Institutional Research

Conference feedback highlights Khoemacau’s large copper-growth runway, improving Kinsevere scale and costs, and the prospect that Las Bambas distributions could restore MMG’s ability to pay dividends. Morgan Stanley’s HK$11.70 target price implies 35% upside from HK$8.64.

• Khoemacau copper concentrate production is expected to rise from 50–60kt currently to 130kt by 1H28 and at least 200kt by 2030.
• Khoemacau Phase II requires US$900m of capex, while Phase III studies are under way.
• Exploration since the March 2024 acquisition added about 1.4Mt of contained copper and 90Moz of silver resources.
• Kinsevere’s 80kt expansion, improved grid-power availability and planned battery and acid capacity are intended to improve utilization and lower unit costs.
• Further Las Bambas distributions could eliminate roughly US$500m of remaining accumulated losses by year-end and permit MMG to resume dividends.

Barclays forecasts FY27 S&P 500 EPS of $414, up 13.4% year on year, after an extraordinary estimated 31% rise in FY26. The report argues that AI-related investment, memory pricing and broader sector revisions should keep earnings momentum durable despite deceleration.

• FY27 S&P 500 EPS estimate was raised to $414 from $389.
• FY26 EPS estimate was raised to $365 from $337, implying 31% year-on-year growth.
• Barclays forecasts 25% FY27 EPS growth for mega-cap technology and the wider technology ecosystem.
• External financing could account for more than 20% of AI industry capex in 2027.
• Earnings growth, margins and revision breadth are improving across many non-technology sectors.

Huawei unveiled a Near-Packaged Optics architecture for its Ascend 960 SuperPoD AI infrastructure. Morgan Stanley highlights its higher interface bandwidth, lower latency and lower power use, alongside a rapid progression from discrete optics to LPO and now NPO.

• Huawei introduced a 7.2 Tbps NPO optical engine with 36 channels at 200 Gbps per lane.
• The reported NPO engine exceeds the 6.4 Tbps, 32-lane interfaces under development by groups such as the OIF.
• Huawei cited 10 ns communication latency and lower power consumption.
• The SuperPoD can scale to 4,096 NPU cards, with up to 8 Exaflops of FP8 computing power and 1 PB of unified HBM.
• Huawei launched the OPEN NPO initiative and an MSA with China Mobile Research Institute, JD Cloud and more than 20 domestic partners.

AU26 strengthened Goldman Sachs’ confidence in Autodesk’s strategic direction, including its expanded Autodesk Assistant and MaintainX-led Operations platform. The firm maintains a $265 12-month target and Neutral rating because customer deployment, recurring usage and commercial returns remain early.

• The expanded Autodesk Assistant is planned to roll out in 2027 and is intended to coordinate work across products, projects, models and customer-built tools.
• Goldman Sachs views the AI architecture as a credible defense against disruption, but broad productivity gains remain limited by manual validation.
• MaintainX is the cornerstone of an emerging Operations platform, acquired for $3.6 billion, with execution and return hurdles still material.
• The $265 target is based on a 25x multiple of SNTM GAAP EPS, unchanged and broadly in line with large-cap software and vertical peers.

Rising FX volatility and energy-price pressure have improved the USD’s tactical ranking, prompting a moderate long in the Fast T.E.A.M. portfolio. However, the report finds no US growth-exceptionalism support: the USD growth weight is -40%, while EUR and GBP rank strongly.

• The T.E.A.M. framework has turned moderately long USD as implied volatility rose from July lows and high energy prices favor less-cyclical exporters.
• The USD carries a -40% weight in the growth framework; 18% of currencies show significant positive momentum versus 11% negative.
• Real carry has outperformed risk-adjusted carry, returning 13% globally and 16% in EM year-to-date versus 7% and 7%, respectively.
• The portfolio increased energy exposure while reducing pro-cyclical risk, retaining substantial LatAm carry exposure and favoring IDR, NOK and CAD.

Bernstein argues that renewable development is a low-barrier business, but grid connectivity is the decisive medium-term constraint. It favors differentiated access to infrastructure and capital-allocation flexibility over temporary BESS advantages.

• Grid connections take about three years versus roughly one year to build a solar plant, making evacuation capacity the key bottleneck.
• NTPC Green has the largest volume of evacuation capacity scheduled by the end of CY28, while much of Adani Green’s capacity is due from 2029.
• Adani and Reliance are the only groups identified with large land banks; NTPC Green’s state MoUs have not yet become firm land allocations.
• BESS first-mover economics are attractive near term but are unlikely to create a durable moat as capacity expands.
• Integrated operators such as JSW Energy and Tata Power can allocate capital across the electricity value chain rather than compete solely in renewable auctions.

Leaderdrive is broadening its humanoid-robot customer pipeline and expects rapid component growth, but Deutsche Bank cuts earnings estimates and its target price to RMB300 as production ramp-up costs and aggressive peer capacity additions pressure profitability and pricing.

• Target price reduced to RMB300 from RMB370; Hold reiterated.
• 2026E/27E/28E net-profit estimates cut by 18%/18%/19%.
• 2Q26 revenue rose 49% quarter-on-quarter to RMB208mn, but year-on-year growth slowed to 36% and gross margin fell to 31%.
• Combined capacity of four major Chinese reducer makers is projected to rise from about 1.5mn units in 2025 to more than 4mn in 2026E and about 6.5mn in 2027E.
• Humanoid-related revenue is forecast to reach RMB300mn in 2026E, exceeding 30% of group revenue.

Morgan Stanley's conference takeaways point to flat FY26 sales and net profit, with overseas HVAC growth, supply-chain optimization and domestic white-goods recovery expected to support second-half performance. The report retains an Equal-weight rating and Rmb23.00 A-share target price.

• FY26 sales and net profit are targeted to be broadly flat year on year, with the profit target including a tax-refund benefit.
• Second-half HVAC growth is expected to be led by overseas markets while domestic sales stay flat.
• US EBIT margin is targeted to recover from 5% to 7% over the next two to three years.
• Copper inflation remains a pressure on air-conditioner profitability despite procurement locking, hedging and supply-chain savings.

Morgan Stanley highlights management's unchanged 2026 production guidance of 513mnt and its view that output can catch up in the second half. Xinjiang coal shipments are expected to have limited near-term impact because of transport constraints and high rail costs.

• 2026 production guidance remains 513mnt despite lower 1H26 volume.
• Management expects output recovery in 2H26, particularly in Inner Mongolia.
• Xinjiang-to-east-coast transport costs are about Rmb600/t; meaningful shipments require coal prices sustained above Rmb860/t.
• Coal-to-gas is viewed as the more likely coal-chemicals expansion area.
• Morgan Stanley's HK$48.30 target implies 7% upside versus HK$45.24.

The report’s base case is a rollover of the trade and rare-earths truce around the November 10 expiry, with limited market impact because expectations are already low. AI rivalry remains on a separate escalation track, supporting longer-term themes in AI sovereignty, semiconductor localization and economic security.

• The summit is framed as a test of whether the existing trade truce can survive targeted escalation beyond November 10.
• Morgan Stanley expects limited, transactional deliverables rather than a grand agreement.
• AI policy competition is likely to deepen market bifurcation even if the broader trade outcome is constructive.
• China equities still face macro, regulatory and liquidity headwinds despite a likely truce extension.
• Economic Security & Reindustrialization and AI Sovereignty & Semi Localization rank sixth and seventh in Morgan Stanley’s Asia-Pacific thematic ranking.