Global EV battery makers' market-share competition Report Interpretation

Overview

Bernstein's annual Electric Revolution review assesses which global EV-battery suppliers are gaining share and whether their customers, regional exposure and EV-model portfolios can sustain future growth. It identifies CATL as the strongest overall competitor and preferred covered supplier.

Core views

Bernstein frames battery competition as more than a technology-and-cost contest: suppliers must participate in successful OEM programmes and fast-growing vehicle platforms while limiting dependence on individual customers and regions. Global passenger-vehicle battery demand reached about 1,029 GWh in 2025, up from 666 GWh in 2023, and Bernstein forecasts 2,365 GWh by 2030, an 18% CAGR. At an assumed pack value of US$100/kWh, this would represent an annual addressable market above US$220bn. The report argues that share execution, customer and regional exposure, capacity utilisation and profitability will determine relative battery-maker outcomes. CATL is Bernstein's clear leader. Its global share was 38.4% in 2Q26, up 3.0 percentage points from 2Q24 and 2.9 points year-on-year, making it the only one of the six largest suppliers to pair share above 30% with clearly positive 12-month momentum. Its two-year sales CAGR was 30%, including 48% growth in Europe and 77% in Rest of World, and it gained 7.9 points of European share despite losing 5.3 points in the US. CATL led China, Europe and RoW, with 2025 shares of 40%, 44% and 27%, respectively. Bernstein expects sales to rise from 370 GWh in 2025 to 943 GWh in 2030, a 21% CAGR, and share to increase from 36% to about 40%. Customer diversification is a central support for that view. CATL's largest named customer, Tesla, represented only about 10% of 2025 sales; its top three and top five customers accounted for 24% and 36%, and 64% of sales came from customers outside its five largest. CATL supplied around 60% of Volkswagen's battery demand, 57% of Geely's, 54% of BMW's, 84% of Changan's and 70% of Xiaomi's, while also supplying about 30% of Tesla demand. Bernstein contrasts this with BYD's approximately 67% reliance on its own vehicle operations, Panasonic's 91% dependence on Tesla, LGES's 53% top-three concentration, Samsung SDI's 73% and SK On's 63%. CATL also has the broadest exposure to high-volume and fast-growing EV models. In China it supplied 72% of battery demand in the highest-volume sales decile and 59% in the second. It was broadly represented across fast-growing third-party platforms, including Changan, Geely, Xiaomi, AITO, Leapmotor and Huawei models. Outside China, CATL accounted for about 35% of battery demand in the selected model universe versus LGES's 18%, and held 29% of supply in the fastest-growing model decile, rising to 38% and 40% in the next two deciles. Incremental ex-China demand shifted from mature Tesla platforms toward new European launches; CATL participated in the Skoda Elroq and other growth models including Audi Q6 e-tron, Volkswagen ID.7 and Audi A6 e-tron. BYD remains the second-largest supplier but Bernstein views its growth as more concentrated in China and its own vehicle portfolio. It held 16.2% global share in 2Q26 after losing 7.8 points in China over two years, although it gained 5.6 points in Europe and 7.2 points in RoW. Its 2025 sales were about 199 GWh and are forecast to reach 413 GWh in 2030, a 16% CAGR, with share around 17%. LGES has a more balanced regional sales mix but has lost share, notably 13.2 points in Europe and 4.8 points in the US over the two years to 2Q26. Bernstein nevertheless forecasts LGES sales growth of about 20% annually from 2025 to 2030 and a gradual share recovery from 10% to 11%, contingent on utilisation improvement and new-platform wins. Panasonic's US recovery is tied to Tesla, while Samsung SDI and SK On have lost share across major ex-China markets. Capacity utilisation differentiates the outlook further. Bernstein expects LGES's roughly 20% forecast sales growth to exceed about 7% capacity growth, offering the strongest utilisation upside. BYD's sales growth also outpaces capacity expansion. CATL's sales and capacity growth are broadly aligned, but utilisation has been above 95% since 2025, so its current expansion plan could constrain additional share gains. Samsung SDI, SK On and lower-tier suppliers have sales-growth forecasts below announced capacity growth, implying potential pressure on utilisation and profitability if all planned capacity comes on line. For covered equities, Bernstein prefers CATL and rates both CATL(A) and CATL(H) Outperform, citing leadership, diversified customers, winning-platform exposure and growth visibility. CATL A-shares traded at 13.9x 2027E P/E in the report's comparison, versus 36.1x for LGES and 27.7x for Samsung SDI. Bernstein rates LGES and Samsung SDI Market-Perform because their earnings depend more heavily on utilisation recovery, customer demand and execution.

Analysis framework

Bernstein combines historical and recent regional market-share data with battery sales by supplier, OEM and EV model. It assesses competitive position through customer concentration, regional diversification, model exposure and momentum, then forecasts supplier sales and shares from historical growth and recent demand momentum. It compares forecast sales growth with announced capacity growth to infer utilisation pressure or upside, and uses valuation models for covered companies.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisSupply-demand framework

  Forecasting passenger-vehicle battery demand and supplier market shares

  The report projects total battery demand by region and allocates it across suppliers using historical growth and recent momentum.

