Qatari LNG production recovery slows, Strait of Hormuz exports remain constrained

Overview

This report is JPMorgan’s weekly global LNG supply and shipping tracker, focusing on Qatari LNG production recovery, Strait of Hormuz transit, global LNG shipping rates, regional import/export flows, and new liquefaction capacity additions from 2025 to 2027. The core conclusion is that Qatari production recovery is still progressing but slowing at the margin, transport recovery through the strait remains insufficient, and Europe’s storage refill pressure still requires more spot LNG inflows.

Core views

The report believes QatarEnergy’s operations are broadly stable at present, but only 4 LNG cargoes were estimated to have been loaded this week, with seven-day average utilization at around 20%, below about 25% in the previous week. Assuming the Strait of Hormuz remains open, JPMorgan expects Qatar to reach normal full-load levels excluding the two damaged production lines by August, broadly in line with prior forecasts. Meanwhile, the gap in Europe’s inventory trajectory versus last year continues to widen, and the needed increase in LNG imports has not yet emerged, so the 3Q26 price outlook remains strong.

Analysis framework

The report primarily relies on vessel tracking, LNG loading and delivery data, weekly changes in regional imports and exports, shipping rates, JKM/TTF spreads, and ramp-up of new project capacity, combined with seven-day moving averages, week-over-week, and year-over-year changes to assess supply recovery, transportation bottlenecks, and regional demand competition.

Methodology notes

• commodity_supply_trackingSeven-day moving average tracking of LNG loadings and transit

  Measure the progress of Qatari LNG production recovery using actual loadings, Strait of Hormuz exports, and vessel positions.

  The report explains that Qatari utilization is based on loading data, while Strait of Hormuz exports are based on observed transit counts and average Qatari cargo size, with seven-day moving averages used to smooth short-term volatility.

• regional_netback_analysisJKM/TTF spread and destination netback comparison

  Assess the economics of US LNG cargo flows to Europe or Asia through front-month JKM versus TTF spreads and differences in shipping costs.

  The report notes that the front-month JKM/TTF spread is about +$1.3/MMBtu. After accounting for shipping cost differentials, netbacks are broadly similar or slightly favor Europe, leading to increased USGC exports to Europe and the Mediterranean.

• supply_project_decompositionBreakdown of new LNG supply projects in 2025-2027

  Break down global LNG supply increments by project, country, start-up timing, and capacity.

  The report’s table lists output and year-over-year increments for projects such as Plaquemines, LNG Canada, Corpus Christi Stage 3, Arctic LNG 2, Golden Pass, and CP2 from 2025 to 2027, to assess supply volatility and medium-term supply elasticity.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• LNG spot and global natural gas prices

  Directly affected by supply-demand balance and regional arbitrage

  Strengths

  Europe’s storage refill demand, uncertainty around Qatari production recovery, and delay risks for new projects support prices.

  Weaknesses

  Increased loadings from new supply projects in the US, Canada, Australia, and elsewhere can cushion Middle East supply disruptions.

  Comparison

  The report says the needed increase in LNG imports for Europe has not yet materialized, reinforcing a bullish 3Q26 price view.

  Risks

  Rapid Qatari recovery, weaker Asian demand, or smooth ramp-up of new projects could pressure prices.

• European TTF natural gas

  Highly correlated with Europe’s inventory refill and USGC cargo flows

  Strengths

  The gap in Europe’s inventory trajectory versus last year is widening, requiring higher LNG imports.

  Weaknesses

  Although USGC exports to Europe have recovered to about 280 Mcm/day, the absolute volume is still insufficient to fully offset inventory pressure.

  Comparison

  The front-month JKM/TTF spread is about +$1.3/MMBtu, and after shipping costs Europe’s netback is slightly attractive.

  Risks

  If the Asian price premium widens, US spot cargoes may pivot back to Asia.

• LNG shipping

  Affected by Strait of Hormuz transit, vessel availability, and recovery of regional routes

  Strengths

  The number of LNG vessels in the strait increased from 11 to 16, indicating improved vessel availability.

  Weaknesses

  Most already loaded vessels may still be stranded in the Gulf, and Strait of Hormuz exports remain limited.

  Comparison

  Rates west of Suez fell from $77,000/day to $67,000/day, and east of Suez from $55,000/day to $53,000/day.

  Risks

  Geopolitical escalation, renewed restrictions in the strait, or insurance and safety constraints on vessels could push rates higher and affect deliveries.

• Qatari LNG supply

  A key variable in the recovery of global LNG supply

  Strengths

  Assuming the strait remains open, the report expects normal full-load levels excluding the two damaged production lines by August.

  Weaknesses

  Current seven-day average utilization is only about 20%, below around 25% last week, and transit restrictions are limiting cargo releases.

