US digital assets industry: Bernstein sees the CLARITY Act failure shifting crypto regulation toward fast agency-led rules, not ending product-driven catalysts

Overview

Bernstein assesses the implications of the CLARITY Act's procedural failure for the US digital-assets industry. It sees the legislative setback redirecting regulatory progress toward SEC and CFTC implementation and innovation exemptions, while leaving near- to medium-term product and earnings catalysts intact for selected covered companies.

Core views

The CLARITY Act failed to advance in a procedural cloture vote after negotiations broke down over an ethics provision. Bernstein does not expect investors to rely on a re-vote given the limited legislative window. Although the Act would have provided more durable protection against political-regime changes, the report expects regulatory clarity to be pursued through specific SEC and CFTC rule-making and innovation exemptions. Bernstein expects this work to be aggressive and swift to recover time lost during negotiations. The anticipated regulatory agenda includes token taxonomy for capital raising through native crypto tokens and exemptions from securities classification; continued developer protections for decentralized-finance protocols and self-custody infrastructure; innovation exemptions for equity tokenization and updated transfer-agent rules that could enable 24/5/7 onshore US trading; faster approval of real-world-asset perpetual futures, including SEC/CFTC coordination on single-stock perpetual futures; and potential amendments to federal sports-event-contract rules and their classification as swaps. The report specifically flags issuer-consent rules for equity tokenization as an item to follow. Bernstein continues to see strong near- to medium-term earnings catalysts from the product pipelines of its covered companies, rather than from broad crypto-market strength alone. It expects near-term momentum to strengthen if exemptions lead to swift launches in tokenization, perpetual futures, stablecoins and prediction markets. The longer-term objective is for mainstream products such as tokenization to reach sufficient scale that regulatory reversal becomes harder, although the report identifies the 2028 US election and a possible regulatory unwind as a tail risk. For stablecoins, the report argues that the failure of CLARITY is not harmful because they are governed by the GENIUS Act. The CLARITY compromise text would have barred yield on idle stablecoin balances and tied rewards to activity tiers; without it, distribution partners such as Coinbase may continue offering yield on idle balances. Bernstein therefore expects stablecoins to retain demand as savings-deposit proxies offering full Treasury yield. This supports USDC adoption, though the report notes emerging yield-based competition from new stablecoin entrants. Circle is viewed as well positioned as a GENIUS-compliant market leader for broader financial-services and payments adoption. Among company-specific catalysts, Bernstein highlights Robinhood's record prediction-market volumes and its Robinhood Chain launch. The offshore chain offers stock tokens and was generating roughly $1 million per day of gross revenue despite falling gas-congestion fees. The report sees Q3 and Q4 catalysts from the sports calendar and mid-term elections. Circle's resilient USDC supply and scheduled ARC Chain launch are identified as near-term drivers, particularly if the launch increases USDC liquidity demand for trading, equity tokenization and DeFi yield vaults. Figure is described as a credit-tokenization leader with traction in home mortgages and near-zero crypto exposure; its Kiavi acquisition could broaden the business from HELOCs into residential transition loans and first liens, even though investors often trade it as part of the crypto basket. Bernstein is Outperform on CRCL, COIN, FIGR, HOOD, MSTR and SBET, while rating BLSH Market-Perform. Its preferred names following the policy setback are HOOD, CRCL and FIGR, reflecting their exposure to continuing adoption in real-world products and their specific earnings catalysts.

Analysis framework

Bernstein begins with the legislative event and its likely regulatory substitute, then maps expected agency actions to digital-asset product categories. It separates stablecoin regulation under the GENIUS Act from the CLARITY outcome and assesses individual covered companies through identifiable product, volume, liquidity and business-expansion catalysts. The report also presents rating, target-price, earnings-estimate and valuation-reference data for covered stocks.

Methodology notes

• Event-Driven and Behavioral FinanceEvent-driven analysis

  Event-driven analysis of the CLARITY Act's failed procedural vote and subsequent agency rule-making.

  The report evaluates how a legislative setback changes the expected regulatory path and the timing of product catalysts for the digital-assets sector.

