Active buyer growth in U.S. e-commerce shows signs of stabilization, but frequency and the macro backdrop remain the key variables

Overview

This report focuses on active buyer trends at U.S. e-commerce platforms eBay, Etsy, and Wayfair, with the central question being whether active buyer growth has already bottomed and turned upward. Bernstein believes active buyers at the three companies were flat to improving sequentially in 1Q26, and that more positive signals in new buyers suggest demand may have moved from a weak phase into stabilization. However, active buyers are only one component of GMV growth; order frequency, the consumption environment, customer acquisition costs, changes in advertising channels, and valuation still determine the stock upside.

Core views

The report's core view is: first, active buyer metrics have stabilized over the past two quarters, but year-over-year performance remains mixed, with Etsy still negative but narrowing, Wayfair improving to positive growth, and eBay maintaining slight positive growth. Second, improving new buyers and net new buyers are necessary conditions for active buyer recovery ahead; both Etsy and Wayfair show y/y acceleration. Third, true intra-quarter demand should be judged alongside order growth, purchase frequency, and GMV; Wayfair's order growth has returned to positive territory, while eBay's buyer count, funnel structure, frequency, and spend are more balanced. Fourth, the industry still faces uncertainties such as the macro消费 backdrop, tariffs, the expiration of Google Shopping acquisition tailwinds, and AI referral traffic that is still small, so ratings remain neutral.

Analysis framework

The report compares eBay, Etsy, and Wayfair across active buyers, y/y growth, new buyers, churned buyers, order growth, and GMV momentum to assess the demand inflection point, and updates target prices using valuation methodologies. On valuation, eBay uses a 50/50 blend of 17.5x non-GAAP EPS and DCF, with a 10.0% WACC and 3% perpetual growth rate; Etsy uses a 50/50 blend of 8.0x NTM EV/EBITDA and DCF, with a 12.0% WACC and 2.0% perpetual growth rate; Wayfair uses a 50/50 blend of 15x NTM EV/EBITDA and DCF, with a 12.0% WACC and 3.0% perpetual growth rate.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsComps plus DCF

  Combining relative valuation with discounted cash flow

  The report uses a 50/50 blend of comparable multiples and DCF for eBay, Etsy, and Wayfair to reflect both market trading multiples and long-term cash flow assumptions.

• operating_metricsActive Buyer cohort analysis

  Active buyer cohort analysis

  Active buyers are defined as users who made a purchase in the past twelve months, so y/y and sequential changes are affected by new buyers, churned buyers, purchase frequency, and strong historical bases rolling out of the window.

• demand_proxyOrder growth proxy

  Using order growth as a proxy for intra-quarter demand

  Because the companies do not disclose quarterly active buyers, the report uses Wayfair's order growth and similar indicators to approximate intra-quarter demand strength and cross-checks them against active buyer trends.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• eBay Inc (US.EBAY)

  Core coverage company, rated Market-Perform

  Strengths

  Focus Category strategy, expansion of the U.S. buyer funnel, GMV momentum, ad revenue, and buybacks may support earnings.

  Weaknesses

  The current share price offers little upside to target, and the durability of future growth and the EPS growth algorithm remain in question.

  Comparison

  Compared with Etsy, eBay's active buyer y/y growth is more stable; compared with Wayfair, its valuation upside is more limited.

  Risks

  Intensifying competition, profit pressure from UK pricing adjustments, macro and tariff shocks, GMV missing expectations, and slower ad monetization.

• Etsy Inc (ETSY)

  Core coverage company, rated Market-Perform

  Strengths

  New buyer growth has turned positive, churn pressure may ease, valuation multiples are relatively low versus history, and a better-than-expected GMS print could drive a re-rating.

  Weaknesses

  Active buyer y/y growth is still negative, and the recovery in core-market order frequency and expansion into new customer cohorts still needs to be validated.

  Comparison

  Among the three companies, Etsy still has the weakest active buyer trend, but the marginal improvement is clear.

  Risks

  A renewed deterioration in GMS and active buyers, limited buyer TAM, insufficient expansion into Gen Z and male cohorts, margin compression, and tariff-related pressure on cross-border GMV.

• Wayfair Inc (US.W)

  Core coverage company, rated Market-Perform

  Strengths

  Order growth has returned to positive territory, new buyers and active buyers are improving, and if home demand recovers and cost leverage materializes, FCF has room to improve.

  Weaknesses

  Home goods have long purchase cycles, acquisition costs and repeat frequency remain under pressure, and the exit from Germany also distorts historical metrics.

  Comparison

  Wayfair shows the most visible y/y improvement in active buyers, but its business depends more heavily on the macro housing and home-consumption cycle.

  Risks

  A weaker macro backdrop, online penetration pulled forward by the pandemic, a narrowing new-customer funnel, competition from Amazon and big-box retailers, and advertising and labor spending limiting margins.

Key data

• 1Q26 active buyer trendeBay, Etsy, and Wayfair were flat to up sequentiallyThis continued the improvement seen in 4Q25, indicating that active buyer metrics have stabilized.
• eBay 1Q26 active buyer y/y growthabout 0.9%The chart shows eBay active buyers continued to post slight positive y/y growth.
• Wayfair 1Q26 active buyer y/y growthabout 1.4%Improved from about -5.5% in 1Q25 to positive growth in 1Q26.
• Etsy 1Q26 active buyer y/y growthabout -2.0%Still negative, but improved from the mid-2025 low of around -5%.
• eBay target price$100Raised from $95, reflecting sustained business momentum and an increase in the DCF perpetual growth assumption to 3%.
• Wayfair target price$85Lowered from $100 because the comparable valuation multiple was cut from 18x to 15x Adj. EBITDA.
• Etsy target price$65Based on a 50/50 blend of 8.0x NTM EV/EBITDA and DCF.

Impact & implications

If improvement in new buyers and easing churn pressures persist, active buyer growth at e-commerce platforms could become an important foundation for GMV recovery in 2027. But the stock-level view is not uniformly bullish: eBay is executing well, yet its target price is below the current share price, leaving limited valuation upside; Etsy still needs to prove that GMS and active buyers can sustainably reaccelerate; Wayfair has more upside, but it is also more sensitive to home demand, acquisition efficiency, and repeat purchase frequency.

Risks

• A deteriorating macro environment, weaker consumer confidence, or tariff policy shocks could weigh on GMV and active buyers.
• The acquisition tailwind from improved Google Shopping ad conditions will start facing tougher y/y comparisons in 3Q26.
• Active buyers are measured on a trailing twelve-month basis, so they may lag true quarterly demand and may also be affected by strong historical bases rolling out of the comparison window.
• AI referral traffic is growing quickly, but the current scale is still small and unlikely to become a major growth driver in the near term.
• Intensifying competition, rising acquisition costs, and insufficient order frequency could constrain the long-term growth algorithm.

What to watch

• Whether active buyers continue to improve sequentially in 2Q26 and 3Q26.
• Whether Etsy's new buyer growth can keep active buyers moving back to positive growth.
• Whether Wayfair order growth can remain above low-single-digit growth and translate into repeat purchases and active buyer growth.
• Whether eBay's Focus Category strategy can continue to sustain GMV acceleration and U.S. buyer growth.
• After the Google Shopping acquisition tailwind laps a high base in 3Q26, whether customer acquisition efficiency deteriorates.
• Whether AI referral traffic can move from rapid growth at a small base to measurable order or GMV contribution.