Express ASP continued to recover in March, while e-commerce momentum slowed but remained solid in 1Q26

Overview

This report covers China’s logistics, express parcel, and e-commerce sectors. The core conclusion is that March industry data showed two parallel trends: on the one hand, monthly growth in express parcel volume and e-commerce GMV pulled back from elevated levels at the start of the year; on the other hand, express ASP continued to recover and anti-involution policy discipline remained in place, indicating that industry competition is becoming more rational. JPMorgan therefore maintains an overall optimistic view on the sector, but emphasizes stock selection driven by company-specific factors, earnings resilience, and strategic clarity.

Core views

The key views include: first, March express industry parcel volume grew 3.5% year over year, below 7.1% in January-February, but industry revenue and ASP were stronger, indicating improved pricing power. Second, anti-involution measures did not fade quickly after the Lunar New Year, and regulators continued to emphasize rational competition and reducing ultra-low-price traffic. Third, differentiation among major companies is clear: YTO led in volume growth, STO benefited from the Daniao integration, Yunda improved ASP by reducing low-price traffic, and SF traded off some volume for better revenue quality and earnings resilience. Fourth, e-commerce momentum slowed in March, but overall online retail, online physical goods GMV, and penetration in 1Q26 still showed structural resilience. Fifth, share price performance continues to favor leaders with strong execution, policy tailwinds, and clearer earnings quality.

Analysis framework

The report combines analysis of monthly industry operating data, company-level express volume and pricing performance, e-commerce retail data, and share price performance. At the industry level, it focuses on parcel volume, revenue, ASP, and year-over-year changes; at the company level, it compares shipment volume, market share, and ASP across Yunda, YTO, STO, SF, and others; at the e-commerce level, it tracks online physical goods GMV, online retail sales, online penetration, and category performance; at the investment level, it screens for targets with better risk-reward profiles by combining one-month and year-to-date share price performance, ratings, target prices, valuation, and expected earnings growth.

Methodology notes

• Industry volume-price analysisASP and volume growth framework

  Use parcel volume growth, revenue growth, and ASP changes to assess the quality of industry competition.

  When volume growth slows but ASP and revenue continue to improve, it suggests the industry may be shifting from low-price expansion toward a growth model that places greater emphasis on returns and margins.

• Competitive landscape analysisAnti-involution and industry discipline framework

  Assess whether competition is becoming more rational through regulatory discipline and changes in ultra-low-price traffic.

  The report believes anti-involution measures have proven more persistent than expected, helping leading companies reduce price-war pressure and redirect resources toward service quality and profitability.

• Stock comparisonExecution and margin resilience screening

  Selectively allocate based on company execution, cost discipline, technological advantages, market share, and earnings quality.

  ZTO and JD Logistics are named as top picks for their execution, technology leadership, and ability to gain share; SF and YMM have performed more weakly due to margin pressure, strategic adjustment, or regulatory factors.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• ZTO Express

  One of the top picks, rated OW.

  Strengths

  Strong execution, clear technology leadership, leading year-to-date share price performance, and the ability to capture incremental market share during industry consolidation.

  Weaknesses

  The report indicates implied upside to target price is 11%-13%, which is not the highest relative to some lagging names.

  Comparison

  Year to date, ZTO H is up 25% and ZTO US is up 23%, significantly outperforming most indices and some peers.

  Risks

  If industry volume continues to slow, price discipline weakens, or cost improvements fall short of expectations, earnings leverage may come under pressure.

• JD Logistics

  One of the top picks, rated OW.

  Strengths

  Benefits from strong execution, technological capability, and support from high-frequency tech-related e-commerce demand; shares are up 33% year to date.

  Weaknesses

  The table shows a target price of 15.00, slightly below the current price of 15.14, implying limited near-term upside to target price.

  Comparison

  Together with ZTO, the report views it as one of the sector’s best performers year to date.

  Risks

  If e-commerce GMV growth continues to slow or platform logistics demand comes in below expectations, revenue growth and valuation may come under pressure.

• SF Holding-A/H

  Still rated OW, but the report views it as a clear laggard both recently and year to date.

  Strengths

  March ASP rose 4% year over year to Rmb14.40, with some improvement in revenue quality and margin resilience; target prices imply 37% and 33% upside for A/H shares respectively.

  Weaknesses

  Volume declined 3% year over year, and strategic adjustments plus margin pressure continue to weigh on market sentiment.

  Comparison

  Year to date, SF Holding-A is down 5% and SF Holding-H is up 2%, clearly lagging YTO, JD Logistics, STO, and ZTO.

  Risks

  Slow progress in strategic repositioning, continued margin pressure, or unsuccessful adjustments in e-commerce parcel strategy could continue to suppress valuation recovery.

• YMM / FTA

  Recently upgraded to Neutral, but still needs regulatory pressure to ease and order trends to recover.

  Strengths

  The report believes the worst-case scenario may already be partly reflected in the share price.

