Global LNG supply and shipping: Dark-mode Qatari tanker activity improves September exits but does not signal an operational recovery

Overview

This tracker assesses whether renewed Qatari LNG tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz represent a meaningful supply recovery. J.P. Morgan concludes that they largely reflect the release of previously loaded floating-storage cargoes, while constrained shipping access and uncertain transit safety keep underlying Qatari operations near 20% utilization and sustain winter-market tightness.

Core views

QatarEnergy appears to have increased use of vessels operating in “dark” mode while transiting the Strait of Hormuz and while idle within the Gulf. J.P. Morgan counted at least four dark transits during the past week, the busiest week for LNG transits since March, plus one vessel entering around September 20. The Al Ghashamiya exited around September 23 after entering the Gulf earlier in the month. September exits reached seven, compared with zero transits in August, and the cargoes were heading to or had delivered into Singapore, China, India and Pakistan. The report notes that no Qatari cargo has reached Europe since March. The institution cautions that the shipping pickup should not be read as a material improvement in production. QatarEnergy is still estimated to be operating near 20% utilization from loading data. Recent exiting ships were loaded much earlier and functioned as floating storage: Gaslog Skagen, which exited on September 26 en route to China, was last loaded at Ras Laffan on July 17, while Shandong Redwood was loaded in late June. Only one of the seven ships exiting in September was loaded that month. In J.P. Morgan's interpretation, the current movements are the next stage of an unusually prolonged supply chain rather than evidence of restored operating fundamentals. Shipping availability and safe passage through Hormuz remain the decisive bottlenecks. After the recent exits and only one entry during the week, the tracker counted 14 LNG vessels in the Gulf, 12 linked to QatarEnergy. Eight of those vessels had turned off their transponders, the highest proportion off radar in the firm's monitoring since the conflict began. Some may already have crossed the strait and may only become visible once their transponders are switched back on. Until broader transit conditions become clearer, J.P. Morgan expects Qatar to load and export at roughly the current 20% utilization rate. The report connects this constrained Qatari supply to a tight winter gas outlook. Escalation in the Middle East, the effective breakdown of the ceasefire and renewed Hormuz closure have pushed a Qatar restart into the Northern Hemisphere winter. J.P. Morgan sees a substantial price risk premium, particularly in 2027, owing to uncertainty over supply normalization, winter weather and Europe's low storage. Under normal weather, it judges EUR 70-80/MWh sufficient for Europe to outbid Asia for marginal spot LNG and encourage gas-to-coal switching. It revises its 4Q26 TTF forecast to EUR 75/MWh, expects EUR 65/MWh in 1Q27, and retains a roughly EUR 40/MWh summer-2027 forecast, below then-current futures pricing. The tracker also frames the current situation against the wider supply response. Alternative supply had offset almost two-thirds of lost Qatar/UAE volumes over the preceding four months, led by the US and North America, but much of the incremental LNG went to Asia because of regional price spreads. That left Europe with tighter physical balances, a weaker storage trajectory and rising weather sensitivity. J.P. Morgan argues that alternative-supply growth is moderating while Qatar's ramp-up takes time, leaving significant 4Q and winter risks. The report identifies shipping access, Qatar's operating ramp-up, European storage, winter weather and Asia-Europe spot price spreads as the variables governing how long tightness and price volatility persist.

Analysis framework

J.P. Morgan combines vessel-tracking observations, LNG loading data, seven-day moving averages and assumed liquefaction capacities to estimate export flows and utilization. It then links Hormuz transit availability, floating-storage inventories, regional cargo destinations, European storage needs and Asia-Europe price spreads to its gas-price forecasts and winter balance assessment.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisSupply-demand framework

  Global LNG supply-demand balance analysis

  The report compares lost Qatari and UAE supply with alternative production, cargo destinations, European storage requirements and demand adjustment to judge market tightness and price pressure.

• Industry AnalysisUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Transmission

  Shipping and liquefaction bottleneck transmission

  It treats vessel availability and safe Hormuz passage as constraints that prevent loaded cargoes from becoming delivered LNG supply, thereby transmitting logistics disruption into liquefaction utilization and market balances.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• QatarEnergy

  Primary LNG supply and shipping constraint monitored by the report

  Strengths

  Some previously loaded floating-storage cargoes are exiting Hormuz, and Kuwait demand had supported curtailed operations.

  Weaknesses

  Estimated utilization remains near 20%; shipping availability and safe Hormuz passage constrain exports.

  Comparison

  Recent activity is higher than August's zero transits but remains well below normal and does not constitute an operational recovery.

  Risks

  Persistent transit restrictions could prolong curtailed operations and delay supply normalization into winter.

Key data

• September Qatari LNG exits7 vesselsA material improvement from zero transits in August, but still below normal activity.
• Dark Hormuz transits in the past weekAt least 4The busiest week for LNG transits since March.
• Estimated QatarEnergy utilizationAround 20%Based on loading data; the report does not view recent shipments as evidence of a fundamental operational recovery.
• LNG vessels in the Gulf14, including 12 associated with QatarEnergyEight had transponders off, the highest off-radar proportion monitored since the conflict began.
• 4Q26 TTF forecastEUR 75/MWhRevised forecast reflecting Qatar normalization uncertainty, weather risk and low European storage.
• 1Q27 and summer 2027 TTF forecastsEUR 65/MWh and around EUR 40/MWhThe latter is unchanged and described as well below then-current futures pricing.

Impact & implications

J.P. Morgan argues that the rise in observed tanker exits eases neither the fundamental production constraint nor the global supply tightness because the cargoes mostly came from earlier floating storage. Continued restricted Hormuz access would keep Qatar's exports near current levels, leaving Europe dependent on prices to compete with Asia for marginal LNG and to induce gas-to-coal switching.

Risks

• Safe passage and shipping availability through the Strait of Hormuz may remain constrained, preventing a material improvement in Qatari LNG exports.
• A prolonged disruption could keep Qatar near curtailed utilization and tighten global LNG balances into the Northern Hemisphere winter.
• Low European storage, winter weather uncertainty and continued Asia-bound US LNG cargoes could sustain elevated prices and volatility.

What to watch

• The number and nature of LNG transits, entries and exits through the Strait of Hormuz, including vessels operating with transponders off.
• QatarEnergy loading levels and implied liquefaction utilization versus the current estimate of around 20%.
• The availability of ballast vessels and whether floating-storage cargoes can continue to exit the Gulf.
• European storage trends, winter weather and Asia-Europe spot price spreads that determine marginal LNG cargo destinations.