Server market 2030 revenue outlook raised to about $1.4tn, with AI servers still the core incremental driver

Overview

This report is an update from Goldman Sachs' Americas technology hardware team on 1Q26 server market share and outlook, based primarily on the latest data from 650 Group. The report raises its forecast for the overall server market size in 2030 to about $1.4tn and separately updates growth assumptions for AI servers and traditional servers across verticals such as neocloud, hyperscale, and enterprise. It also compares DELL, HPE, and SMCI in terms of revenue growth, unit shipments, ASP changes, and market share changes in traditional servers and AI servers.

Core views

At the industry level, 650 Group significantly raised its server market forecasts; AI servers remain the main long-term growth theme, while traditional servers also receive higher forecasts due to improved enterprise and hyperscale demand. At the company level, DELL performed the strongest, gaining share in both traditional and AI servers and benefiting from demand from neocloud and enterprise customers; HPE remained relatively steady in traditional servers, but its AI server share, especially on the enterprise side, declined; SMCI improved its traditional server share and delivered rapid AI server revenue growth, but its neocloud share weakened, and Goldman Sachs maintained a Sell rating.

Analysis framework

The report uses a combination of top-down market forecasting and bottom-up vendor share analysis: it first updates 2026-2030 assumptions for server revenue, unit shipments, and ASP based on 650 Group's 1Q26 market data, then breaks down growth drivers by AI/traditional servers and by dimensions such as neocloud/hyperscale/enterprise, and finally maps these to the market share, revenue growth, ratings, and target prices of DELL, HPE, and SMCI.

Methodology notes

• Industry Forecasting650 Group服务器市场模型

  Breaks down revenue, unit shipments, ASP, and vertical market growth by AI servers and traditional servers.

  650 Group raised its forecast for the overall server market size in 2030 to about $1.4tn and also raised its 2026-2030 forecasts for AI servers and traditional servers, supporting Goldman Sachs' industry model update.

• Equity AnalysisGS Factor Profile

  Compares stocks' attributes versus the market and peers across Growth, Financial Returns, Multiple, and Integrated dimensions.

  This framework uses Goldman Sachs analysts' forecasts to standardize and rank metrics such as sales growth, EBITDA, EPS, ROE, ROCE, and valuation multiples, providing context for equity investment.

• M&A AssessmentM&A Rank

  Assigns a rating from 1 to 3 for the probability that a covered company becomes an acquisition target.

  Goldman Sachs uses qualitative and quantitative factors to assess the likelihood of a company being acquired, where 1 represents high probability, 2 medium probability, and 3 low probability; some ratings may be incorporated into target prices.

• Data PlatformQuantum

  Goldman Sachs' proprietary financial database.

  Quantum provides historical financial statements, forecasts, and ratio data for deep single-company analysis or cross-industry and cross-market comparisons.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL)

  A primary beneficiary of rising server market share

  Strengths

  Gained share in both traditional servers and AI servers; balanced growth from neocloud and enterprise customers; strong YoY growth in AI server revenue.

  Weaknesses

  Still exposed to PC demand, enterprise IT spending, and server competition.

  Comparison

  Compared with HPE and SMCI, DELL's share gains are broader across both traditional servers and AI servers.

  Risks

  PC and enterprise IT demand weaker than expected, pricing pressure, rising input costs, competition from white-box vendors, and structural weakening in neocloud AI server demand.

• Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. (HPE)

  A vendor with stable traditional servers but pressure on AI server share

  Strengths

  Traditional server revenue grew 20%, with market share maintained at 11%; enterprise traditional server share remained stable.

  Weaknesses

  AI server unit shipments declined, and enterprise AI server share fell from 30% to 17%.

  Comparison

  Compared with DELL, HPE is weaker in expanding AI server share; compared with SMCI, HPE's traditional server base is more stable.

  Risks

  Enterprise IT spending and data center capex below expectations, white-box competition, customer attrition during Juniper integration, rising component costs, and weaker-than-expected enterprise and sovereign AI data center demand.

• Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI)

  A high-growth AI server supplier under rating pressure

  Strengths

  AI server revenue grew about 173% YoY, traditional server revenue grew 58% YoY, and service provider and enterprise AI share improved.

  Weaknesses

  neocloud AI server share declined; traditional server unit shipments fell; Goldman Sachs maintained a Sell rating.

  Comparison

  Revenue growth is strong, but share performance in the key neocloud AI market is weaker than DELL's.

  Risks

  AI server demand below expectations, inability to sustain market share gains, customer concentration and insufficient diversification, and weaker-than-expected improvement in core operating margins.

Key data

• Overall server market size in 2030约$1.4tr650 Group's new forecast implies a roughly 38% CAGR in 2025-2030, above the previous forecast of about $1.1tn.
• AI server size in 2030约$1.24tr2026-2030 forecasts were raised by an average of about 18%; unit shipments were raised by about 3% and ASP by about 15%.
• Traditional server size in 2030约$164bn2026-2030 forecasts were raised by an average of about 31%; unit shipments were raised by about 19% and ASP by about 10%.
• DELL 1Q26 traditional server revenue growth+85% YoYUnits grew about 24% and ASP grew about 49%; traditional server revenue share rose from 20% to 30%.
• DELL 1Q26 AI server revenue growth+约$11.3bn YoY / +622% YoYUnits grew about 300% and ASP grew about 81%; AI server revenue share rose from 5% to 17%.
• HPE 1Q26 traditional server revenue growth+20% YoYUnits were roughly flat and ASP grew about 20%; traditional server revenue share remained at 11%.
• HPE 1Q26 AI server revenue growth+11% YoYUnits declined about 6% and ASP grew about 18%; enterprise AI server share fell from 30% to 17%.
• SMCI 1Q26 traditional server revenue growth+58% YoYUnits declined about 23% and ASP grew about 104%; neocloud traditional server share was about 10%, above 1Q25's 2%.
• SMCI 1Q26 AI server revenue growth+约$5.3bn YoY / +173% YoYUnits grew about 164% and ASP grew about 4%; total AI server revenue share rose from 8% to 11%, but neocloud share fell from 37% to 33%.
• Ratings and target pricesDELL Buy $500；HPE Buy $79；SMCI Sell $30All are 12-month target prices, and the report says target prices are unchanged.

Impact & implications

Server capex and AI infrastructure demand remain in an upward revision cycle, with industry revenue growth driven not only by shipment volume but also by AI configuration and premiumization-led ASP increases. For investors, vendors with sustained share expansion and broad customer coverage are better positioned; DELL's share gains across both enterprise and neocloud strengthen its relative appeal, HPE needs to demonstrate that its AI server share can recover, and SMCI must address uncertainty from neocloud demand mix and intensifying competition.

Risks

• AI server demand or neocloud capex may come in below expectations.
• Enterprise IT spending and data center capex may be weaker than expected.
• Intensifying competition from white-box server vendors may compress branded vendors' share and margins.
• If the assumption of rising server ASPs does not materialize, 2030 revenue forecasts may be revised down.
• Rising component costs may weigh on gross margins.
• Customer concentration, customer losses, or integration risks may affect vendor share.
• Weak PC and macro demand may affect the overall profitability of hardware companies such as DELL.

What to watch

• Whether 650 Group's quarterly forecasts for server shipments, ASP, and revenue continue to be revised upward.
• Order sustainability for AI servers across neocloud, hyperscale, and enterprise customer categories.
• Whether DELL can sustain share gains in both AI and traditional servers.
• Whether HPE can regain share in the enterprise AI server market.
• Changes in SMCI's share in the neocloud AI server market.
• Whether AI server ASP growth can offset unit volatility and cost pressure.
• Enterprise IT budgets, data center capex, and demand for sovereign AI infrastructure.