Qatar LNG restoration slows, while Hormuz transit still constrains actual shipments

Overview

This report is JPMorgan’s weekly tracking of global LNG supply and shipping, focusing on Qatar’s restoration, transit through the Strait of Hormuz, LNG shipping rates, regional import/export flows, and new supply projects for 2025-2027. The report notes that QatarEnergy’s operations remain broadly stable, but the pace of restoration has slowed, with about 4 LNG cargoes loaded this week, corresponding to a 7-day moving average utilization rate of about 20%, below roughly 25% in the previous week. Assuming the Strait of Hormuz remains open, JPMorgan expects Qatar to reach normal full utilization excluding the two damaged trains in August.

Core views

The report’s core views include: first, Qatar LNG loadings are improving, but actual outbound shipments remain constrained by transit through Hormuz, with many loaded vessels still stranded in the Gulf. Second, global LNG shipping is normalizing, and short-term freight rates have eased, but one-year charter rates have edged higher, indicating the market is still pricing structural uncertainty. Third, Europe still needs more spot LNG to repair its inventory trajectory; while exports from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Europe and the Mediterranean have increased, they remain insufficient to eliminate Europe’s storage refill pressure. Fourth, the main swing factors in the 2026-2027 supply outlook are Qatar’s restoration and the ramp-up of Golden Pass, with volatility in the latter potentially affecting realization of incremental supply in 2026 and 2027.

Analysis framework

The report primarily assesses the global LNG supply-demand balance through vessel tracking, 7-day moving average loading and departure data, regional LNG import/export changes, the JKM/TTF spread, and shipping costs. At the project level, the report incorporates projects such as Plaquemines, LNG Canada, Corpus Christi LNG Stage 3, Arctic LNG 2, and Golden Pass into its 2025-2027 supply breakdown, and measures progress in incremental supply realization using weekly loadings, utilization rates, and startup schedules.

Methodology notes

• Supply Tracking7-day moving average of loadings and Hormuz departures

  Estimate Qatar LNG utilization and shippable volumes using actual loading and departure data

  The report explicitly states that Qatar utilization is based on loading data, while Hormuz departure data include actual transit volumes and average Qatar cargo volumes, helping distinguish production recovery from volumes that can actually be delivered to the global market.

• Pricing and ShippingJKM/TTF spread and freight differential netback framework

  Compare the relative economics of shipping U.S. Gulf Coast LNG to Europe or Asia

  Using the prompt JKM/TTF spread of about +$1.3/MMBtu together with shipping cost differentials, the report concludes that netbacks to Europe and Asia are broadly similar, with a slight preference for Europe.

• Project Supply Breakdown2025-2027 incremental LNG project supply bridge

  Break down global LNG supply growth by project, country, capacity, and annual output

  The report lists the capacity, output, and year-over-year increments of projects starting up in 2025, 2026, and 2027, and combines them with existing trains in Qatar, the UAE, and other global regions to form the global supply outlook.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• European natural gas and TTF

  Europe needs more spot LNG to close the gap in its inventory trajectory, and insufficient LNG imports would support TTF prices.

  Strengths

  U.S. Gulf Coast LNG exports to Europe and the Mediterranean have increased to about 280 Mcm/day, and netbacks slightly favor Europe.

  Weaknesses

  The gap in Europe’s inventory trajectory versus last year continues to widen, and the required import increment has not yet fully materialized.

  Comparison

  Compared with Asia, the prompt JKM/TTF spread is about +$1.3/MMBtu, and after freight Europe and Asia netbacks are close.

  Risks

  If Asian summer demand strengthens or U.S. supply shifts back toward Asia, Europe’s storage refill pressure could intensify.

• Qatar LNG supply

  The pace of Qatar’s restoration is the core variable in the recovery of global LNG supply.

  Strengths

  QatarEnergy’s operations are broadly stable, with about 4 LNG cargoes loaded this week; if Hormuz remains open, the report expects normal full utilization excluding damaged trains to be reached by August.

  Weaknesses

  The 7-day moving average utilization rate is about 20%, below about 25% last week, and many loaded vessels remain stranded in the Gulf.

  Comparison

  The report table shows output from Qatar’s existing 14 trains is expected to be 60.2 Bcm in 2026, significantly below 112.6 Bcm in 2025.

  Risks

  Transit through Hormuz, security constraints, the two damaged trains, and the pace of restoration ramp-up could all delay supply recovery.

• LNG shipping rates

  Freight rates reflect vessel availability, regional arbitrage, and strait transit risks.

  Strengths

  Spot freight rates both west and east of Suez fell from the prior week, showing continued normalization in global LNG shipping.

  Weaknesses

  One-year charter rates rose from $49,000/day to $51,000/day, indicating mid-term uncertainty remains.

  Comparison

  Rates west of Suez fell from $77,000/day to $67,000/day, while east of Suez they declined from $55,000/day to $53,000/day.

  Risks

  If Hormuz tightens again or vessel congestion worsens, short-term freight rates could rise again.

• U.S. LNG exports

  U.S. Gulf Coast supply is the marginal balancing resource between Europe and Asia.

  Strengths

  U.S. LNG loadings rose by 0.8 Bcm week over week, while exports from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Europe and the Mediterranean increased to about 280 Mcm/day this week.

  Weaknesses

  Destination choice is highly dependent on the JKM/TTF spread and freight, so flows may shift rapidly.

  Comparison

  Europe and the Mediterranean account for about 60% of U.S. Gulf Coast LNG exports.

  Risks

  If Asian netbacks become more favorable than Europe again, more U.S. spot cargoes may shift to Asia, weakening Europe’s storage refill.

• Golden Pass

  Golden Pass is a key uncertainty for the realization of incremental LNG supply in 2026-2027.

