Global cross-market strategy and equity research monitor: Goldman Sachs’ cross-market monitor turns constructive on copper, AI-linked supply chains and selected healthcare names while flagging coal oversupply and uneven China demand.

Overview

This edition of The 720 is a global cross-asset and equity-research monitor covering China commodities and policy, Australian macro strategy, Asian healthcare and technology, selected company updates, critical minerals, and the US midterm election. Its central message is selective optimism around constrained copper supply, AI-related demand and healthcare outsourcing, offset by coal-supply normalization, weak China demand in several consumer categories, and macro or execution risks.

Core views

In China commodities, Goldman Sachs becomes more positive on copper because domestic scrap-supply constraints are tightening the market. Conversely, it turns negative on Chinese thermal coal as policy efforts to revamp production are progressing faster than expected. The institution expects swings in Shanxi state-owned supply to ease tightness and potentially overshoot by 1H2027, leading it to lower its 2027 benchmark thermal-coal forecast to Rmb750/t from Rmb850/t and reduce 2027–2028 earnings estimates across its coal coverage by 8–19%. It downgrades Chinacoal-H/A to Neutral with 12-month target prices of HK$12.5 and Rmb16, lowers Yankuang-H to Sell with a HK$10 target price and cuts the Yankuang-A target to Rmb14, and trims Shenhua-H/A targets to HK$42 and Rmb45. It reiterates Buy on copper names Zijin and CMOC. On Australian macro and strategy, Goldman Sachs says the RBA’s cash-rate increase has taken rates to a 15-year high. Its economics team expects the RBA to remain on hold as growth slows materially and unemployment rises; the base case is an extended hold followed by a gradual easing cycle from 2H2027. The ASX 200 has de-rated 7% since the first hike, while rate-sensitive REITs, retail and technology have underperformed and the broader index remains expensive relative to bonds. Goldman Sachs argues that a slower pace of yield increases could reduce downside risk and improve the backdrop for equities. Its positioning screen focuses on names that historically outperform when 10-year yields fall, have lagged in the sell-off, and trade at more than a 10% discount to historical multiples. Further RBA tightening remains a material risk, potentially as early as November if inflation surprises upward; higher funding costs are also expected to become a more material earnings drag in FY2027. Goldman Sachs views China’s new targeted fiscal and monetary measures as more of a policy signal than a major near-term growth impulse. The package includes a 25bp cut in the pledged supplementary lending rate to 1.5%, a 1 percentage-point mortgage-interest subsidy for eligible first-home buyers, broader PSL support for “Six Networks” projects, and Rmb200bn and Rmb500bn increases in relending quotas for technology innovation and SME programs. The institution sees the measures as mainly supply-side support. While the mortgage subsidy may bring some purchases forward, it expects only a modest aggregate effect because eligibility is restricted to homes capped at Rmb1.5mn and 120 square meters. In healthcare, Goldman Sachs says the Asia CDMO investment narrative is shifting from the pace of recovery to the durability of structural growth. It cites broad improvement in outsourcing demand across regions, modalities and development stages, alongside reaccelerating capital expenditure, strong order intake and opportunities in peptides, ADCs, oligonucleotides, biosimilars and AI-enabled drug discovery. Recovering preclinical and safety-assessment activity is viewed as a leading indicator for later manufacturing demand. The institution favors early-stage R&D and innovation exposure through WuXi XDC, Pharmaron and Tigermed, while highlighting catalyst-driven and commercial-manufacturing beneficiaries including Samsung Biologics, Asymchem, WuXi AppTec and GenScript. Separately, Hengrui Medicine’s exclusive ex-China licensing agreement with Novo for Phase I-ready oral GLP-1/GIP peptide HRS-1596 is seen as validation of its metabolic franchise: the deal provides US$300mn upfront and up to US$2.3bn in milestones, and supports Goldman Sachs’ Buy view and Rmb73.86 12-month target price. For Japanese electronic components, Goldman Sachs sees the Taiyo Yuden–TDK memorandum of understanding for an MLCC and inductor alliance as a logical, complementary response to rapidly expanding AI demand. The tie-up combines TDK’s automotive and high-voltage strengths with Taiyo Yuden’s compact, high-capacitance expertise, which the institution believes improves their ability to address AI-server demand and technology shifts. It also sees potential industry consolidation as positive for supplier positioning, capacity and investment efficiency, while expecting Murata to retain leadership in the sector profit pool and Kyocera to continue independently. In consumer and technology, Goldman Sachs continues to prefer US consumer exposure over a weakening Australian consumer and views Breville Group as best placed in its coverage. It identifies delivery speed and agentic-AI commerce as drivers of conversion and order value; Woolworths and Wesfarmers are described as better progressed locally than Coles and JB Hi-Fi. It also flags market-share risk for Sigma Healthcare as social-commerce platforms expand. A subsequent US field trip reinforced Goldman Sachs’ positive view of Breville’s brand and route-to-market in US espresso, including positioning at Williams Sonoma and share gains supported by Best Buy store-in-store displays, although it is more cautious about the medium-term competitive threat from SharkNinja’s Ninja Luxe Cafe. Goldman Sachs maintains Breville’s A$37.7 12-month target price. China demand weakness drives several estimate adjustments. For Budweiser APAC, Goldman Sachs lowers its 12-month target to HK$6.9 from HK$7.3 and cuts 2026–2028 recurring-net-profit estimates by 7–12%, reflecting expected volume and EBITDA pressure before 3Q2026. It forecasts a 16% China volume decline and a 25% EBITDA fall for the quarter, citing weak industry demand, unfavorable weather, destocking and operating deleverage; softer Korean volumes, cost headwinds and higher China sales-and-distribution spending also weigh on margins. For Haitian Flavouring & Food, it lowers A- and H-share targets to Rmb33.1 and HK$35.2, maintains Neutral on A shares and Buy on H shares, and cuts 2026–2028 sales estimates by 2–3% and net-profit estimates by 3–6%. Soft catering demand, disciplined shipments, soybean and PET inflation, and weaker operating leverage drive the near-term caution, although normalized inventories, township penetration and wider retail channels support the longer-term outlook. Taiwan ODM and brand suppliers are expected to deliver sequential three-month revenue growth as next-generation AI server racks and flagship smartphones ramp. Goldman Sachs favors exposure to new Apple form factors and rising ASIC AI-server penetration, highlighting Hon Hai as a Conviction List Buy. It raises Wistron’s 12-month target to NT$295, lifting 2026–2028 EPS estimates by 2–4% and revenue estimates by 6–11% on stronger rack-level AI shipments and higher ASPs. It also raises Inventec’s target to NT$61 and its 2026–2028 EPS estimates by 2–5% on higher AI-server ASPs, but notes that component constraints could restrain near-term growth. Goldman Sachs believes Nidec’s appointment of Michio Kaida as president and confirmation of its September 30 earnings release should ease concerns following former CEO Mitsuya Kishida’s resignation over inappropriate financial-reporting conduct. Kaida’s technology background as CTO and reform record on the Corporate Reform Committee are seen as supportive of a revitalization. The resumed disclosure schedule may also reassure investors on the path to removing the Security on Special Alert designation and implementing the next five-year plan; Goldman Sachs retains Buy and a ¥3,200 12-month target price. In critical minerals, executives at Goldman Sachs’ Brazil Rare Earths Day described Brazil as an increasingly important Western rare-earth supply-chain hub. Projects from Brazilian Rare Earths, Meteoric Resources and Viridis Mining target start-ups in 2028–2031, supported by high ore grades, cost advantages and funding progress across hard-rock and ionic-clay deposits. Management teams expect Brazil’s National Policy on Critical Minerals to encourage domestic midstream separation and move the country toward integrated refining. They also expect Western supply-chain mandates and state-backed financing to support rare-earth prices as diversification away from China advances. For the US midterms, Goldman Sachs relaunches its election monitor and assigns a high probability to a Democratic sweep. Prediction markets imply more than a 60% chance of a Democratic Senate majority and over a 90% chance of a House majority. Democratic odds have risen with cycle-high generic-ballot margins, but key Senate polling leads remain within margins of error and Republicans retain a sizable late-cycle spending advantage. Goldman Sachs says an 8.5 percentage-point Democratic generic-ballot lead implies an 11-point swing from 2024, more than offsetting anticipated small Republican redistricting gains, while cautioning that polling at this stage can slightly overstate Democratic support in Republican-leaning states.

