Visa Partners with OpenAI; Card Networks Officially Enter the Agent Payment Era

Overview

This research report analyzes the partnership between Visa and OpenAI and Mastercard's launch of agent payment machine services, concluding that card networks have officially entered the agent commerce era. The report notes that the agent economy will require large-scale trust infrastructure, positioning Visa and Mastercard favorably due to their existing networks, credential data, and merchant coverage. Emphasizing this is not a short-term opportunity but a five-year cycle, the report highlights enhanced potential for value-added service growth and maintains 'Outperform' ratings for major card networks.

Core views

Visa's partnership with OpenAI focuses on two areas: seamless agent commerce experiences and future agent economy use cases (such as developer-driven autonomous agent experiences). Visa has launched new services including Agent Score (assessing merchant website readiness for agent commerce), Agentic Directory (verifying merchant or agent identity), and Large Transaction Model (fraud detection), while enhancing token functionality to support agent-initiated transactions. Mastercard simultaneously launches Agent Pay for Machines (AP4M), a multi-track credential service supporting authorized machine payments, with partners including Adyen, Stripe, Coinbase, etc. The report argues these moves not only endorse agent card tokens but also demonstrate growing opportunities in value-added services (such as certified tokenization, risk, and fraud) as the agent economy expands. The report refutes the view that agent commerce threatens Visa/Mastercard; in reality, the agent world will demand more digitalization, transactions, and value-added services. Card networks possess over 7 billion credentials and over 100 million merchants, allowing them to easily adapt business models to autonomous agent transactions (including computing, tokens, image-based micro-transactions, etc.). Agent commerce shows the strongest product-market fit in the B2B sector.

Analysis framework

The report adopts an industry chain analysis framework, starting from the trust requirements of the agent commerce ecosystem to demonstrate the core value of card networks. It first analyzes new collaborations and service upgrades at Visa and Mastercard to explain how they build the trust infrastructure required for agent exchanges. Next, through historical analogies (such as traffic and vending machine micro-transactions), it demonstrates the ability of card networks to adapt business models to new scenarios. Finally, from a macro perspective, it points out that card networks are excellent inflation hedges (charged in basis points on gas spending), and primary regulatory risks (such as CCCA, MDL settlement) are gradually subsiding.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Transmission Chain

  Trust Infrastructure Requirements in Agent Commerce Ecosystems

  The report analyzes value transmission across the agent economy's upstream (AI models), midstream (payment networks), and downstream (merchants/users), noting that card networks as the midstream trust layer will benefit from growth in digital demands upstream and downstream.

• Competition and Strategy FrameworkMoat / competitive advantage

  Trust Infrastructure Barriers of Card Networks

  The report emphasizes that Visa/Mastercard's network of over 7 billion credentials and over 100 million merchants constitutes a trust moat, creating a competitive advantage in the scarce trust environment of the agent economy.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Visa Inc (V.US)

  Directly participates in building agent commerce infrastructure through cooperation with OpenAI, benefiting from growth in agent transactions and expansion of value-added services

  Strengths

  7 Billion+ credentials, 100 Million+ merchant network, enhanced token technology, new services (Agent Score, etc.)

  Comparison

  Alongside Mastercard, a core beneficiary of agent payments; Visa holds a first-mover advantage in the OpenAI collaboration

• Mastercard Inc (MA.US)

  Launched 'Agent Pay for Machines' service, participating in the agent economy through multi-track payment solutions

  Strengths

  AP4M multi-track service, extensive partner network (Adyen, Stripe, etc.), merchant coverage advantage

  Comparison

  Forms a duopoly structure with Visa; Mastercard has a clearer layout for machine payment scenarios

• Adyen NV (ADYEY)

  As a partner of Mastercard AP4M, indirectly benefits from the expansion of the agent payment ecosystem

  Strengths

  Payment processing technology capabilities, relationship with card networks

  Comparison

  Positioned mid-stream in the value chain compared to card networks; benefits from ecosystem expansion but with less direct exposure

Key data

• Visa Target Price$450Implies approx. 39% upside from current price of $322.96
• Mastercard Target Price$710Implies approx. 45% upside from current price of $489.08
• Visa 2026E EPS$13.17Corresponds to 2026 expected P/E of 24.5x
• Mastercard 2026E EPS$19.82Corresponds to 2026 expected P/E of 24.7x
• Card Network Credential Scale7 Billion+Key data point underpinning the trust infrastructure cited in the report
• Covered Merchants Count100 Million+Merchant coverage advantage for card networks in agent commerce

Impact & implications

The report suggests these developments help shift the narrative for payment networks from 'source of funds for AI transactions' to 'winners of AI'. As regulatory risks like CCCA diminish, alongside the resolution of MDL litigation and Illinois card fee lawsuits, the investment appeal of card networks improves. Agent commerce will drive increased demand for digital transactions and value-added services, with Visa and Mastercard well-positioned to continue benefiting thanks to their trust infrastructure and business model flexibility.