Institutional Research

Barclays finds that Japan’s AI-related goods surplus increased to JPY2.4trn in January-July 2026, from JPY2.0trn a year earlier. Semiconductor equipment is providing a direct production boost, while memory’s trade gains are largely price-led and have had little effect on overall CPI.

• AI-related goods surplus widened by JPY0.4trn year on year to JPY2.4trn in January-July 2026.
• Semiconductor manufacturing equipment and parts improved the trade balance by about JPY560bn year on year.
• Memory’s trade-balance improvement was about JPY310bn, but export-value growth was predominantly driven by unit prices.
• Taiwan and Korea equipment demand has accelerated since H2 2025.
• Memory-related products contributed less than 0.1pp to August nationwide core CPI inflation.

Asian growth remains resilient outside China, but the report argues that the appropriate response to higher global rates differs materially by market. It retains India curve flatteners, Korea steepeners and short USD/CNH and USD/TWD views, while initiating a Singapore SORA flattener.

• Growth NowCasts are strong in Korea, Singapore and Malaysia, while India’s domestic-demand strength is contributing to higher inflation tracking.
• China remains the regional outlier: stronger exports and industrial production are offset by property weakness and subdued consumption.
• The report favors a Korean 2Y/10Y steepener despite near-term Fed-related headwinds, citing a cheap front end and belly-heavy issuance.
• It maintains a short USD/CNH bias as August FX conversion and USD selling rebounded and the official fixing moved lower faster.
• A new Singapore SORA 1Y/3Y flattener is based on expected tighter liquidity, Fed spillover and limited paid positioning.

Higher AI CapEx forecasts imply a larger, multi-year supply cycle for corporate credit. Goldman Sachs sees broader USD investment-grade credit as resilient but advises selectivity in AI-related, hardware, and data-center project-finance debt.

• 2027 direct global hyperscaler IG issuance is forecast at $420bn, up from a prior $400bn estimate.
• The forecast is more than 60% above the $250bn full-year 2026 estimate.
• Global AI-related gross debt issuance has reached $578bn year to date; hyperscalers account for 40%.
• AI-related bonds represent 12% of USD IG notional, versus 6% in USD HY, 3% in EUR IG, and 1% in EUR HY.
• The report remains cautious on meaningful additions to AI-related credit despite some local spread relief.

Citi argues that the SEC's Innovation Exemption favors issuer-sponsored, regulated tokenized-equity models and is materially positive for Bullish and Securitize. The next test is whether issuers and market infrastructure providers convert the framework into commercial-scale activity.

• The framework emphasizes issuers, shareholder rights, transfer agents, compliance controls, and regulated trading infrastructure.
• Citi sees issuer participation as a potential solution to tokenization's long-standing cold-start problem.
• Bullish's pending Equiniti acquisition could make transfer-agent capabilities a strategic control point.
• Securitize's transfer-agent, broker-dealer, ATS, and compliance infrastructure is closely aligned with the emerging framework.
• Citi identifies issuer launches, NYSE platform progress, Securitize activity, DTCC rollout, and liquidity-provider participation as key proof points.

Morgan Stanley highlights strong general-server and AI-server demand, with ISG revenue expected to accelerate year on year in 2QF27. Management expects PC volumes to fall 15–20% year on year in C2H26 but targets roughly stable IDG operating margin through cost reductions.

• Cloud customers, including neoclouds, contribute about 70% of server revenue; ESMB contributes about 30%.
• ISG revenue is expected to continue accelerating year on year in 2QF27 under the current forecast.
• Lenovo expects PC volumes to decline 15–20% year on year in C2H26.
• Management targets IDG operating margin of about 7% in 2QF27, flat quarter on quarter.
• Management maintains a near-term 5% net-profit-margin target and a longer-term 5–8% target.

Goldman Sachs argues that AI infrastructure spending, larger public borrowing needs and higher yields are intensifying competition for capital. It is neutral on equities over three months but overweight over 12 months, as earnings growth and nominal GDP are expected to remain supportive.

• Rapid yield increases, rather than higher yields alone, have recently pressured equities.
• Earnings have driven equity returns since January 2025 while valuation multiples have been flat or lower across major regions.
• AI-related capex is raising corporate funding needs and contributing materially to US investment-grade credit supply.
• Technology valuations have moderated, but an eventual slowdown in earnings growth remains the central risk.
• Falling cross-market and intra-technology correlations broaden the case for geographic, sector and factor diversification.

The Pulse compiles investor debates from recent management meetings across oil, energy services, power, utilities, nuclear and steel. The report is constructive on behind-the-meter power, selected international oil growth, nuclear equipment and uranium, and higher-for-longer steel pricing, while flagging regulatory and project-execution uncertainty.

• Chevron’s international projects, Permian efficiency gains and Project Kilby are presented as potential drivers of 10% adjusted free-cash-flow growth by decade-end.
• Behind-the-meter power demand remains active, with LBRT, PUMP and KGS focused on contracts, equipment availability and project economics.
• Utility valuations and performance reflect election-related data-center concerns and high rates; Goldman Sachs favors comparatively insulated DUK and XEL while highlighting EXC as more challenged.
• Nuclear deployment momentum and potential uranium supply restraint support Goldman Sachs’ constructive UEC outlook.
• Goldman Sachs expects steel supply tightness and pricing strength to persist through 2027.

Morgan Stanley reports that China vehicle export volumes rose 38% year-on-year in August as domestic demand remained subdued and OEMs pushed further overseas. Imports from China continued to gain share across many markets, particularly in Europe, even as tyres and several non-China export markets showed weaker trends.

• China auto exports rose 43% year-on-year in USD terms and 38% in volume in August.
• China-origin vehicle imports continued to gain share across Europe, Australia, Japan, India, Latin America and South Africa.
• European policy proposals on local content, minimum prices and hybrid tariffs may encourage local inventory and assembly by Chinese OEMs and suppliers.
• China tyre exports declined as raw-material and shipping costs increased, while exports from several other regions grew.
• China auto-parts exports resumed growth, while US and South Korean parts exports remained negative.

JPMorgan views the 2026 Policy Address and first Five-Year Plan as a move from broad policy design toward execution. Near-term growth support should be modest, but successful delivery could strengthen Hong Kong’s potential growth and competitiveness.

• Finance remains the core comparative advantage, supported by Connect expansion, RMB initiatives and capital-market reforms.
• The plan targets R&D spending of 3% of GDP after 2030 and manufacturing/new-industrialization value added of 5.5% of GDP, from around 3.8%.
• The Northern Metropolis is positioned as an integrated research-to-production hub, with 900 hectares of spade-ready sites targeted for 2026-27 to 2030-31.
• Execution, financing and delivery timing are the principal factors to monitor.
• Expanded pro-natal, talent-retention and housing measures are expected to have gradual rather than immediate macroeconomic effects.

Deutsche Bank argues that gold's ability to hold firm despite higher US yields and oil points to resilient underlying demand, while expected CTA selling may create a more attractive near-term entry point. Copper remains supported by anticipated inventory scarcity, whereas palladium is most exposed to weak spot flows.

• Gold was roughly unchanged despite US 10-year yields above 5% and crude oil above $100/bbl.
• CTAs were estimated to sell up to 7% of maximum gold position size below $4,360/oz in the session.
• The report expects commercial, non-commercial, Chinese spot and reserve-manager inflows to offset retail and CTA selling in gold.
• Palladium recorded spot outflows equal to 30% of maximum position size and is viewed as most vulnerable.
• Copper CTAs were already near maximum long positioning, while the report expects acute physical scarcity in coming months.