Analysis framework

Goldman Sachs combines commodity supply-demand analysis, macro-policy interpretation, interest-rate and valuation screening, company earnings previews, management-event assessment, and sector demand analysis. The report uses forecast changes, target prices, earnings revisions, policy terms, operational indicators and cross-company positioning to explain each view.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisSupply-demand framework

  Commodity and sector supply-demand analysis

  The report links copper and coal views to scrap availability, production reform and state-owned supply, and assesses CDMO, AI-server and rare-earth opportunities through demand, capacity and supply-chain conditions.

• Other

  Rate-sensitivity and historical-multiple positioning screen

  For Australian equities, Goldman Sachs screens for shares that tend to outperform when 10-year yields fall, have lagged in the sell-off, and trade at more than a 10% discount to historical multiples.

• Event-Driven and Behavioral FinanceEvent-driven analysis

  Catalyst and event analysis

  The report evaluates corporate announcements, earnings releases, licensing transactions, management changes and election probabilities as potential drivers of company or market outcomes.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Zijin

  Copper exposure favored as domestic scrap constraints tighten supply.

  Strengths

  Buy reiterated.

  Comparison

  Grouped with CMOC as a preferred copper name.

  Risks

  Commodity-market conditions may differ from the supply-tightness view.

• CMOC

  Copper exposure favored as domestic scrap constraints tighten supply.

  Strengths

  Buy reiterated.

  Comparison

  Grouped with Zijin as a preferred copper name.

  Risks

  Commodity-market conditions may differ from the supply-tightness view.