  Strengths

  One cargo was loaded this week after none in the prior week; feedgas briefly reached 0.6 Bcf/day early in the week.

  Weaknesses

  Feedgas flows were highly volatile and later fell to near zero during the week.

  Comparison

  The report views Golden Pass, alongside Qatar’s restoration, as the main unknown in the global LNG supply outlook.

  Risks

  It could put at risk up to 5 Bcm of supply growth in 2026 and another 7 Bcm in 2027.

Key data

• Qatar LNG loadings this weekabout 4 cargoesCorresponding to a 7-day moving average utilization rate of about 20%, below the estimated roughly 25% last week.
• Timing for Qatar normal full utilizationexpected August 2026Assumes the Strait of Hormuz remains open, and normal full utilization excludes the two damaged trains.
• Latest LNG departure from Hormuz2026-06-25The report says the last LNG vessel left the strait on June 25; the last delivery to Kuwait was June 21, and to the UAE June 14.
• Number of LNG vessels in the Strait of Hormuz16 vesselsAbove 11 a week earlier, indicating a gradual improvement in vessel availability.
• LNG freight rate west of Suez$67,000/dayVersus $77,000/day the prior week.
• LNG freight rate east of Suez$53,000/dayVersus $55,000/day the prior week.
• One-year LNG charter rate assessment$51,000/dayVersus $49,000/day the prior week; short-term rates declined while term charter rates edged higher.
• Prompt JKM/TTF spread+$1.3/MMBtuAfter accounting for freight differentials, netbacks are broadly similar, with Europe slightly more attractive.
• U.S. Gulf Coast LNG exports to Europe/Mediterraneanabout 280 Mcm/dayUp from about 235 Mcm/day the prior week, accounting for about 60% of U.S. Gulf Coast LNG exports.
• Global LNG delivery change from June 22 to 28+0.3 Bcm week over weekAsia increased by 0.5 Bcm, Latin America by 0.3 Bcm, while Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean each fell by 0.1 Bcm.
• Main import increases in AsiaIndia +0.3 Bcm, China +0.2 BcmBoth are up about 0.4 Bcm on an annualized basis.
• Global weekly LNG loading change+1.1 Bcm week over weekThe U.S. increased by 0.8 Bcm, Australia by 0.5 Bcm, while Africa declined by 0.2 Bcm.
• Plaquemines weekly loading change+0.5 BcmA significant rebound this week after exports fell in the prior week.
• CCL 3 weekly loadings0.7 BcmUp 0.1 Bcm week over week.
• LNG Canada loadings and utilization4 cargoes, about 90% utilizationBased on a 4-week rolling average, versus 3 cargoes the prior week.
• Arctic LNG 2 loadings and utilization2 cargoes, about 30% utilizationThere were no loadings the prior week.
• Golden Pass supply riskup to 5 Bcm in 2026 and another 7 Bcm in 2027The report says Golden Pass remains a major unknown in the global LNG supply outlook.
• Global LNG total supply outlook598.9 Bcm in 2025, 600.1 Bcm in 2026, 660.1 Bcm in 2027The table shows year-over-year growth of only 1.2 Bcm in 2026 and 60.0 Bcm in 2027.
• Output outlook for Qatar’s existing 14 trains112.6 Bcm in 2025, 60.2 Bcm in 2026, 87.3 Bcm in 2027Corresponding to a year-over-year decline of 52.4 Bcm in 2026 and a rebound of 27.0 Bcm in 2027.

Impact & implications

The report’s main market implication is that although Qatar’s restoration continues to advance, a gap remains between loading utilization and Hormuz departures, so the recovery in globally available LNG supply is still insufficient in the near term. In Europe, the inventory trajectory continues to lag last year, and although cargo flows from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Europe and the Mediterranean have increased, the report believes the required import increment has not fully emerged, leaving upward support for European natural gas prices in 3Q26. On the supply side, Qatar’s restoration, the stability of Golden Pass startup, and ramp-ups of new projects determine the flexibility of the global LNG balance in 2026-2027; on the shipping side, the decline in short-term freight rates reflects normalization in shipping, but geopolitics and vessel availability still constrain actual flows.

Risks

• Continued constraints or renewed deterioration in transit through the Strait of Hormuz, preventing loaded LNG from reaching the global market.
• Qatar restoration utilization falling short of expectations, or the two damaged trains taking longer to recover.
• Continued volatility in Golden Pass feedgas and loadings, affecting realization of incremental supply in 2026-2027.
• Insufficient incremental LNG imports into Europe, causing the inventory trajectory to continue lagging and increasing 3Q26 price volatility.
• Stronger Asian summer demand could again attract U.S. spot LNG cargoes, weakening Europe’s storage refill.
• If strike risk at Australian LNG projects escalates, global supply could tighten further.
• Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, security issues, and port operating constraints could alter vessel transit and loading rhythms.

What to watch

• Whether Qatar’s number of loaded cargoes and 7-day moving average utilization rate continue to rise from about 20% in coming weeks.
• The actual departure frequency of LNG vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, and whether the number of vessels in the strait continues to increase.
• Changes in the allocation of U.S. Gulf Coast LNG exports among Europe, the Mediterranean, Asia, and other regions.
• The impact of changes in the JKM/TTF spread and freight rates west and east of Suez on destination netbacks.
• Whether Europe’s storage injection pace is sufficient to narrow the gap relative to last year and target levels.
• Whether Golden Pass feedgas flows, weekly loadings, and capacity utilization stabilize.
• The ramp-up progress of new projects such as Plaquemines, CCL 3, LNG Canada, and Arctic LNG 2.
• Australian strike risk and its impact on global LNG supply expectations.