• Industry AnalysisUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Transmission

  OEM and EV-model exposure as a driver of battery-supplier demand

  Bernstein links battery makers' sales prospects to their OEM customers and the volume and growth of the vehicle models those OEMs sell.

• Valuation methodsDCF (Discounted Cash Flow)

  DCF valuation for CATL, LGES and Samsung SDI

  The report discounts annual free-cash-flow forecasts through 2050 plus a terminal value; CATL(A) uses a 9.6% WACC and 3% terminal growth rate, while CATL(H) uses 10.4% and 3%.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• CATL(A) (300750.CH)

  Preferred covered battery supplier; Bernstein expects continued share leadership.

  Strengths

  Diversified customers, regional scale, positive share momentum and broad exposure to winning EV platforms.

  Weaknesses

  Utilisation above 95% may constrain further share gains under the current expansion plan.

  Comparison

  13.9x 2027E P/E versus 36.1x for LGES and 27.7x for Samsung SDI.

  Risks

  China battery-manufacturing overcapacity, geopolitical restrictions on market share and competition from vertically integrated OEMs.

• CATL(H) (3750.HK)

  Preferred covered battery supplier; Bernstein rates it Outperform.

  Strengths

  Same market-leadership, customer-diversification and platform-exposure rationale as CATL(A).

  Risks

  China battery-manufacturing overcapacity, geopolitical restrictions on market share and competition from vertically integrated OEMs.

• LG Energy Solution (373220.KS)

  Covered supplier rated Market-Perform.

  Strengths

  Balanced regional sales mix and potential utilisation improvement as forecast sales growth exceeds capacity growth.

  Weaknesses

  Global share losses, including in Europe and the US; earnings depend on utilisation recovery, customer demand and new-platform wins.

  Comparison

  Forecast to grow sales at about 20% CAGR through 2030, versus CATL's 21%; 2027E P/E of 36.1x versus CATL(A)'s 13.9x.

  Risks

  Lower US IRA tax benefits, redistribution of tax credits with customers or partners, and battery-manufacturing cost inflation.

• Samsung SDI (006400.KS)

  Covered supplier rated Market-Perform.

  Strengths

  Strong position with BMW and selected EV-model exposure.

  Weaknesses

  Lost share across major ex-China markets; forecast sales growth trails announced capacity growth, implying utilisation risk.

  Comparison

  Forecast 8% sales CAGR from 2025 to 2030, below CATL and LGES; 2027E P/E of 27.7x.

  Risks

  Lower EV or ESS adoption, OEM sourcing changes, insufficient cost declines and reduced US IRA subsidies.

Key data

• Global passenger-vehicle battery demand1,029 GWh in 2025 to 2,365 GWh in 203018% CAGR; 2025 demand was 666 GWh in 2023.
• CATL global market share38.4% in 2Q26Up 3.0 percentage points from 2Q24; forecast to reach about 40% in 2030 from 36% in 2025.
• CATL sales forecast370 GWh in 2025 to 943 GWh in 203021% CAGR.
• CATL customer concentration24% top three customers; 36% top fiveTesla was the largest named customer at about 10% of 2025 sales.
• LGES sales forecast106 GWh in 2025 to 260 GWh in 203020% CAGR; share forecast to recover from 10% to 11%.
• Global battery sales growth25% two-year CAGR from 2Q24 to 2Q26Europe grew 34%, RoW 77%, while US sales declined 5%.

Impact & implications

The report argues that CATL's scale is reinforced by a diversified OEM base, broad regional presence and participation in fast-growing EV platforms, supporting continued share gains. It sees more conditional outcomes for LGES, Samsung SDI and SK On, where utilisation, customer demand and execution are more important; supplier concentration also increases exposure to OEM sourcing changes.

Risks

• For CATL, Bernstein identifies Chinese battery-manufacturing overcapacity, geopolitical restrictions on market share and increased competition from vertically integrated OEMs.
• For LGES, explicitly cited downside risks are lower US IRA benefits, tax-credit redistribution and battery-manufacturing cost inflation.
• For Samsung SDI, risks include weaker EV or ESS adoption, OEM switching, inadequate cost declines and reduced US IRA subsidies.
• Bernstein notes that capacity expansion exceeding sales growth could pressure utilisation and profitability for Samsung SDI, SK On and lower-tier suppliers.

What to watch

• CATL's ability to maintain share gains in Europe and RoW while managing capacity constraints.
• The uptake of new European EV platforms and CATL's participation in their battery supply.
• LGES utilisation recovery, customer demand and new-platform wins.
• OEM sourcing allocation changes, especially Tesla's impact on Panasonic and LGES.
• Whether announced battery capacity comes online ahead of supplier sales growth.