog protocol adaptation, accurate transmission of inventory and image data, management of shipping and return policies, pricing synchronization, and receipt of tokenization handshakes from different platforms.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• SHOPIFY INC (SHOP.US)

  A related SaaS and merchant-platform ecosystem participant

  Strengths

  Shopify has a merchant base and catalog-related capabilities, and the report notes that Shopify catalog-related offerings could be part of the supporting services for agentic commerce.

  Weaknesses

  Firmly has historically focused more on non-Shopify merchants, suggesting that the non-Shopify ecosystem may also seek an independent infrastructure solution.

  Comparison

  Compared with an independent infrastructure provider, Shopify is closer to merchant systems and catalog data; however, an independent solution may be better suited for cross-platform, cross-PSP, and non-Shopify merchants.

  Risks

  Agentic-commerce channel fragmentation, protocol changes, and unclear merchant ROI may slow monetization of related services.

• PAYPAL HOLDINGS INC (PYPL.US)

  A participant in the online checkout and payment-method ecosystem

  Strengths

  Firmly currently supports major payment methods including PayPal; PayPal's acquisition of Cymbio is cited in the report as an example of acquiring catalog or channel capabilities.

  Weaknesses

  If agentic commerce reshapes checkout entry points, traditional online checkout brands will need to ensure visibility and usability in new channels and tokenization handshakes.

  Comparison

  Compared with PSPs or merchant platforms, PayPal is more focused on payment methods and checkout branding; its opportunity lies in embedding itself in AI shopping and new distribution channels.

  Risks

  If merchants, PSPs, or large platforms dominate the agentic checkout process, PayPal could face weaker entry-point relevance or lower integration priority.

• Visa and Mastercard

  Card network and payments infrastructure participants

  Strengths

  The report says agentic commerce is relevant to investors focused on card networks, and potential transaction uplift plus tokenization handshakes could increase the importance of network roles.

  Weaknesses

  Regulation, interchange fee caps, and cross-border transaction trends remain key risks for the payments industry.

  Comparison

  Card networks are more affected by transaction volume, cross-border yields, and tokenization standards, whereas PSPs and SaaS platforms face merchants more directly.

  Risks

  Slower consumer spending, regulatory constraints, and shifts in cross-border e-commerce could weaken industry growth.

• Adyen, Global Payments, Fiserv and other PSPs and merchant acquirers

  Potential partners and value-added service providers

  Strengths

  PSPs can package agentic-commerce onboarding, catalog management, and payment-handshake capabilities as merchant value-added services, and Firmly is also exploring a grey-label model embedded in PSP portals.

  Weaknesses

  They need to handle protocol fragmentation, merchant system differences, and the complexity of real-time cross-channel control.

  Comparison

  PSPs are closer to payment processing and merchant relationships, while Firmly provides an infrastructure layer that abstracts different merchant back-end APIs and new channel access.

  Risks

  Adoption depends on ROI validation, platform rollout pace, and protocol standard stability.

Key data

• Report date2026-04-13UBS Global Research publication date.
• Firmly founding date2019Kumar N. Senthil founded Firmly after encountering operational and technical challenges in multi-platform commerce collaborations at Samsung.
• Number of PSP partnersapproximately 6 to 7Firmly says it is working with about 6 to 7 PSPs.
• Estimated industry transaction volume covered by partner PSPsapproximately 60% to 70%This percentage is based on Firmly's estimate.
• Example of a complex verticalFurnitureFirmly believes high-ticket, research-intensive categories are well suited to the agentic-commerce model.
• Example of traditional MoR fee6% to 7% of GMVFirmly says that when a third party assumes the MoR role in complex verticals such as furniture, the historical rate may have been in this range.
• Potential customer revenue bands>$1b；$500mm-$1b；$100mm-$500mm；$25mm-$100mmFirmly divides potential merchants into four categories by annual revenue: enterprise, large, mid-sized, and small merchants.

Impact & implications

If agentic commerce becomes mainstream, value in the payments chain could expand from pure payment processing to merchant catalog management, real-time checkout logic, cross-channel data abstraction, tokenization handshakes, and distribution through AI shopping channels. PSPs, SaaS platforms, and merchant acquirers may have an opportunity to package these capabilities as merchant-facing value-added services; at the same time, online checkout experiences and merchant platforms may face new integration requirements and channel competition. For companies such as Shopify and PayPal, the implications are neither purely positive nor purely negative; they will depend on whether these firms can secure advantageous positions in merchant control, platform distribution, payment-method support, and catalog services.

Risks

• A weaker macro environment, especially softer consumer spending, could weigh on payment transaction volumes.
• Interchange fee caps and changes in payment regulation could affect the revenue structure of issuers and card networks.
• Changes in cross-border travel and e-commerce trends could affect high-margin cross-border transactions.
• M&A integration and execution risk could affect the implementation of payments and fintech company strategies.
• FX transaction exposure and exchange-rate volatility could affect payments companies with international operations.
• Agentic-commerce protocols remain uncertain, making it hard for merchants to judge returns on investment.
• Major platforms are not yet fully live, which could delay transaction formation and commercial validation.
• If merchants worry about losing first-party data, MoR control, or checkout control, adoption could slow.

What to watch

• Further disclosures from Firmly with PSPs, merchant acquirers, and regional partners.
• Whether ACP, UCP, and other agentic-commerce protocols stabilize and are adopted by mainstream platforms.
• Whether ChatGPT and other LLM platforms reduce or eliminate the friction of users having to manually enable apps for transactions.
• Whether more major payment methods, such as Apple Pay, join Firmly's supported set.
• Whether initial transaction volume appears in the back half of 2026 and whether more meaningful scale emerges in 2027.
• Whether PSPs and SaaS platforms package catalog management, data synchronization, and tokenization handshakes as paid value-added services.
• Product launches, M&A, or partnership developments among related companies such as Shopify and PayPal in agentic commerce.