• Chinacoal-H/A

  Chinese coal producer affected by expected supply normalization.

  Weaknesses

  Rating downgraded to Neutral.

  Comparison

  Part of Goldman Sachs’ negatively revised coal coverage.

  Risks

  Shanxi supply swings may ease tightness and potentially overshoot by 1H2027.

• Yankuang-H/A

  Chinese coal producer affected by the lower thermal-coal outlook.

  Weaknesses

  Yankuang-H lowered to Sell; coal earnings estimates were cut.

  Comparison

  Target prices reduced alongside the broader coal coverage.

  Risks

  Faster production reform and potential coal-market oversupply.

• Hengrui Medicine

  Biopharma company supported by a Novo licensing agreement for HRS-1596.

  Strengths

  The deal validates the metabolic franchise and broadens overseas business development beyond oncology.

  Comparison

  Exposed to differentiated oral incretin therapies and cardiometabolic innovation.

• Breville Group

  Preferred Australian consumer exposure with substantial US-market exposure.

  Strengths

  Strong brand, route-to-market strategy, aspirational retail positioning and US market-share gains.

  Comparison

  Goldman Sachs views it as best placed within its coverage.

  Risks

  Medium-term competition from SharkNinja’s Ninja Luxe Cafe espresso machine.

• Wistron

  Taiwan ODM positioned for AI server-rack demand and higher ASPs.

  Strengths

  Buy-rated; higher rack-level AI shipments support raised revenue and EPS estimates.

  Comparison

  Target raised to NT$295.

• Inventec

  Taiwan ODM benefiting from higher AI-server ASPs.

  Strengths

  Target raised to NT$61 and EPS estimates increased.

  Weaknesses

  Neutral-rated.

  Comparison

  Compared with Wistron, its near-term growth faces a greater stated supply constraint.

  Risks

  Component supply constraints may weigh on near-term growth.

• Nidec

  Management change and restored earnings-release schedule are viewed as confidence-restoring catalysts.

  Strengths

  New president’s technology and reform background; Buy rating maintained.

  Weaknesses

  Elevated market concern followed inappropriate financial-reporting conduct.

  Risks

  Execution of governance remediation, removal of the Security on Special Alert designation and delivery of the next five-year plan.

Key data

• China thermal-coal benchmark forecastRmb750/t for 2027, down from Rmb850/tLowered as production reform and Shanxi state-owned supply are expected to loosen tight markets and potentially overshoot by 1H2027.
• China coal earnings revisions8–19% cuts for 2027–2028Applied across Goldman Sachs’ coal coverage.
• RBA policy outlookGradual easing expected from 2H2027Goldman Sachs’ base case follows an extended hold after the cash rate reached a 15-year high.
• China PSL rate1.5%The targeted-easing package reduced the rate by 25bp.
• China relending-quota increasesRmb200bn for technology innovation and Rmb500bn for SME programsMeasures are viewed principally as supply-side support.
• Hengrui–Novo licensing dealUS$300mn upfront and up to US$2.3bn in milestonesFor ex-China rights to HRS-1596, a Phase I-ready oral GLP-1/GIP peptide.
• Budweiser APAC China 3Q26 forecast16% volume decline and 25% EBITDA declineGoldman Sachs attributes the expected decline to weak demand, weather, destocking and operating deleverage.
• US election probabilitiesMore than 60% for a Democratic Senate majority and over 90% for a House majorityBased on cited prediction-market implications.

Impact & implications

Goldman Sachs’ conclusions favor areas where supply constraints, AI investment, outsourcing demand, corporate catalysts or durable US consumer exposure can support outcomes. Its cautions center on coal supply normalization, modest Chinese policy transmission, weak China consumption, input-cost pressure, component constraints, inflation-driven rate risk, competition and election uncertainty.

Risks

• Further RBA tightening could occur as early as November if inflation surprises on the upside.
• Chinese targeted easing may have only a modest aggregate effect because mortgage-subsidy eligibility is narrow.
• Budweiser APAC faces weak China demand, unfavorable weather, destocking, Korean volume softness, cost pressures and higher China distribution spending.
• Haitian Flavouring & Food faces soft catering demand, soybean and PET inflation, and weaker operating leverage.
• Inventec’s near-term growth may be constrained by component supply.
• Breville faces a medium-term competitive threat from SharkNinja.
• US Senate polling remains close to the margin of error, and early polls may overstate Democratic support in Republican-leaning states.

What to watch

• The pace of Shanxi coal supply changes and whether markets loosen or overshoot by 1H2027.
• Australian inflation data and the RBA’s policy path, including the prospect of further tightening.
• Whether Chinese mortgage support generates materially stronger housing demand despite eligibility caps.
• CDMO order intake, capital-expenditure plans and recovery in early-stage research demand.
• AI server-rack shipments, ASIC penetration, smartphone demand and component availability for Taiwan ODMs.
• Nidec’s earnings release, governance remediation and progress toward removing its Security on Special Alert designation.
• US generic-ballot margins, Senate polling, campaign spending and redistricting developments.