Intense Competition in Equity Tokenization, Regulatory Easing Benefits Top Platforms

Overview

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the latest developments in equity and Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization within the global digital asset sector. The report notes that although the industry awaits a clearer regulatory framework for security tokenization, the market size has exceeded $51 billion, demonstrating strong resilience. With the SEC recently proposing the abolition of certain trading restriction rules and approving exchange pilots, the industry is receiving positive signals. The report focuses on outlining two mainstream business models, and conducts valuation analysis and rating maintenance on key participants such as Figure, Bullish, Coinbase, Robinhood, and Sharplink Gaming.

Core views

Industry Scale and Structure: Total market cap of tokenized RWA has crossed the $51 billion threshold, up 40% YTD, demonstrating extreme resilience against a backdrop of approximately 20% decline in the overall crypto market. Among them, private credit remains the dominant asset class, accounting for about 47%, followed by US Treasuries (approx. 30%) and Commodities (approx. 9%). Ethereum and Provenance blockchains host over 70% of on-chain RWA activity, with holder count exceeding 900k, a YoY increase of approx. 60%. Equity Tokenization Explosion and Regulatory Breakthrough: Equity tokenization is attracting mainstream attention, growing from $700 million at the start of the year to $1.6 billion (+130%). Currently, products mainly leverage existing regulatory frameworks, with restrictions for US investors. However, the regulatory environment is improving: SEC proposes abolishing Rules 611 and 610(e), allowing tokenized stocks to trade more freely in decentralized venues; previously, the SEC issued a 'No Action' letter to DTC and approved NYSE and Nasdaq to pilot tokenized securities trading. The market generally anticipates future 'Innovation Exemptions' that could allow trading of tokenized US stocks domestically in the US. Business Model Differentiation: The industry is evolving into two main models. One is the 'Neutral Infrastructure' model, such as Figure, Bullish, and Securitize, which provide compliant tokenized settlement and exchange infrastructure for traditional market participants, where shareholders enjoy full ownership rights. The second is the 'Multi-Asset Single Exchange' model, represented by Coinbase, providing exposure to multiple asset classes through tokenization, for example offering tokenized stocks backed 1:1 by underlying stocks to non-US investors, and possessing features like automatic dividend distribution. Individual Stock Views and Valuation: Figure (FIGR) is viewed as the pure tokenization platform leader, with profitable core lending business, Bernstein assigns it a 2027 EV/EBITDA 25x valuation, target price $67, rated Outperform. Coinbase (COIN) reinforces its 'All-in-One Exchange' status by launching tokenized stocks and perpetual contracts, assigned a 2027 P/E valuation of 25x, target price $330, rated Outperform. Robinhood (HOOD) is rapidly expanding cyclical businesses, assigned a 2027 P/E valuation of 35x, target price $130, rated Outperform.

Analysis framework

The report adopts a top-down industry analysis framework, first confirming industry sentiment and resilience through macro data (market size, asset distribution, on-chain activity). Subsequently, it deeply decodes industry chain business models, distinguishing between 'Infrastructure Layer' and 'Trading Application Layer', and evaluating the compliance capabilities and product innovation speed of each participant under the regulatory framework. Finally, combined with each company's business stage, growth prospects, and risk characteristics, appropriate valuation multiples (such as EV/EBITDA or P/E) are selected for absolute and relative valuation to derive investment ratings.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkSupply-demand framework

  Matching analysis of supply side (compliant infrastructure, asset issuance) and demand side (investor access, liquidity) in RWA tokenization market

  The report judges the market supply-demand equilibrium point and growth drivers by analyzing the tokenization scale of different asset categories (such as private credit, treasuries) and holder growth, helping to understand which assets are easier to accept via tokenization.

• Valuation MethodologyEV/EBITDA valuation

  For early-stage or high-growth companies such as Figure and Bullish, valuing using Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio

  For fintech companies that have not yet fully released profits or are in a high-investment phase, EV/EBITDA better eliminates the impact of capital structure and depreciation policies, reflecting their core operating cash flow generation capabilities.

