Anti-involution supports express pricing recovery, while cooling e-commerce demand drives sector differentiation

Overview

This report summarizes key discussion points from China logistics, express parcel, and e-commerce-related companies at J.P. Morgan’s Global China Summit in May 2026, and combines them with April SPB express delivery data and NBS online retail data to assess industry trends. The core conclusion is that the express segment is supported by policy anti-involution measures, price discipline, and ASP recovery, improving the quality of industry revenue; however, demand on the e-commerce side has slowed significantly, especially in discretionary consumer categories such as electronics, home appliances, apparel, and daily necessities, which may weigh on 2Q e-commerce GMV and revenue performance.

Core views

The express delivery industry is moving from a structural phase of 'trading price for volume' to one that prioritizes returns and service quality. Policy discipline reduces the risk of low-price competition, while leading companies use automation, last-mile efficiency, reverse logistics, and cost pass-through to preserve unit economics. Meanwhile, weak e-commerce demand reduces the elasticity of parcel volume growth, and rising fuel prices continue to test cost pass-through ability. The report recommends maintaining selective positioning, favoring ZTO and JD Logistics, which have higher execution visibility and benefit from a more rational industry environment; although SF remains OW, near-term sentiment improvement depends on progress in its strategic reset; YMM, meanwhile, needs to wait for easing regulatory pressure and a recovery in order trends.

Analysis framework

The report uses a cross-validation approach combining conference takeaways with monthly data: on one hand, it distills management commentary from ZTO, J&T, Yunda, and YMM on policy, pricing, costs, overseas expansion, and service quality; on the other hand, it uses SPB express delivery industry data to measure parcel volume, revenue, and ASP trends, and NBS online retail data to observe e-commerce demand and category differentiation.

Methodology notes

• Industry Structure AnalysisAnti-involution and Price Discipline Framework

  By observing policy discipline, governance of low-price traffic, and ASP changes, assess whether the express delivery industry is shifting from price wars to improved revenue quality.

  The report believes anti-involution measures have shifted from a short-term campaign to more repeatable operating rules, including price discipline, grassroots outlet stability, and service quality requirements, which help leading players maintain profitability.

• Operating Data TrackingSPB Monthly Express Delivery Data

  Use parcel volume, revenue, and ASP to measure the quality of growth in the express delivery industry.

  April parcel volume growth was moderate, but revenue grew faster, and ASP rose YoY, indicating that industry growth no longer relies purely on parcel volume expansion.

• Demand AnalysisNBS Online Retail Data

  Use the growth rates of online retail and online physical goods GMV to judge the strength of e-commerce demand.

  Growth in April online retail and physical goods GMV cooled significantly, and categories such as home appliances, communication devices, apparel, and daily necessities showed that discretionary consumption demand remains weak.

• Company ComparisonManagement Communication and Share Price Performance Review

  Combine management commentary, operating metrics, and recent share price performance to identify relative positioning opportunities within the sector.

  The report maps differences among ZTO, JD Logistics, SF, YMM, J&T, Yunda, and others in pricing, costs, service quality, overseas expansion, and regulatory pressure into investment preferences.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• ZTO Express / ZTO / 2057.HK

  One of the report’s top picks, rated OW.

  Strengths

  Parcel volume growth remains significantly faster than the industry, with strong service quality and network capability; reverse logistics can process about 10MM parcels at peak per day, and improvements in last-mile automation and direct sorting support cost efficiency.

  Weaknesses

  Parcel volume growth so far in 2Q is below 1Q, and there is no full certainty that policy support will continue through 2027.

  Comparison

  Compared with most peers, ZTO has better visibility in growth, service quality, and reverse logistics capability.

  Risks

  Weaker anti-involution policies, renewed price competition, rising fuel costs, franchise network stability, and slowing e-commerce demand.

• JD Logistics / 2618.HK

  One of the report’s top picks, rated OW.

  Strengths

  Benefits from more rational industry competition, preference for service quality, and integrated logistics capabilities, and its share price performance year to date remains relatively solid.

  Weaknesses

  Its share price has fallen sharply over the past month, and weak e-commerce demand, especially in electronics categories, may affect related logistics demand.

  Comparison

  Compared with traditional express delivery companies, JD Logistics is more dependent on integrated services and demand tied to the e-commerce ecosystem.

