Server hardware market: Server growth accelerated in 2Q26 as ASPs surged, while Dell gained share across traditional and AI servers

Overview

This industry update examines 2Q26 server-market growth, vendor share and revised long-term forecasts. Goldman Sachs finds that pricing was the principal driver of the traditional-server acceleration, while AI-server growth was supported by both volumes and ASPs; Dell showed the broadest share gains among the discussed vendors.

Core views

Goldman Sachs updated its server-industry model using the latest 2Q26 data from 650 Group and IDC. Traditional-server growth accelerated sharply: 650 Group estimated 91% growth in 2Q26 versus 24% in 1Q26, as a 9% unit decline was more than offset by 111% ASP growth. IDC estimated non-accelerated server revenue rose 81% year over year, versus 36% in 1Q26, driven by 17% unit growth and 56% ASP growth. The report therefore characterizes traditional-server strength as principally price-led. AI-server growth was more balanced between volume and price. 650 Group estimated 94% growth in 2Q26, compared with 100% in 1Q26, from 20% unit growth and 62% ASP growth. IDC estimated accelerated-server revenue increased 43% year over year, versus 30% in 1Q26, with units up 10% and ASPs up 30%. In market share, Nvidia led AI-server revenue at 42%, followed by whitebox vendors at 24%, Dell at 17%, and Super Micro at 8%. Dell was the report's strongest share-gain example. 650 Group estimated Dell's traditional-server revenue rose $8.3 billion year over year to $11.3 billion, or 278%, supported by 9% unit growth and 248% ASP growth. Its traditional-server share rose to 29% from 15% in 2Q25, with neocloud share reaching 34% from 15% and enterprise share reaching 36% from 21%. Revenue mix shifted toward neoclouds: enterprise, neocloud and hyperscaler/service-provider exposure was approximately 49%, 45% and 5%, respectively, versus 58%, 28% and 13% a year earlier. Dell's AI-server revenue was estimated to rise $8.7 billion, or 146%, on 80% unit growth and 37% ASP growth; AI share increased to 17% from 13%, including gains in neoclouds to 51% from 47% and enterprise to 46% from 30%. HPE's traditional-server revenue rose 75% year over year, despite a 3% unit decline, because ASPs increased 82%. Its traditional share was broadly stable at 12% versus 13%, with enterprise share flat at 20% but neocloud share declining to 6% from 11%. In AI servers, HPE revenue fell 10% year over year, although it was approximately 13% higher sequentially; units fell 42% while ASPs increased 54%. The report notes AI-market-share losses, including enterprise AI share falling to 17% from 30%. SMCI showed contrasting trends across server categories. Its traditional-server revenue rose $2.9 billion, or 356%, with a 4% unit decline offset by a 375% ASP increase. Traditional-server share climbed to 10% from 4%, and SMCI held 22% of neocloud traditional-server share versus 2% a year earlier. Conversely, AI-server revenue rose 66%, driven by 59% unit growth and roughly 5%-9% ASP growth, but AI share declined to 8% from 9%; neocloud AI share fell to 25% from 29%. For the outlook, 650 Group raised its overall 2026-30 server forecasts by 7% on average, mainly on higher ASPs, and now expects the market to reach approximately $1.5 trillion by 2030, implying a 39% 2025-30 CAGR. AI-server forecasts were raised by approximately 4% on average to roughly $1.3 trillion in 2030, with a 46% five-year CAGR composed of 29% unit growth and 13% ASP growth. Traditional-server forecasts were raised by approximately 17% on average to approximately $192 billion by 2030, versus $164 billion previously, implying a 17% five-year CAGR from 6% unit growth and 10% ASP growth.

Analysis framework

The report combines 650 Group and IDC industry estimates to separate revenue growth into unit-volume and ASP effects, then compares vendor revenue and market shares across traditional and AI servers, as well as enterprise and neocloud end markets. It incorporates the resulting forecast revisions into the industry outlook and restates company ratings and EPS-multiple-based target-price frameworks.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisVolume-price decomposition

  Revenue growth is decomposed into unit shipment growth and ASP growth.

