Global EV Demand Recovers, Led by Europe and Other Regions, While the U.S. Market Shows Signs of Bottoming

Overview

This report tracks global monthly passenger-vehicle xEV (BEV+PHEV) sales, regional performance, OEM market shares, battery chemistries, and power-battery demand, while extending coverage to investment implications for autos and auto parts in China, Europe, India, and Japan. The report finds that, after a weak start to the year, the global EV market resumed growth from March through June, with battery demand outperforming vehicle sales.

Core views

Global EV growth is recovering but regional divergence is pronounced: Europe and other regions are the main growth engines; China is weighed down by lower subsidies and weak macro conditions; and the United States remains down year over year after the removal of tax credits but has improved sequentially for several consecutive months. BEV growth is stronger than PHEV growth, while larger battery capacity and a rising BEV mix enable power-battery demand to continue outperforming vehicle demand.

Analysis framework

Based on monthly registration and sales data from multiple sources, the analysis is broken down by country, OEM, and battery chemistry; the database is updated monthly with a one-month lag. China data reflect retail registrations and exclude overseas exports.

Methodology notes

• Data TrackingGlobal Monthly xEV Sales Tracking

  Aggregates passenger-vehicle xEV sales by BEV and PHEV, and compares year-over-year growth, sequential growth, and market shares by region and OEM.

  Used to identify global and regional demand inflection points, changes in vehicle mix, and the competitive landscape among manufacturers.

• Supply-Demand AnalysisPower-Battery Demand and Installation Analysis

  Tracks passenger-vehicle lithium-battery demand, supplier shares, and battery chemistries in GWh.

  Observes changes in battery capacity per vehicle, BEV mix, and battery supplier market shares through the relationship between battery demand and vehicle sales.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• CATL

  Leading Power-Battery Supplier

  Strengths

  Leading market share, strong installation growth, and advantages in margins and return on capital.

  Weaknesses

  Intensifying industry competition and high market expectations for growth.

  Comparison

  Year-to-date share of approximately 39%, materially ahead of BYD and LGES.

  Risks

  Global EV demand below expectations, price competition, and raw-material price volatility.

• BYD

  Chinese EV and Battery Manufacturer

  Strengths

  Industry-leading scale, leading xEV sales, and integrated vehicle-and-battery capabilities.

  Weaknesses

  June sales declined year over year, affected by Chinese demand and subsidy changes.

  Comparison

  June xEV sales were approximately 283,000 units, down 25% year over year; battery installation share was 15.5%.

  Risks

  Domestic competition, subsidy and purchase-tax adjustments, exports, and overseas trade policies.

• European Automakers

  Beneficiaries of European BEV Growth

  Strengths

  Strong growth in European BEV demand, with new product launches from BMW, Mercedes, and others.

  Weaknesses

  Price promotions and emissions-regulation requirements may compress profitability.

  Comparison

  European xEV sales rose 34% year over year in June, with BEV sales growing faster.

  Risks

  Consumer-demand volatility, regulatory-policy changes, and competition from Chinese brands.

• Korean Battery Makers

  Power-Battery and Energy-Storage Transition Names

  Strengths

  Overseas manufacturing capacity and customer relationships, with energy-storage and data-center demand providing transition opportunities.

  Weaknesses

  U.S. EV demand below expectations has resulted in low capacity utilization and operating pressure.

  Comparison

  LGES June installations rose 15% year over year, while Samsung SDI declined by approximately 25% to 28%.

  Risks

  Weak U.S. demand, overcapacity, and delayed earnings recovery.

• Japanese Automakers

  Beneficiaries of Hybrid and Multi-Path Electrification

  Strengths

  HEV market positioning can support near-term revenue, while Toyota is competitive across multiple powertrain pathways.

  Weaknesses

  BEV expansion remains at an early stage, with divergence in long-term transition capabilities.

  Comparison

  The report expects Japanese automakers' xEV penetration to reach 73% by 2030, including approximately 34% HEV and 23% BEV.

  Risks

  Insufficient speed of BEV transition, global competition, and policy uncertainty.

Key data

• Global xEV Sales in June 20261.98 million units, up 9% year over year and 12% month over monthYear-to-date sales totaled 9.3 million units, up 3% year over year.
• BEV and PHEV Sales in June 2026BEV: 1.42 million units, up 20% year over year; PHEV: 560,000 units, down 12% year over yearBEVs accounted for the majority of xEV sales in all major regions.
• Regional xEV SalesChina: 1.016 million units, -11% year over year; Europe: 539,000 units, +34% year over year; North America: 136,000 units, -4% year over year; other regions: 288,000 units, +104% year over yearChina accounted for 51% of global sales, while Europe accounted for 27%.
• Passenger-Vehicle Power-Battery Demand in June 2026112GWh, up 22% year over year and 14% month over monthYear-to-date demand reached 515GWh, up 14% year over year.
• June Installations of Major Battery MakersCATL: 42.3GWh, up 28% year over year, with a 38.7% share; BYD: 17.8GWh, down 2% year over year, with a 15.5% share; LGES: 11.8GWh, up 15% year over yearCATL's year-to-date share was approximately 39%, up from 2025.
• Battery Chemistry MixNMC share: 51%; LFP share: 49%China's LFP share was 72%, while overseas LFP share rose to 26%.

Impact & implications

For the battery supply chain, power-battery demand is growing faster than vehicle sales, benefiting leading suppliers with scale, technology, and profitability; CATL remains the report's top pick. For OEMs, accelerating electrification in Europe and overseas-market expansion present opportunities, but domestic Chinese demand, policy adjustments, and competitive intensity constrain near-term earnings improvement. Korean battery companies face pressure from U.S. capacity utilization and operating losses. Transitioning toward energy storage can provide medium- to long-term growth support, but the next 6–12 months remain challenging.

Risks

• A global macroeconomic slowdown and weak consumer confidence could suppress auto demand.
• Reduced Chinese subsidies, purchase-tax changes, and high bases may continue to weigh on domestic EV sales.
• U.S. demand may recover more slowly than expected following the removal of tax credits.
• Changes in European emissions regulations and incentive policies may alter OEM promotional and product-launch timing.
• Battery-industry price competition, raw-material cost volatility, and insufficient capacity utilization may compress profits.
• Data are based on multi-source monthly statistics with a one-month lag, and subsequent revisions may affect conclusions.

What to watch

• Whether U.S. EV sales can turn positive year over year after consecutive months of sequential improvement.
• Demand resilience and export growth in China following subsidy and purchase-tax adjustments.
• European BEV penetration, new model launches, and the intensity of price promotions.
• Whether the decline in global PHEV sales persists and whether structural BEV growth can continue.
• Installation shares, capacity utilization, and earnings performance of CATL, BYD, LGES, and Samsung SDI.
• Overseas LFP penetration, energy-storage demand, and the progress of Korean battery companies' transition.