  Risks

  2Q e-commerce GMV and revenue missing expectations, a high base in electronics categories, reduced subsidy intensity, and cost pressure.

• S.F. Holding - A / 002352.SZ; S.F. Holding - H / 6936.HK

  Maintained at OW, but not a top pick in the report.

  Strengths

  April ASP rose 5% YoY to Rmb14.2, showing improvement in revenue quality and earnings resilience.

  Weaknesses

  Its e-commerce strategy is still being adjusted, parcel volume fell 3% YoY, and its share price continues to lag year to date.

  Comparison

  Compared with ZTO and JD Logistics, SF currently relies more on progress in its strategic reset to improve market sentiment.

  Risks

  Strategic transformation progressing slower than expected, cost pressure, parcel volume pressure from shrinking low-price traffic, and insufficient recovery in investor confidence.

• Full Truck Alliance / YMM

  Maintained at Neutral.

  Strengths

  Full-year direct transaction volume guidance remains 13% to 17%, demand lost after the regulatory shock has recovered, the medium-term take rate target is at least 3%, and AI is being used to optimize shipper and driver processes.

  Weaknesses

  Rising oil prices push up freight rates and suppress demand for low-priced freight sources, pressuring 2Q transaction volume; the current take rate is around 2%, so further improvement still needs to be delivered.

  Comparison

  The valuation discount already reflects some regulatory and volume-growth uncertainty, but re-entering a more constructive stance requires evidence of easing headwinds and order recovery.

  Risks

  Further increases in oil prices, regulatory disruptions, weak demand for low-priced freight sources, overseas expansion execution, and the impact of small-loan business transformation.

• J&T

  A company discussed at the summit; the report did not provide a rating in the disclosed price list.

  Strengths

  Southeast Asia growth is expected at about 50%, cooperation with SF on overseas last-mile delivery is progressing smoothly, Latin America operations are driven mainly by Brazil and Mexico, and service timeliness and costs have improved relative to local competitors.

  Weaknesses

  There is still a brand premium gap in the China market, small customers are price-sensitive, and fuel cost pressure varies across Southeast Asian countries.

  Comparison

  Compared with China’s mature express market, J&T’s overseas markets have lower parcel penetration and greater growth potential, but also higher execution complexity.

  Risks

  Fuel prices, overseas localization, franchise model transitions, cross-regional service quality, and price competition.

• Yunda

  A company discussed at the summit, highlighting industry quality growth and price discipline.

  Strengths

  Service quality has improved, with fewer penalties and compensation payouts; April ASP rose 10% YoY; reverse parcels and partnerships with platforms such as Douyin may improve parcel volume and profitability.

  Weaknesses

  April parcel volume fell 4% YoY, and the company believes achieving 8% to 10% industry growth for the full year will be challenging.

  Comparison

  Yunda is more proactive in trimming ultra-low-price traffic, sacrificing short-term volume but improving pricing.

  Risks

  Impact from e-commerce tax policy, fuel costs, weaker-than-expected parcel volume recovery in 2H26, and regional differences in price pass-through.

• STO Express; YTO Express

  Used for comparison of April industry differentiation.

  Strengths

  STO parcel volume grew 14% YoY and ASP rose 15% YoY, while YTO maintained stable parcel volume growth and ASP rose 4% YoY.

  Weaknesses

  YTO parcel volume growth was only 1%, and overall industry parcel volume momentum remained moderate.

  Comparison

  STO performed best, benefiting from Danniao integration and share gains; YTO delivered relatively steady performance.

  Risks

  Slower industry parcel volume growth, changes in price discipline, cost pressure, and market share competition.