  Weaknesses

  Share price performance has been weak, down 19% year to date, and the platform model faces structural pressure.

  Comparison

  Compared with express delivery leaders, YMM has clearly underperformed in the current regulatory and competitive environment.

  Risks

  Regulatory headwinds, insufficient order recovery, and uncertainty around profitability of the platform model.

• YTO Express

  Not covered or NC, but led March volume growth.

  Strengths

  March parcel volume was 2.84B, up 7% year over year, with market share at 16.5%; shares are up 34% year to date.

  Weaknesses

  ASP fell 2% year over year, indicating pricing pressure remains.

  Comparison

  Its year-to-date share price performance is among the strongest among Chinese logistics companies in the table.

  Risks

  If ASP continues to weaken, the earnings contribution from volume growth could be offset.

• STO Express

  Not covered or NC, but benefiting from integration and catch-up gains.

  Strengths

  March parcel volume rose 20% year over year and ASP increased 11% year over year, showing benefits from Daniao integration and product mix improvement.

  Weaknesses

  After a rapid rise, valuation and sustainability still need to be validated.

  Comparison

  Up 17% over one month and 30% year to date, showing significant short-term catch-up gains.

  Risks

  If integration benefits slow, expectations after the share price catch-up may face a pullback.

• Yunda Holding

  Not covered or NC, reflecting a returns-first strategy.

  Strengths

  By trimming ultra-low-price traffic, March ASP rose 9% year over year.

  Weaknesses

  March parcel volume fell 5% year over year, putting scale growth under pressure.

  Comparison

  Up 10% year to date, lagging YTO, STO, ZTO, and JD Logistics.

  Risks

  If volume decline continues, ASP improvement may not be enough to fully support earnings growth.

Key data

• March industry parcel volume17.24BUp 3.5% year over year, slower than 7.1% growth in January-February.
• March industry revenueRmb130.47BUp 4.7% year over year, outpacing parcel volume growth.
• March industry ASPRmb7.57Up 1.2% year over year, with positive improvement for the second consecutive month.
• 1Q26 China online retail salesRmb4,977BUp 8.0% year over year, higher than 5.8% in 4Q25.
• 1Q26 online physical goods GMVRmb3,161BUp 7.5% year over year, a marked improvement from 2.3% in 4Q25.
• 1Q26 online physical goods penetration24.8%Up 0.8 percentage points year over year.
• March online physical goods GMV growth2.5% Y/YSlowed significantly from 10.3% in January-February, indicating some front-loaded demand.
• March communication equipment sales growth27% Y/YAccelerated further from 18% in January-February, making it a bright spot for e-commerce and logistics demand.
• March home appliance sales growth-5% Y/YWeakened from 3% growth in January-February due to a high base driven by last year’s policy support.
• YTO March performance2.84B parcels, ASP Rmb2.14Volume grew 7% year over year, market share reached 16.5%, but ASP declined 2% year over year.
• STO March performance2.50B parcels, ASP Rmb2.24Volume grew 20% year over year and ASP rose 11% year over year, benefiting from the Daniao integration.
• Yunda March performance2.14B parcels, ASP Rmb2.14Volume declined 5% year over year while ASP rose 9% year over year, reflecting a returns-first strategy.
• SF March performance1.25B parcels, ASP Rmb14.40Volume declined 3% year over year while ASP rose 4% year over year, indicating improved revenue quality.

Impact & implications

For investors, slower industry volume does not necessarily mean worsening sector fundamentals, because ASP recovery and regulatory discipline may improve earnings quality. Monthly volatility on the e-commerce side deserves attention, but overall 1Q26 growth, higher online penetration, and strong communication equipment demand suggest underlying demand remains supportive. In portfolio positioning, the report prefers leaders with scale advantages, cost discipline, technological capability, and strategic clarity, rather than simply chasing low valuations or short-term catch-up trades.

Risks

• Monthly e-commerce GMV growth may continue to slow, leading logistics demand to come in below expectations.
• If anti-involution and regulatory discipline weaken at the margin, the industry may fall back into price wars.
• Optional categories such as home appliances may be dragged down by a high base and cyclical factors, affecting the structure of e-commerce logistics demand.
• Strategic adjustments, margin pressure, or platform regulatory risk at individual companies may continue to weigh on valuations.
• For leaders whose share prices have already risen significantly, valuation pullbacks may occur if earnings delivery falls short.

What to watch

• Whether industry ASP maintains positive year-over-year growth in subsequent months.
• Whether express parcel volume growth stabilizes, and whether the slowdown broadens to more companies.
• The sustainability of regulatory efforts on anti-involution, rational competition, and governance of ultra-low-price traffic.
• Changes in online physical goods GMV, online retail sales, and penetration in 2Q26.
• Whether strength in communication equipment can continue, and whether home appliance demand can recover from high-base pressure.
• Relative performance in orders, margins, and share prices for ZTO, JD Logistics, SF, and YMM.