• Industry AnalysisUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Transmission

  Regulatory changes are linked to token issuance, trading, stablecoins, tokenization, DeFi and prediction-market activity.

  Bernstein traces how agency rules and exemptions could enable new products and, in turn, affect adoption and earnings opportunities for covered platforms and issuers.

• Valuation methodsEV/EBITDA valuation

  EV/EBITDA valuation for Figure.

  The ticker table identifies EV/EBITDA as Figure's valuation basis.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Robinhood (HOOD)

  Covered company; identified as a preferred name with earnings catalysts linked to prediction markets and stock-token activity.

  Strengths

  Record prediction-market volumes, Robinhood Chain launch, and roughly $1mn/day of gross chain revenue.

  Risks

  Exposure to the broader crypto basket and the pace of regulatory/product rollout.

• Circle (CRCL)

  Covered company; identified as a preferred name and regulated US stablecoin leader.

  Strengths

  Resilient USDC supply, GENIUS Act governance, and potential ARC Chain catalyst.

  Weaknesses

  New yield-based stablecoin competition.

  Comparison

  Positioned as a GENIUS-compliant market leader for financial-services and payments adoption.

  Risks

  Competition from new stablecoin entrants and the execution of the ARC Chain launch.

• Figure (FIGR)

  Covered company; identified as a preferred name and credit-tokenization market leader.

  Strengths

  Strong home-mortgage traction, near-zero crypto exposure, and potential diversification through Kiavi.

  Weaknesses

  Investors tend to trade the shares as part of the crypto basket despite limited direct crypto exposure.

  Risks

  Execution of expansion beyond HELOCs into residential transition loans and first liens.

• Coinbase (COIN)

  Covered company; listed as Outperform.

  Strengths

  Can continue offering yield on idle stablecoin balances as a distribution partner.

• Strategy (MSTR)

  Covered company; listed as Outperform.

• Sharplink (SBET)

  Covered company; listed as Outperform.

• Bullish (BLSH)

  Covered company; listed as Market-Perform.

  Comparison

  Rated Market-Perform versus Outperform ratings for CRCL, COIN, FIGR, HOOD, MSTR and SBET.

Key data

• Robinhood Chain gross revenue~$1mn/dayCurrent gross chain revenue despite declining gas-congestion fees.
• Circle target priceUSD 140.00Ticker-table target price; current price was USD 86.30 on 15 Sep 2026.
• Coinbase target priceUSD 330.00Ticker-table target price; current price was USD 172.11 on 15 Sep 2026.
• Robinhood target priceUSD 160.00Ticker-table target price; current price was USD 110.45 on 15 Sep 2026.
• Figure target priceUSD 70.00Ticker-table target price; current price was USD 33.28 on 15 Sep 2026.
• 2028 US election2028Identified as a tail-risk period for a potential regulatory unwind.

Impact & implications

The report views the legislative failure as a change in the route to regulatory clarity rather than a break in the sector's product-adoption trajectory. It expects agency action to support launches in tokenization, stablecoins, perpetual futures and prediction markets, favoring companies with direct and near-term exposure to those activities. Stablecoin demand could remain supported by the ability to offer yield on idle balances, but competition from new yield-oriented entrants may increase.

Risks

• The 2028 US election could bring a regulatory unwind if the political environment changes.
• New stablecoin entrants could create yield-based competition for USDC.
• Specific regulatory exemptions and product launches may not arrive as swiftly as Bernstein expects.

What to watch

• Specific SEC and CFTC rules on token taxonomy, DeFi and self-custody protections, equity-tokenization exemptions, and transfer-agent rules.
• Rules on issuer consent for tokenizing equity.
• SEC/CFTC coordination and approvals for real-world-asset and single-stock perpetual futures.
• Potential changes to the classification of federal sports event contracts as swaps.
• Circle's ARC Chain launch and whether it increases demand for USDC liquidity.
• Robinhood's prediction-market volumes, sports-calendar activity and mid-term-election catalysts.
• Figure's integration of Kiavi and expansion beyond HELOCs.