US eCommerce: US e-commerce growth has accelerated to about 10%, with scale platforms and self-help initiatives capturing the gains

Overview

This industry report examines why US e-commerce growth has strengthened in 2026 and where the resulting GMV is flowing. Bernstein attributes the acceleration to a mix of better-than-expected consumer demand, more favorable digital-ad economics, AI-enabled conversion gains and company-specific execution, with large platforms continuing to consolidate share.

Core views

US e-commerce demand has accelerated unexpectedly over the past four quarters. Bernstein estimates industry GMV growth at about 10% year-on-year through the first three quarters of 2026, including its estimate for 3Q26, compared with an approximately 8% expectation at the start of the year. Major platforms are growing at mid-teens rates, while overall online penetration is around 17%, leaving room for further migration online. Constructive 3Q26 company guidance, even against more difficult comparisons, leads the report to conclude that the improvement cannot be explained only by temporary first-half effects. The report separates the drivers into top-of-funnel demand and onsite execution. On the demand side, consumer spending, retail activity and credit-card trends have remained solid on a nominal basis despite concerns about inflation, higher rates and oil prices. Tax refunds likely helped in 2Q26, but continued momentum into 3Q26 suggests a broader support. Digital advertising auctions also became more favorable after Amazon exited Google Product Listing Ads in August of the prior year and Temu and Shein adopted more rational spending patterns. Bernstein notes that strong guidance persists even as companies compare against the Amazon PLA effect, while Amazon's own GMV trajectory has remained strong. Bernstein identifies AI-driven ad improvements at Meta and Google as a more structural tailwind. Better recommendation, targeting, ranking and advertiser-automation tools are improving conversion rates and return on ad spend, helping merchants acquire customers more efficiently. The report describes this as a symbiotic relationship between leading digital-ad platforms and e-commerce businesses. At Meta, continued investment in recommendation and engagement systems, ad-ranking and retrieval systems, and advertiser automation is cited as evidence of stronger advertising performance over the past four quarters. Company-specific initiatives are an additional source of GMV momentum. Amazon is expanding Everyday Essentials, grocery and same-day delivery, reinforcing its logistics advantage; it delivered 40% more same-day and overnight items in 1H26 than in 1H25. Shopify's momentum reflects enterprise wins and international expansion. eBay is benefiting from investments in trust, authentication, search and listing tools alongside strength in collectibles, re-commerce and parts and accessories. Bernstein estimates Wayfair's rewards program has generated almost half of its growth this year, with six new stores expected by the end of next year adding support. Etsy is improving targeting, re-engagement, search and discovery while using social channels to attract younger customers. The report expects AI and machine learning to improve onsite search, discovery and personalization across marketplaces, particularly those with less-frequent user engagement and long tails of non-standardized inventory. Conversational and agentic commerce could support aggregate long-term e-commerce adoption if it delivers on its promise, although it could alter incumbent take-rate economics and the competitive order. GMV remains concentrated in large platforms. The top 14 e-commerce firms accounted for 82.4% of US GMV in 2Q26, up from 79.1% in 2Q25, while the share held by others fell to 17.6%. Amazon's share rose from 42.3% to 42.9%, Shopify's from 13.2% to 14.2%, Walmart's from 7.8% to 8.7%, eBay's from 3.2% to 3.5%, and Carvana's from 1.7% to 2.2%. Amazon, Shopify and Walmart captured the majority of incremental dollars, while Walmart, Shopify, Carvana and eBay outpaced Amazon's growth rate. Bernstein also sees the return to high-single-digit US GMV growth at Etsy and Wayfair as a meaningful improvement from prior periods. For 2027, Bernstein frames the central question as whether approximately 10% industry growth can persist. Its longer-term expectation is for 9-10% growth, supported by remaining penetration headroom and newer discretionary categories and verticals such as grocery. Sustained growth at roughly 10% would likely lead to further positive revenue revisions across the sector; a return to mid-single-digit growth would instead imply multiple compression. Bernstein therefore leans positive while recognizing that it does not have a single definitive explanation for the 2026 acceleration.

Analysis framework

Bernstein compares its industry GMV estimates with company results, guidance, consumer-spending and credit-card data, traffic indicators and advertising-auction conditions. It then separates broad demand and traffic drivers from company-specific conversion, retention, logistics and category-expansion initiatives, and assesses market-share changes among leading US platforms.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisSupply-demand framework

  Top-of-funnel demand drivers and onsite platform drivers

  The report explains industry GMV acceleration by separating external consumer demand and traffic conditions from platform actions that improve conversion, retention, delivery convenience and category reach.