  Comparison

  The report compares current progress with prior recovery forecasts and believes it is still broadly in line with the existing path.

  Risks

  Repairs to damaged production lines, upstream production, port operations, safety, and strategic constraints could all delay recovery.

• Golden Pass and new LNG projects

  Affects the elasticity of global incremental supply in 2026-2027

  Strengths

  Plaquemines, CCL3, LNG Canada, and Arctic LNG 2 all showed improved loadings this week, partially offsetting supply gaps.

  Weaknesses

  Golden Pass feedgas has been volatile, rising to 0.6 Bcf/day during the week before falling close to zero, leaving project timing uncertain.

  Comparison

  The table shows combined output from projects is expected to rise from 32.0 Bcm to 114.5 Bcm from 2025 to 2027.

  Risks

  Delays at Golden Pass could put at risk about 5 Bcm of supply growth in 2026 and about 7 Bcm in 2027.

Key data

• Current Qatari LNG utilizationabout 20%Based on the seven-day moving average of loading data, below about 25% last week.
• Qatari LNG loadings this week4 cargoesThe report estimates Qatar Energy loaded 4 LNG cargoes this week.
• Qatari normalization to full load timingAugust 2026Assuming the Strait of Hormuz remains open and excluding the two damaged production lines.
• Number of LNG vessels in the strait16 vesselsVersus 11 a week ago, indicating slowly improving vessel availability.
• Last LNG vessel exited Hormuz2026-06-25The report says transit through Hormuz remained limited afterward.
• LNG shipping rate west of Suez$67,000/dayVersus $77,000/day in the previous week.
• LNG shipping rate east of Suez$53,000/dayVersus $55,000/day in the previous week.
• One-year charter rate assessment$51,000/dayVersus $49,000/day in the previous week, a slight increase.
• Front-month JKM/TTF spread+$1.3/MMBtuThe report says the spread is broadly stable, and after shipping costs netbacks are similar or slightly favor Europe.
• USGC to Europe/Mediterranean LNG exportsabout 280 Mcm/dayAbove about 235 Mcm/day in the previous week, accounting for about 60% of total USGC exports.
• Change in LNG deliveries from June 22 to 28+0.3 Bcm WoWAsia increased by 0.5 Bcm WoW, Latin America increased by 0.3 Bcm WoW, while Europe and the East Mediterranean each declined by 0.1 Bcm.
• Weekly change in LNG loadings+1.1 Bcm WoWMainly driven by US growth of 0.8 Bcm WoW and Australia growth of 0.5 Bcm WoW.
• Golden Pass supply riskabout 5 Bcm in 2026, about 7 Bcm in 2027The report says Golden Pass is the main unknown in the global LNG supply outlook aside from Qatari production recovery.
• Forecast global LNG supply in 2027660.1 BcmThe table shows 598.9 Bcm in 2025, 600.1 Bcm in 2026, and a year-over-year increase of 60.0 Bcm in 2027.

Impact & implications

If Qatari production recovery continues to slow or transit recovery through Hormuz remains insufficient, Europe may need to compete with Asia for more spot LNG during the storage refill season, potentially supporting TTF and global LNG prices. If new projects such as Golden Pass progress more slowly than expected, incremental supply in 2026-2027 could face downside revisions; conversely, if Qatari production recovery is faster than expected or the strait normalizes smoothly, summer supply-demand tightness and upward price pressure may ease.

Risks

• Transit through the Strait of Hormuz has not been fully shut but remains constrained, which may continue to suppress actual Middle East LNG exports.
• There is uncertainty around the pace of Qatari production recovery and the “Day 0” starting point, leading to significant potential error in summer supply forecasts.
• Volatility in Golden Pass feedgas and loadings creates downside risk to new supply in 2026-2027.
• If Europe’s inventory refill falls short of target, higher prices may be needed to trigger demand destruction or attract more LNG.
• If Asian summer cooling demand strengthens, it may again widen the JKM premium and divert US spot LNG.
• Although the risk of Australian LNG strikes is not the main focus of this issue, if it occurs it could further disrupt global supply.

What to watch

• Qatari LNG loading volumes, seven-day moving average utilization, and whether normalization can be reached by August.
• The number of LNG vessel transits into and out of the Strait of Hormuz, the number of vessels in the strait, and whether already loaded vessels resume departure.
• The share of USGC cargo flows to Europe versus Asia, and changes in netbacks after adjusting the JKM/TTF spread for shipping costs.
• The pace of European inventory injections and the gap versus the same period last year and policy targets.
• Golden Pass feedgas flows, loading cadence, and stability of Train 1 start-up.
• Weekly loadings and utilization at new projects such as Plaquemines, CCL3, LNG Canada, and Arctic LNG 2.