U.S. card growth may be outpacing consumption again, with e-commerce and tokenization providing two incremental growth avenues

Overview

The report reassesses whether the U.S. card market has entered a mature phase in which it can grow by only 5%—6%. Bernstein notes that card payment volume’s lead over PCE, renewed e-commerce acceleration, and the penetration and pricing potential of tokenization all suggest that Visa and Mastercard may still have greater growth potential than current long-term forecasts imply, although one quarter of data is insufficient to establish a trend.

Core views

For more than two years, U.S. card payment volume had broadly tracked nominal personal consumption expenditures（PCE）, leading the market to increasingly accept the view that the United States is a mature card market whose future payment volume growth will be approximately 5%—6%. Bernstein believes this issue warrants renewed discussion: Visa and Mastercard’s U.S. payment volume grew 10% in the latest quarter, adjusted for the Discover migration, marking the strongest result since the second quarter of 2023; excluding the post-pandemic recovery period, it was also the strongest since 2019. The report also cautions that the quarter benefited from higher tax refunds, gasoline prices, retail promotions, and FIFA events, so one quarter’s performance cannot be directly viewed as a new trend. More important than the single-quarter data is that card payment volume has grown 2—3 percentage points faster than PCE for several consecutive quarters, once again approaching the relative growth pattern seen before the pandemic. Even excluding Visa Direct, payment volume growth remains approximately 2 percentage points faster than PCE. The report also conducts a cross-check using adjusted PCE: after excluding categories that cards have difficulty covering, such as imputed rent, healthcare, motor vehicles and parts, education, foreign travel, social services, and financial services, card payment volume still grows faster. Overall PCE growth increased by 1 percentage point in the second quarter, primarily driven by durable goods and gasoline, but card payment volume accelerated by more, with exposure also including gasoline, FIFA events, and certain durable goods categories. Bernstein views e-commerce as a key variable in explaining changes in card growth. E-commerce transactions depend more heavily on cards than in-store transactions and are more closely tied to discretionary consumption, where cards have historically had a higher share; consequently, it is not a coincidence that the sharp post-pandemic slowdown in e-commerce occurred alongside a slowdown in card payment volume. U.S. e-commerce grew 12% in the second quarter, the strongest in four years, while average growth rates in 2023, 2024, and 2025 were 9%, 8%, and 5%, respectively. Discretionary e-commerce platforms such as Wayfair, eBay, and Etsy have also reported improving metrics since the end of the previous year, while second-half guidance remains solid, indicating that the acceleration is not entirely confined to a single quarter. Weaker July data may have reflected the timing of Prime Day, which pulled some demand forward into the second quarter. It remains uncertain whether the e-commerce recovery represents a temporary rebound or a structural change. Tax refunds and the timing of Prime Day may have amplified the second-quarter data, but e-commerce has remained strong since the end of the previous year. The report offers one possible explanation: the market may be emerging from the post-pandemic e-commerce slump, during which certain durable goods categories were weak and housing expenditures also crowded out some discretionary goods spending. Bernstein explicitly states that it is still too early to confirm this trend. In its current long-term model, Bernstein forecasts approximately 5%—6% growth in U.S. card payment volume for 2025—2030, comprising approximately 4%—5% from PCE growth and approximately 1%—2% from increased card penetration; over the same period, U.S. card penetration is expected to rise from 72% to 74%. This forecast assumes future e-commerce growth at the low end of the mid- to high-single-digit range. If e-commerce can sustain near-double-digit growth over the next several years, the firm believes it may need to raise its U.S. card payment volume forecast. Agentic commerce, which remains at an early stage, could also shift some high-consideration purchases online and further promote e-commerce growth through new methods of product discovery. Tokenization is the second growth avenue that the report believes remains underappreciated. More than 40% of all card transactions are now tokenized; the tokenized share of e-commerce transactions is approximately 60% and continues to rise by approximately a mid-single-digit number of percentage points annually. Visa has 17.5 billion tokens mapped to 5.2 billion cards, whereas five years ago there were fewer than 0.5 tokens mapped to each card. Over the past two years, tokenized payment volume recorded a compound growth rate of 25%, significantly above the 9% compound growth rate for all transactions. Higher token penetration not only increases the volume of related services but also supports payment network growth by strengthening the usage stickiness of existing cards. Visa and Mastercard have already begun pricing token services. Bernstein estimates that Visa’s global effective token yield, defined as token revenue divided by tokenized payment volume, is currently approximately 1—2 basis points; pricing for card-not-present cross-border transactions has reached 8 basis points in some regions, while card-not-present domestic transactions have reached 5 basis points. Because tokens deliver a meaningful advantage in authorization success rates, the report believes pricing could eventually reach 10 basis points or more. Broadly speaking, every additional basis point of token pricing could contribute approximately 1 percentage point to revenue growth, and because token penetration itself continues to rise, pricing and expanded transaction coverage can support revenue growth simultaneously. The report also makes minor model adjustments based on Adyen’s first-half 2026 update, management commentary, and guidance. Adyen continues to be valued using a PEG methodology, with the target price maintained at €1,600, based on an unchanged 1.3x FY2027 PEG, an unchanged 23% earnings compound growth rate for 2025—2027, and an FY2027 earnings-per-share forecast adjusted slightly from €51.05 to €51.07. As of August 19, 2026, Adyen’s share price was €1,054.60; Bernstein also rates it Outperform.

