Institutional Research

JPMorgan finds that iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max delivery lead times expanded sharply after initial pre-orders, moderating concerns created by weaker first-week readings. The United States and Germany are modestly ahead of last year, while China remains below the prior-year level despite improvement.

• Global average lead times reached 19 days for iPhone 18 Pro and 26 days for Pro Max, versus 7 and 19 days in Week 1.
• The 18 Pro and Pro Max extended by 12 and 7 days over four post-order days, compared with 5 and 2 days for the iPhone 17 equivalents last year.
• JPMorgan interprets the change as demand absorbing a larger initial allocation to the premium-only lineup rather than evidence of weaker demand.
• China remains the largest year-on-year shortfall: 25 and 29 days for the Pro and Pro Max versus 32 days each last year.
• Color-level delivery-window dispersion has disappeared across all tracked markets.

Marketing feedback from Kuala Lumpur and Singapore focused on humanoid robots, inverter and ESS policy compliance, and power-tool demand. Nomura remains cautious on the first two themes but expects Techtronic's Milwaukee momentum to support growth through 2027F.

• Current humanoid shipments demonstrate manufacturability rather than durable commercial demand, in Nomura's view.
• Industrial and logistics humanoid adoption is constrained by unproven ROI, MTBF and takt-time economics.
• US and EU policy requirements raise Sungrow's compliance, re-certification and localization costs.
• Nomura expects replacement demand, distributor restocking and Milwaukee mix to support Techtronic in 2H26F and 2027F.

Morgan Stanley says five covered operators have announced roughly 5GW of AI data-center capacity over the next five years, supported by enterprise AI demand, data sovereignty and policy backing. It prefers Samsung SDS for its neocloud lead and captive demand, and also favors KT, while retaining Equal-weight views on Naver, SK Telecom and LG Uplus.

• Five operators' announced plans total about 5GW over the next five years.
• Localized inference demand is driven by enterprise AI adoption and restrictions on sensitive data leaving Korea.
• Neocloud offers the highest potential economics but also the highest capital, utilization and GPU-obsolescence risks.
• Samsung SDS is Morgan Stanley's preferred AIDC play; its target remains W270,000 and rating Overweight.
• KT is also Overweight, with a W62,000 target, as its valuation is viewed as not reflecting AIDC upside.
• Power availability, supply concentration in 2029-30 and sustained policy support are central risks.

JPMorgan expects a 25bp Fed rate hike, without an immediate Hong Kong prime-rate increase, to lift Hong Kong banks' NIM and 2027 revenue. It sees resilient Hong Kong CRE credit quality and identifies Bank of China as relatively well placed among China banks because of its overseas earnings exposure.

• Estimated NIM uplift is 5bp for BOCHK and DSBG, about 2bp for BEA, HSBC and Standard Chartered without a prime-rate hike.
• The estimated 2027 revenue benefit ranges from 0.5% for Standard Chartered to 2.5% for BOCHK.
• JPMorgan considers Hong Kong CRE risks manageable despite higher rates and sees no meaningful near-term loan-growth slowdown.
• A US hike may reduce the likelihood of further China LPR cuts and support Bank of China's overseas-income advantage.

The report argues that AI capex, semiconductor-margin expansion, and private-investment gains are temporarily inflating earnings, but forecasts continued 11% S&P 500 EPS growth in both 2027 and 2028. Goldman Sachs expects earnings, rather than valuation expansion, to drive further market upside.

• S&P 500 EPS grew 51% year-on-year in Q2 2026 and 26% over the past four quarters.
• Goldman Sachs forecasts S&P 500 EPS of $415 in 2027 and $460 in 2028, both representing 11% growth.
• AI capex is estimated to add 11 percentage points to 2026 EPS growth but become a marginal drag by 2028 as depreciation rises.
• A decline in semiconductor gross margins from roughly 70% to the 15-year average of 55% would cut S&P 500 earnings by about 10%.
• The report's 12-month S&P 500 target is 8,700, implying a 14% return.