• Valuation MethodologyPE/PEG valuation

  For mature or more cyclical trading platforms such as Coinbase and Robinhood, using Price-to-Earnings ratio for valuation

  For companies with clear profit models and performance fluctuating with market transaction volumes, P/E is a common metric to measure their relative value; the report combines expected 2027 earnings to give reasonable multiples.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR.US)

  Beneficiary: Pure tokenization platform leader, possessing compliant infrastructure and profitable core lending business

  Strengths

  Clear structural growth prospects, leading in private credit tokenization

  Weaknesses

  Business heavily impacted by macro interest rates and private credit growth rate

  Comparison

  Enjoys valuation premium compared to traditional exchanges

  Risks

  Interest rate cuts leading to intensified refinancing competition; slowdown in private credit growth

• Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN.US)

  Beneficiary: Reinforcing 'All-in-One Exchange' positioning through tokenized stocks and perpetual contracts

  Strengths

  Rich product line, covering non-US investors and institutional clients, obvious compliance advantages

  Weaknesses

  Facing competitive pressure from international exchanges and brokerages

  Comparison

  Valuation is in line with similar crypto/fintech peers

  Risks

  Changes in regulatory framework; fee pressure due to market competition

• Robinhood Markets Inc (HOOD.US)

  Beneficiary: Rapidly expanding retail trading platform, involved in tokenization sector

  Strengths

  Large user base, high brand recognition

  Weaknesses

  Business is highly cyclical, significantly affected by market trading volume fluctuations

  Comparison

  Higher valuation multiples reflect growth expectations

  Risks

  PFOF model regulatory risk; pressure from cryptocurrency trading regulations

• Bullish (BLSH.US)

  Beneficiary: Building unified ledger, providing token design and liquidity services

  Strengths

  Acquisition of Equiniti enhances infrastructure capabilities, large subscription service revenue growth potential

  Weaknesses

  Business is in early stages, uncertainty in obtaining US licenses

  Comparison

  Valuation enjoys premium reflecting wide-ranging growth opportunities

  Risks

  Delay in US spot and derivative launches; entry of new competitors

• Sharplink Gaming (SBET.US)

  Beneficiary: Ethereum treasury management strategy, generating returns through staking

  Strengths

  Long-term ETH holding and staking strategy

  Weaknesses

  High balance sheet and liquidity risk

  Comparison

  Valuation based on ETH treasury model, implying long-term premium

  Risks

  ETH price volatility causing debt servicing pressure; DeFi smart contract risks

Key data

• Total Market Cap of Tokenized RWA$51 BillionUp 40% YTD, significantly outperforming the overall crypto market
• Scale of Equity Tokenization$1.6 BillionUp 130% YTD, starting from $700 million
• Private Credit Proportion47%Largest asset category in RWA market
• Number of RWA Holders900k+Up approx. 60% YTD
• Figure (FIGR) Target Price$67Based on 2027 EV/EBITDA 25x valuation
• Coinbase (COIN) Target Price$330Based on 2027 P/E 25x valuation

Impact & implications

The report believes that with regulatory obstacles gradually clearing, equity tokenization will move from the edge to the mainstream, bringing higher liquidity and settlement efficiency to traditional financial assets. For platforms such as Coinbase and Robinhood, this means new revenue sources and user growth points; for infrastructure providers like Figure, it means their first-mover advantage in the compliant tokenization field will translate into market share. Investors should focus on platforms that can balance compliance and innovation while providing high-quality user experiences.

Risks

• Regulatory Risk: The US digital asset regulatory framework is not fully established yet, political changes may bring regulatory volatility.
• Competitive Risk: Competition from international exchanges (e.g., Binance) and traditional brokerages (e.g., Charles Schwab) may lead to pricing and market share pressure.
• Macro Risk: Digital assets belong to emerging asset classes, with short price history, showing high Beta volatility to macroeconomic changes (such as recession).
• Business Risk: Figure relies on private credit growth; if the sector slows down it will affect its tokenized credit uptake.
• Technical/Liquidity Risk: Companies like SBET involve ETH staking and DeFi strategies, facing risks such as long unlock queues and smart contract vulnerabilities.

What to watch

• SEC's further clarification on securities tokenization regulatory rules, especially the implementation status of the 'Innovation Exemption' policy.
• Progress of Bullish obtaining NY DFS license in the US and launching US spot/derivative trading.
• Figure's expansion in non-HELOC loan categories and sustainability of private credit market growth.
• User adoption and trading volume changes for Coinbase and Robinhood in tokenized products.