• Industry AnalysisIndustry Concentration Analysis

  Platform GMV-share tracking

  Bernstein compares the shares of the top 14 platforms with the long tail to show that incremental e-commerce dollars are continuing to concentrate in larger platforms.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Amazon (AMZN)

  Outperform-rated e-commerce platform benefiting from strong GMV, logistics scale and expansion in grocery and everyday essentials.

  Strengths

  Same-day delivery expansion, grocery and consumables positioning, and 40% growth in same-day and overnight delivered items in 1H26.

  Comparison

  Captured a majority of incremental e-commerce dollars, though Walmart, Shopify, Carvana and eBay outpaced its growth rate in 2Q26.

  Risks

  Industry growth could revert to mid-single digits.

• Shopify (SHOP)

  Outperform-rated platform benefiting from enterprise wins, international expansion and share gains.

  Strengths

  US e-commerce share increased to 14.2% in 2Q26 from 13.2% in 2Q25.

  Comparison

  One of the most notable scale share gainers in 2Q26.

  Risks

  Industry-growth durability remains uncertain.

• Wayfair (W)

  Outperform-rated home-goods marketplace supported by rewards and physical-retail expansion.

  Strengths

  Rewards program contributed almost half of company growth by Bernstein's estimate.

  Comparison

  High-single-digit US GMV growth is a marked improvement from prior periods despite softer home-goods categories.

  Risks

  Dependence on continued rewards-program contribution and home-goods demand improvement.

• eBay (EBAY)

  Market-Perform-rated marketplace benefiting from strategic-priority investments and favorable end markets.

  Strengths

  Trust, authentication, search, listing tools and AI-enabled seller tools support growth.

  Comparison

  Share rose to 3.5% in 2Q26 from 3.2% in 2Q25 and the company punched above its weight in incremental GMV.

  Risks

  Industry-growth durability remains uncertain.

• Etsy (ETSY)

  Market-Perform-rated marketplace improving search, discovery, targeting and re-engagement.

  Strengths

  AI and machine-learning capabilities can improve inventory understanding, recommendations and average order values.

  Comparison

  High-single-digit US GMV growth represents a substantial improvement from prior periods.

  Risks

  Industry-growth durability remains uncertain.

• Meta Platforms (META)

  Outperform-rated digital-ad platform whose AI advertising improvements support e-commerce conversion.

  Strengths

  Recommendation, ranking, retrieval and advertiser-automation systems are improving engagement and advertiser outcomes.

  Comparison

  Along with Google, Meta is presented as a beneficiary and enabler of improving e-commerce advertising efficiency.

• Alphabet (GOOGL)

  Market-Perform-rated digital-ad platform linked to better e-commerce targeting and conversion.

  Strengths

  AI-driven advertising-platform improvements support recommendation and targeting efficiency.

  Comparison

  Amazon's prior exit from Google PLAs contributed to more favorable auction dynamics for the broader e-commerce sector.

Key data

• US e-commerce GMV growth~10% Y/YEstimated through the first three quarters of 2026, versus Bernstein's ~8% expectation entering the year.
• Top 14 platform share of US GMV82.4%2Q26 share, up from 79.1% in 2Q25, a 3.2 percentage-point increase.
• Amazon share of US e-commerce42.9%2Q26 share, up from 42.3% in 2Q25.
• Shopify share of US e-commerce14.2%2Q26 share, up from 13.2% in 2Q25.
• Amazon same-day and overnight deliveries40% more items1H26 versus 1H25.
• Wayfair growth contribution from rewardsAlmost half of growthBernstein's estimate for 2026.

Impact & implications

Bernstein sees broadening e-commerce momentum and continued scale-platform share gains as supportive for sector revenue trends. It argues that sustained approximately 10% industry growth into 2027 could drive positive revenue revisions, whereas a reversion to mid-single-digit growth could pressure valuation multiples.

Risks

• A reversion of US e-commerce growth to mid-single digits could lead to valuation-multiple compression.
• Higher interest rates, inflation and rising oil prices could weaken consumer demand and challenge the durability of current growth.
• Agentic commerce may alter incumbent marketplace take-rate economics and disrupt the current competitive order.

What to watch

• Whether 3Q26 guidance and GMV trends remain constructive after tougher comparisons and normalization of Prime Day timing.
• Whether approximately 10% US e-commerce growth can persist into 2027.
• Further market-share changes among large platforms, especially Amazon, Shopify, Walmart, eBay and Carvana.
• Evidence that AI-driven advertising, search, discovery and personalization improvements continue to lift conversion and retention.