A unanimous September FOMC hike, higher policy-rate projections and firm activity data reinforce Nomura's hawkish policy outlook. The firm raised its Q3 GDP tracking estimate to 4.0% annualized while warning that energy, supply-chain and goods-price pressures keep inflation risks skewed higher.

• The FOMC raised rates by 25bp unanimously in September; Nomura expects another 25bp increase in December.
• The 2026 median policy-rate projection rose to 4.125% from 3.75%, while twelve participants projected one more hike.
• Nomura raised Q3 GDP tracking to 4.0% annualized from 3.3%, supported by consumption and capex.
• August retail sales rose 1.2% month on month and Nomura estimates real retail sales increased 0.7%.
• Core PCE inflation is expected to reach 3.4% year on year in Q4 2026.

The report highlights Zensho, FOOD & LIFE Companies, Nextage and ALSOK as focus stocks, supported by specific earnings, expansion, pricing and shareholder-return catalysts. It remains selective as restaurant demand, staffing and AI-related disruption create divergent outcomes across industries.

• Zensho could see further guidance upside as newly harvested rice prices decline and Global Hama-Sushi margins improve.
• FOOD & LIFE Companies is positioned for continued Sushiro strength, with its medium-term plan and first US store as near-term catalysts.
• Nextage's purchasing growth, wholesale-route expansion and improving gross profit support prospects for another guidance increase.
• ALSOK's pricing, margin expansion and buybacks underpin an ROE-improvement thesis.
• The report sees relative strength in high-end recruiting and manufacturing staffing, but weaker office staffing and recruitment media conditions.

Morgan Stanley summarizes pipeline, regulatory, partnership and commercialization discussions from ARVN, GPCR, NRIX and PRME. The central focus is on upcoming clinical data, program differentiation and the timing of regulatory progress.

• ARVN outlined oncology and neurology data milestones extending into 2027.
• GPCR highlighted oral obesity-program efficacy, Phase 3 plans and additional 4Q26 readouts.
• NRIX detailed its Roche collaboration and multiple oncology and autoimmune development paths.
• PRME emphasized gene-editing delivery, regulatory flexibility and 2027 proof-of-concept data.

Morgan Stanley reiterates Overweight on CATL's A-shares, arguing that weak share performance already reflects lower earnings expectations while ESS, commercial-vehicle electrification, consolidation and reduced OEM battery self-sufficiency support fundamentals. Its Rmb595 target price implies 88% upside from the Sep. 15 close.

• A Rmb24-25bn 3Q earnings outcome would still be consistent with Morgan Stanley's Rmb95bn full-year forecast.
• The report argues the market is already discounting the prior roughly Rmb100bn full-year earnings scenario.
• ESS deployment, commercial fleet electrification and industry consolidation are cited as improving demand and competitive drivers.
• CATL trades on a stated 6.2% yield including buybacks, despite approximately 30% ROE and approximately 50% ROIC.
• Morgan Stanley uses a 15x 2027E EV/EBITDA multiple for the A-share target, equivalent to 22x 2027E P/E.

HSBC sees 1H26 results as validating AIDD monetisation and expanding long-term optionality through owned assets, new modalities and agentic AI. It maintains Buy on Insilico with a higher HKD85.90 target price, while keeping XtalPi at Hold and lowering its target to HKD7.70.

• Insilico reported 1H26 revenue of USD106.3m, up 287% year on year, and turned profitable with USD35.5m net profit.
• Rentosertib entered its pivotal Phase III IPF trial; HSBC regards the anti-aging signal as supportive long-term optionality rather than a current valuation driver.
• XtalPi's 1H26 revenue was RMB393.6m, 33% below HSBC's estimate because of delayed DoveTree milestone recognition.
• HSBC expects BD execution, clinical readouts and ecosystem expansion to be the principal 2H26 catalysts.