Analysis framework

Bernstein first compares card payment volume with nominal PCE and adjusted PCE to determine whether the recent lead has returned to the pre-pandemic pattern; it then uses e-commerce growth, operating metrics from discretionary e-commerce companies, and changes in consumption categories as explanatory variables for the acceleration in payment volume. The firm subsequently separates the contributions of PCE growth and penetration to test the sensitivity of its current 2025—2030 forecast to e-commerce growth assumptions. Finally, the report separately analyzes token penetration, transaction growth, and unit pricing, and updates Adyen’s valuation using a PEG framework.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Sector Analysis FrameworkVolume-price decomposition

  Decomposition of U.S. card payment volume growth drivers

  The report decomposes the approximately 5%—6% card payment volume growth forecast for 2025—2030 into approximately 4%—5% PCE growth and approximately 1%—2% contribution from increased card penetration to assess whether changes in e-commerce growth would raise the long-term forecast.

• （Out-of-vocabulary Method）

  Comparable adjusted PCE measure

  The report excludes categories that cards have difficulty covering from PCE, including imputed rent, healthcare, motor vehicles and parts, education, foreign travel, social services, and financial services, and then compares the result with card payment volume to reduce the impact of differences in consumption mix on its conclusions.

• （Out-of-vocabulary Method）

  Effective token yield

  The report estimates token yield by dividing token revenue by Visa’s tokenized payment volume and assesses the monetization potential of token services by estimating that each additional basis point of pricing corresponds to approximately 1 percentage point of revenue growth.

• Valuation MethodPE/PEG valuation

  Adyen PEG valuation

  Adyen’s €1,600 target price is based on a 1.3x FY2027 PEG, a 23% earnings compound growth rate for 2025—2027, and an FY2027 earnings-per-share forecast of €51.07.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Visa（V）

  U.S. card payment volume once again outpacing PCE, accelerating e-commerce growth, and increased token penetration and pricing could all support its payment volume and revenue growth.

  Strengths

  It has 17.5 billion tokens mapped to 5.2 billion cards; its global effective token yield is currently only approximately 1—2 basis points, and the report believes there is still substantial room for pricing increases.

  Weaknesses

  The current long-term forecast for U.S. card payment volume growth remains only approximately 5%—6%, while the recent 10% growth rate was supported by tax refunds, gasoline prices, promotions, and FIFA.

  Comparison

  The report combines payment volume from Visa, Mastercard, American Express, and Discover to compare growth in the U.S. card market and does not offer a new conclusion regarding the relative merits of Visa and Mastercard.

  Risks

  The recent acceleration in e-commerce and payment volume may be temporary and is not yet sufficient to confirm that the long-term forecast needs to be raised.

• Mastercard（MA）

  Like Visa, its U.S. payment volume is positioned to benefit from cards once again outpacing PCE, a recovery in e-commerce growth, and the monetization of token services.

  Strengths

  More than 40% of overall transactions have already been tokenized, and tokenized payment volume is growing significantly faster than all transactions.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not separately quantify Mastercard’s token yield or contribution to the current growth cycle.

  Comparison

  The report presents a shared U.S. card growth thesis for Visa and Mastercard and does not establish a new relative ranking in the main text.