Key data

• April express delivery industry parcel volume16.84B, up 3.2% YoYParcel volume growth remained positive but moderate, indicating slowing demand growth.
• April express delivery industry revenueRmb128.91B, up 6.3% YoYRevenue growth outpaced parcel volume growth, reflecting improvement in pricing and mix.
• April express delivery industry ASPRmb7.65, up 3% YoYASP recovery is important evidence of industry price discipline and the effectiveness of anti-involution measures.
• April online retail growthup 2.3% YoYThis slowed significantly from 5.8% growth in March.
• April online physical goods GMVup 0.2% YoYThis decelerated sharply from 2.5% in March, marking the lowest monthly growth rate since December 2024.
• April online physical goods penetration rate25.7%, up 0.6 percentage points YoYPenetration continued to rise, but underlying demand momentum remained weak.
• April online home appliance salesdown 15% YoYThis worsened further from a 5% YoY decline in March, affected by a high base and reduced subsidy intensity.
• April online communication equipment salesup 6% YoYThis slowed markedly from 27% growth in March.
• ZTO parcel volume growth so far in 2QWithin the 10% to 13% guidance rangeBelow 1Q’s 13%, but still significantly faster than the industry average.
• ZTO reverse logistics capabilityPeak daily processing of about 10MM parcelsThe report believes this capability is difficult for competitors to replicate quickly and is a source of differentiated service quality.
• J&T Southeast Asia growth outlookAnnual growth rate expected at about 50%Per capita parcel volume in Southeast Asia is only about one-quarter of China’s, leaving substantial room for expansion.
• YMM full-year direct transaction volume guidance13% to 17%The target is mid-to-high single-digit to double-digit growth, but 2Q is pressured by oil prices and demand for low-priced freight sources.
• YMM medium-term take rate targetAt least 3%, versus around 2% currentlyImprovement in take rate is an important medium-term indicator of monetization capability.
• Yunda reverse parcel businessAbout 4MM orders, of which returns account for about 1.5MMReverse logistics and new partnerships with platforms such as Douyin could improve parcel volume and profitability.
• April divergence among major express companiesSTO parcel volume +14%, ASP +15%; YTO parcel volume +1%, ASP +4%; Yunda parcel volume -4%, ASP +10%; SF parcel volume -3%, ASP +5%Differences in volume and price performance among leaders reflect strategic choices and customer mix differences.
• Share price performance over the past monthJD Logistics -16%, YTO Express -15%, ZTO Express H shares -14%, ZTO Express U.S. shares -12%, FTA +6%Most of the sector underperformed, mainly reflecting market concerns over fuel costs and margin risks.
• Share price performance year to dateYTO Express +14%, STO Express +14%, JD Logistics +13%, ZTO Express H shares +7%, ZTO Express U.S. shares +6%; FTA -18%, J&T -14%, SF H shares -10%, SF A shares -9%Performance this year shows both recovery among leaders and ongoing structural pressure.

Impact & implications

For investors, policy discipline and ASP recovery in express delivery improve industry earnings visibility, benefiting companies with leading service quality, cost control, and network stability; however, slowing e-commerce demand reduces volume elasticity and puts pressure in 2Q on companies with greater exposure to categories such as electronics and home appliances. In the short term, the market remains sensitive to fuel costs, and valuation recovery will require continued improvement in data such as cost pass-through, 618 promotional parcel volumes, SF’s strategic reset, and YMM order trends.

Risks

• Rising fuel prices increase pressure on transportation and last-mile fulfillment costs, and insufficient cost pass-through would squeeze margins.
• There is uncertainty around the sustainability of anti-involution and price-discipline policies; if low-price competition intensifies again, ASP recovery could reverse.
• E-commerce demand has slowed significantly, especially in discretionary categories such as home appliances, communication devices, apparel, and daily necessities, which may weigh on 2Q GMV and logistics parcel volumes.
• The high base in 2025 and weaker subsidies in 2026 may continue to pressure online electronics category performance in May and June.
• Overseas expansion, franchise model transitions, and local market competition may affect growth delivery for companies such as J&T.
• Regulatory changes may continue to affect order trends, monetization capability, and valuation recovery for platform companies such as YMM.

What to watch

• Whether anti-involution policies and price discipline can continue through 2027.
• Whether express parcel volume, revenue, and ASP continue to improve in May, June, and during the 618 promotional period.
• How effectively each company passes through higher fuel costs to customers and franchisees.
• Whether 2Q e-commerce GMV and revenue are dragged down by the April online retail slowdown.
• The progress of SF’s e-commerce strategic reset and the turning point in market sentiment.
• Whether YMM order trends rebound, and whether regulatory pressure and weak demand for low-priced freight sources ease.
• Whether reverse logistics, service quality, and automation continue to be sources of differentiation for leading players.