China’s trade momentum continues in April, with imports accelerating faster

Overview

This report focuses on China’s April trade data in 2026. It notes that both exports and imports in China continued their strong momentum, with import growth clearly accelerating more than export growth. Export demand is supported by emerging-market demand, AI-related products, autos and parts, and HALO assets, while import strength is supported by export-related production demand, rising overseas prices, and a potential recovery in domestic demand.

Core views

The core view is that China’s trade momentum is not driven by a single price move or short-term fluctuation, but by a combination of external demand structure, the AI supply chain, autos chain, industrial production inputs, and inventory cycles. The report reiterates its prior view that AHEAD factors are likely to support China’s export growth over a longer period. At the same time, imports being better than expected may also signal an improvement in domestic industrial demand and inventory replenishment.

Analysis framework

The report mainly uses year-over-year growth, seasonally adjusted trade data, comparison with market expectations, product mix decomposition, import price-contribution estimates, and changes in industrial inventories to explain April trade performance. It also uses chart comparisons of export categories and import price changes between Q1 and April.

Methodology notes

• macro_trade_analysisAHEAD Factor Framework

  Using structural factors such as emerging-market demand, AI-related products, autos and parts, and HALO assets to explain the resilience of China’s exports.

  The report argues that these factors jointly support China’s exports and may sustain export growth momentum over a longer period.

• macro_trade_analysisImport Drivers Decomposition

  Decomposing the strong import performance into three categories: production inputs for exports, rising import prices, and a potential recovery in domestic demand.

  The report uses product categories, price changes, and industrial inventory data to explain why import growth is materially above expectations.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China macro assets

  Improved trade momentum may support higher growth expectations and stronger risk appetite.

  Strengths

  Both exports and imports beat expectations, indicating strong external demand and production input demand.

  Weaknesses

  A portion of import growth is driven by price increases, which may not fully reflect real demand volume improvement.

  Comparison

  Import growth is significantly higher than export growth, suggesting that production inputs and price factors are more prominent in the trade mix.

  Risks

  Slowing global demand, commodity price softening, or policy shocks could weaken momentum.

• Semiconductor and computer supply chain

  AI-related products are an important driver of both exports and imports.

  Strengths

  Computer and semiconductor exports rose to about 73% year-over-year in April.

  Weaknesses

  Domestic AI development also generates substantial import demand, which may reflect continued dependence on imports at certain key nodes.

  Comparison

  The growth rate of this category is clearly higher than most other export categories.

  Risks

  Global technology cycles, trade restrictions, and price volatility may affect persistence.

• Autos and parts

  The report identifies it as one of the main channels supporting China’s exports.

  Strengths

  Exports remain at high growth in both Q1 and April.

  Weaknesses

  April growth moderated compared with Q1.

  Comparison

  Momentum is lower than semiconductors and computers, but it remains an AHEAD-related export pillar.

  Risks

  Overseas market competition, tariff changes, and regulatory shifts could affect exports.

• Commodities and raw materials

  Rising import prices and inventory replenishment are pushing up import value.

  Strengths

  Import prices for oil, metals, plastics, and semiconductors were generally higher in April than in Q1.

  Weaknesses

  Price-driven effects can amplify nominal import value and may obscure real demand changes.

  Comparison

  The oil price contribution change was the most pronounced.

  Risks

  Commodity price declines or a reversal in inventory cycles could weaken import growth.

Key data

• April export growth14.1% YoYAbove market expectation of 8% and Deutsche Bank’s estimate of 10%.
• April import growth25.3% YoYAccelerated from 23.6% in Q1 and above market consensus of 14.7% and Deutsche Bank’s estimate of 18%.
• Gap between import and export growth in first four monthsabout 8 percentage pointsAfter seasonal adjustment, import average growth was about 8 percentage points higher than export growth.
• Computer and semiconductor exportsabout 73% YoY in AprilRising further from around 50% in Q1.
• Industrial inventory growth8.3% YoY in Q1About twice the growth rate from the prior year, potentially reflecting industrial demand and inventory replenishment.
• Semiconductor and computer net importsover $54 billion in the first four monthsThe report links this to domestic AI development and associated import demand.
• Oil import priceabout 42% YoY in AprilUp sharply from roughly 50 percentage points in Q1; the report estimates price contribution to import value rose from -13 percentage points in Q1 to 33 percentage points in April.

Impact & implications

If the report’s view is correct, the resilience of China’s exports may continue to be supported by the AI supply chain, emerging markets, and the autos chain. The acceleration in imports may imply that production inputs, price factors, and domestic demand are all improving. For asset allocation, this supports a focus on China trade chains, semiconductors and computers, autos and parts, machinery, industrial metals, chemicals, and commodity-related assets, but it also requires attention to price volatility and shifts in global demand.

Risks

• Deutsche Bank disclosed incomplete HALO data, which creates data coverage limitations for related conclusions.
• Price contributions to import growth are large, which may overstate the extent of real demand improvement.
• Changes in global demand, interest rates, inflation, exchange rates, and geopolitical trade policy could affect the sustainability of exports.
• Rising industrial inventories could reflect restocking, but could also create inventory pressure if demand falls short of expectations.
• Deutsche Bank’s disclosed research views may be inconsistent with other business units, trading behavior, or client trading.

What to watch

• Whether exports in subsequent months remain above market expectations.
• Whether the growth of AI-related products, semiconductors, and computer exports can be sustained.
• Whether import price contribution continues to rise, especially for oil, metals, plastics, and semiconductors.
• Whether industrial inventory growth continues to rise and whether it translates into real demand.
• The persistence of exports to emerging markets, ASEAN, autos and parts, and HALO-related destinations.