  Risks

  If the e-commerce recovery is not sustained, card payment volume growth may remain close to the current mature-market assumption of 5%—6%.

• Adyen（ADYEN.NA）

  The report makes minor model adjustments based on the first-half 2026 update, company commentary, and guidance, but maintains its PEG valuation parameters and target price.

  Strengths

  The 2025—2027 earnings compound growth forecast remains 23%, while the FY2027 earnings-per-share forecast was raised slightly to €51.07.

  Weaknesses

  The model adjustments are minimal, with no changes to the core valuation multiple or earnings growth assumptions.

  Comparison

  The report provides no new peer valuation comparison.

Key data

• Visa and Mastercard U.S. payment volume growth10%Latest-quarter data, adjusted for the Discover migration; the strongest since the second quarter of 2023.
• Card payment volume growth lead over PCE2—3 percentage pointsObserved for several consecutive quarters, approaching the pre-pandemic trend.
• Growth lead excluding Visa DirectApproximately 2 percentage pointsU.S. card payment volume growth relative to PCE.
• Second-quarter U.S. e-commerce growth12%The strongest in four years; average growth rates in 2023, 2024, and 2025 were 9%, 8%, and 5%, respectively.
• Change in overall second-quarter PCE growthIncreased by 1 percentage pointPrimarily driven by durable goods and gasoline, but card payment volume accelerated by more.
• Long-term U.S. card payment volume forecastApproximately 5%—6% in 2025—2030Approximately 4%—5% from PCE and approximately 1%—2% from increased penetration.
• U.S. card penetration forecastIncrease from 72% to 74%The 2025—2030 penetration trajectory used in the current long-term forecast.
• Share of all transactions tokenizedMore than 40%Includes e-commerce and in-store transactions.
• Share of e-commerce transactions tokenizedApproximately 60%Penetration rises by approximately a mid-single-digit number of percentage points annually.
• Number of Visa tokens and cards17.5 billion tokens、5.2 billion cardsFive years ago, fewer than 0.5 tokens were mapped to each card.
• Compound growth rate of tokenized payment volume25%Data for the past two years; the compound growth rate for all transactions over the same period was 9%.
• Visa global effective token yieldApproximately 1—2 basis pointsPricing for card-not-present cross-border and domestic transactions in some regions has reached 8 and 5 basis points, respectively.
• Revenue sensitivity to token pricingEach basis point corresponds to approximately 1 percentage point of revenueBernstein’s rough estimate.
• Adyen target price€1,600Based on a 1.3x FY2027 PEG, with the valuation multiple unchanged.
• Adyen FY2027 earnings-per-share forecast€51.07Previously €51.05; the 2025—2027 earnings compound growth forecast remains 23%.

Impact & implications

The report believes that if card payment volume continues to grow 2—3 percentage points faster than PCE and U.S. e-commerce growth stabilizes at a higher level, Visa and Mastercard’s U.S. payment volume growth could exceed the current 5%—6% forecast for 2025—2030. Meanwhile, tokenization could both expand transaction coverage through increased penetration and generate incremental revenue by raising unit pricing from the current approximately 1—2 basis points. However, the firm has not formally raised its U.S. payment volume forecast and emphasizes the need to confirm whether the recent acceleration in e-commerce and payment volume is sustainable.

Risks

• Strong payment volume in the latest quarter was supported by higher tax refunds, gasoline prices, retail promotions, and FIFA events, so one quarter’s performance may not develop into a trend.
• E-commerce acceleration may have been driven by short-term factors such as the timing of Prime Day; Bernstein believes it is still too early to determine whether it is structural.
• If e-commerce growth does not remain close to a double-digit rate, U.S. card payment volume may still align with the current long-term growth forecast of approximately 5%—6%.

What to watch

• Track whether U.S. card payment volume continues to grow 2—3 percentage points faster than nominal PCE and adjusted PCE.
• Monitor whether U.S. e-commerce growth can remain elevated after timing effects such as Prime Day and tax refunds fade.
• Watch the second-half operating metrics and delivery against guidance of discretionary e-commerce platforms such as Wayfair, eBay, and Etsy.
• Track token penetration in e-commerce and all transactions, the number of tokens, and tokenized payment volume growth.
• Monitor whether Visa and Mastercard’s token pricing continues to rise from the current approximately 1—2 basis points and whether Bernstein raises its 2025—2030 U.S. card payment volume forecast.