Qatar LNG utilization continues to decline, and the JKM/TTF spread is beginning to show signs of tightening

Overview

This report is JPMorgan’s weekly global LNG supply and shipping tracker, focusing on LNG transit through the Strait of Hormuz, Qatar LNG loadings and liquefaction capacity utilization, JKM/TTF relative price signals, USGC LNG export destinations, and the marginal contribution of new supply projects. The report title emphasizes that Qatar utilization slips further and points out that the JKM/TTF spread shows first signs of tightening.

Core views

The core view of the report is that LNG transit through the Strait of Hormuz has not yet resumed, and Qatar has been forced to slow loadings because of fewer available ballast vessels and limited demand within the Gulf, causing liquefaction capacity utilization to continue falling. At the same time, rising TTF prices and a narrowing JKM/TTF spread have improved European netbacks, but spot LNG physical flows have not yet significantly shifted toward Europe. If uncertainty around Qatar winter supply persists, the market will need a higher risk premium to reflect potential supply shortfalls, low European inventories, and price volatility.

Analysis framework

The report uses Bloomberg ship-tracking data to monitor entries and exits through the Strait of Hormuz, Ras Laffan loadings, the number of LNG vessels within the Gulf, and transit on major shipping routes. It combines this with JKM/TTF netbacks, USGC LNG export destinations, and project-level exports and capacity utilization to assess the rebalancing of global LNG supply and demand.

Methodology notes

• Shipping and loading trackingBloomberg ship-tracking data

  Estimate LNG exports and supply availability through vessel positions, loading dates, and shipping-route transit records.

  The report uses observed Strait of Hormuz crossings, Ras Laffan loadings, and the number of vessels in the Gulf to judge whether Qatar LNG ramp-up is being constrained.

• Price netback analysisJKM/TTF netback comparison

  Compare netbacks for USGC-origin cargoes delivered to Asia or Europe to assess marginal LNG flow incentives.

  The report notes that after TTF moved higher, European netbacks turned more favorable, but this price signal has not yet materially changed the physical export distribution of USGC LNG.

• Supply project trackingweekly exports and capacity utilisation tracker

  Track weekly exports, capacity utilization, and year-over-year marginal supply contribution by project.

  The report tracks projects such as LNG Canada, Arctic LNG 2, Plaquemines, CCL 3, and Golden Pass to assess whether alternative supply can offset the Middle East LNG shortfall.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• TTF natural gas

  Supported by Qatar supply risk and European inventory constraints

  Strengths

  Improved European netbacks, low inventories, and winter supply risk could lift the risk premium.

  Weaknesses

  If Asian demand slows or alternative supply increases, upside for prices may be limited.

  Comparison

  The report notes that after TTF moved higher, its discount relative to JKM narrowed, making European destination netbacks more attractive.

  Risks

  A faster-than-expected recovery in Qatar supply, weaker Asian demand, or more alternative LNG supply could pressure prices lower.

• JKM LNG

  Reflects Asian spot LNG demand and the attractiveness of USGC cargoes

  Strengths

  Previously, Asia was more attractive for USGC spot cargoes, supporting Asian pull.

  Weaknesses

  At current price levels, Asian demand may begin to slow, and the JKM/TTF spread has already shown signs of narrowing.

  Comparison

  Its premium over TTF is declining, and the report believes this relationship change, though possibly temporary, is worth watching.

  Risks

  Continued improvement in European netbacks could draw more USGC LNG cargoes away.

• Qatar LNG supply

  Core variable in global LNG supply risk

  Strengths

  It remains a key low-cost source of LNG supply over the long term.

  Weaknesses

  Stalled Hormuz transit, insufficient ballast vessels, and lower loadings have reduced utilization to only about 13%.

  Comparison

  The current ramp-up is clearly below a normalization scenario and has become the core source of winter supply risk premium.

  Risks

  If disruptions persist, further production cuts or shutdowns may occur, pushing up winter price volatility.

• USGC LNG exports

  Marginal supply source for global LNG rebalancing

  Strengths

  Can switch between Asia and Europe and is an important alternative source to Middle East supply.

  Weaknesses

  Despite improved European netbacks, Europe’s share remains around 50% and has not yet increased materially.

  Comparison

  Asia previously attracted more USGC cargoes because of the JKM premium, while the current TTF improvement may change marginal flow direction.

  Risks

  Freight, insurance, port costs, and regional price volatility will affect actual flow direction.

Key data

• Last observed LNG export through the Strait of Hormuz2026-07-12Based on Bloomberg ship-tracking data.
• Last confirmed LNG entry through the Strait of Hormuz2026-07-10The report says no new Hormuz transit was confirmed over the past week.
• Estimated Ras Laffan loadings last week2 cargoesBelow the previous loading level of about 5 cargoes.
• Qatar liquefaction capacity utilization约 13%7-day moving average based on loading data; about 22% in the prior week and about 30% two weeks earlier.
• LNG vessels in the Persian Gulf23 vesselsThe report says 23 LNG vessels were still counted in the Gulf.
• TTF price signal超过 60 EUR/MWhThe report says that after TTF rose above this level last week, the JKM/TTF spread began to narrow.
• Europe share of USGC LNG exports约 50%Despite improved European netbacks, physical flows have not yet seen a major change.
• LNG Canada utilization约 70%On a four-week moving average basis, down from about 90% several weeks earlier.
• Year-over-year marginal supply from LNG Canada约 20 Mcm/dayAs it reached the first anniversary of its first cargo, year-over-year marginal supply has fallen from about 40 Mcm/day year to date.
• Marginal contribution from Arctic LNG 2接近 10 Mcm/dayBelow about 20 Mcm/day so far this summer.

Impact & implications

For the European natural gas market, constrained Qatar supply and winter uncertainty have raised the TTF risk premium and inventory vulnerability. For the Asian market, if current price levels begin to suppress demand, the narrowing JKM/TTF spread could alter marginal demand and cargo flows, although short-term physical flows have not yet clearly shifted. For LNG shipping, stalled Hormuz transit and declining ballast-vessel availability are the direct constraints on slower Qatar loadings.

Risks

• Continued stagnation in LNG transit through the Strait of Hormuz, limiting Qatar LNG loadings and exports.
• A reduction in available ballast vessels in Qatar may force a further slowdown in loadings.
• Uncertainty around Qatar winter supply could lead to a higher TTF risk premium, price spikes, and volatility.
• European natural gas inventories are relatively low; if LNG inflows are insufficient, the pressure to rebuild stocks before winter will intensify.
• Asian demand may slow under high prices, but if weather or regional demand is stronger than expected, Asia may still compete with Europe for cargoes.
• The year-over-year marginal contribution from alternative supply projects is slowing, weakening their ability to offset the Middle East shortfall.

What to watch

• Whether LNG vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz resumes in both directions.
• Weekly Ras Laffan loading volumes and Qatar liquefaction capacity 7-day moving average utilization.
• The number of LNG vessels in the Persian Gulf and ballast-vessel availability.
• Changes in the JKM/TTF spread and European and Asian netbacks for USGC-origin cargoes.
• Whether Europe’s destination share of USGC LNG exports rises from about 50%.
• The pace of European inventory injections and progress toward pre-winter inventory targets.
• Weekly exports and utilization of new projects such as LNG Canada, Arctic LNG 2, Plaquemines, CCL 3, and Golden Pass.