  Goldman Sachs uses the split to show that traditional-server growth was largely pricing-driven, whereas AI-server growth drew support from both units and ASPs.

• Valuation methodsP/E and PEG Valuation

  Forward EPS multiples are used to support the stated company target prices.

  The report cites 18.0x NTM+1Y EPS for Dell, 7.5x NTM+1 EPS for SMCI, and 14x NTM+1Y EPS for HPE.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL)

  Covered vendor benefiting from broad-based traditional and AI-server share gains.

  Strengths

  Traditional-server share reached 29% and AI-server share 17%; growth was broad across enterprise and neoclouds.

  Comparison

  Gained share in both categories while HPE was largely stable in traditional servers and SMCI lost AI share.

  Risks

  Weaker PC or enterprise IT demand, macro weakness, pricing and margin pressure, whitebox competition, and structurally lower neocloud AI-server demand.

• Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. (HPE)

  Covered vendor with stable traditional-server positioning but weaker AI-server share.

  Strengths

  Traditional-server revenue rose 75% year over year, supported by ASP gains.

  Weaknesses

  AI-server revenue declined 10% year over year and enterprise AI share fell to 17% from 30%.

  Comparison

  Traditional share was 12% versus Dell's 29% and SMCI's 10%; AI share was 1% in 650 Group data.

  Risks

  Lower IT spending or data-center capex, whitebox competition, customer churn during Juniper integration, higher component costs, and weaker enterprise or sovereign AI demand.

• Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI)

  Covered vendor with traditional-server share gains offset by AI-server share loss.

  Strengths

  Traditional-server share rose to 10% from 4%, including 22% neocloud traditional-server share.

  Weaknesses

  AI-server share declined to 8% from 9%, with neocloud AI share falling to 25% from 29%.

  Comparison

  Dell held materially higher AI and traditional-server shares, while SMCI's strongest progress was in traditional neocloud servers.

  Risks

  Stronger-than-expected AI-server demand, market-share gains, operating-margin improvement, and customer diversification.

Key data

• Traditional server market growth, 2Q26+91%650 Group estimate; versus +24% in 1Q26, with units -9% and ASPs +111%.
• AI server market growth, 2Q26+94%650 Group estimate; versus +100% in 1Q26, with units +20% and ASPs +62%.
• Dell traditional-server share29%2Q26, versus 15% in 2Q25.
• Dell AI-server share17%2Q26, versus 13% in 2Q25.
• Overall server market forecast~$1.5 trillion by 2030650 Group estimate, up from a prior $1.4 trillion forecast; 39% 2025-30 CAGR.
• AI server market forecast~$1.3 trillion by 2030Forecasts raised ~4% on average; 46% five-year CAGR.
• Traditional server market forecast~$192 billion by 2030Forecasts raised ~17% on average from $164 billion; 17% five-year CAGR.

Impact & implications

The report indicates that higher server pricing is lifting both near-term results and long-term market estimates, while competitive outcomes vary materially by vendor and end market. Dell's broad enterprise and neocloud share gains contrast with SMCI's AI-share slippage and HPE's weaker AI-server position.

Risks

• For Dell, the report identifies weaker consumer and commercial PC demand, weaker enterprise IT spending, macro weakness, pricing pressure, higher input costs, whitebox competition and lower neocloud AI-server demand as risks.
• For HPE, cited risks include lower hardware demand, whitebox competition, customer churn during Juniper integration, higher component costs and weaker enterprise or sovereign AI infrastructure demand.
• For SMCI, stronger AI-server demand, market-share gains, margin improvement and customer diversification are identified as risks to the Sell view.

What to watch

• Server ASP trends, which drove much of the traditional-server market acceleration and forecast upgrades.
• AI and traditional-server unit growth, especially in enterprise and neocloud end markets.
• Whether Dell sustains its share gains, SMCI recovers AI-server share, and HPE stabilizes its AI-server position.
• Further revisions to 650 Group's 2026-30 AI and traditional-server forecasts.