AstraZeneca (AZN): J.P. Morgan expects AstraZeneca’s solid 3Q26 revenue delivery and FY26 guidance reiteration to support consensus.

Overview

This is J.P. Morgan’s preview of AstraZeneca’s 3Q26 results, due on 30 October 2026. The institution expects a modest revenue beat versus post-2Q consensus, but sees the benefit largely offset by higher operating costs and financial expenses; it also expects FY26 guidance to be reiterated.

Core views

J.P. Morgan forecasts 3Q26 total revenue of $16.024bn, representing approximately 5% growth at constant exchange rates (CER) and about 1% above post-2Q company consensus of $15.921bn. Product sales are expected to reach $14.946bn, up roughly 3% at CER and 1% above consensus of $14.855bn. The report attributes the relative strength chiefly to Rare Diseases and Oncology, while alliance revenue is forecast to grow strongly on Enhertu and Tezspire profit sharing. Within product sales, the institution expects Calquence to exceed consensus by 4%, or $36m, supported by continued growth of approximately 17% CER in first-line CLL and MCL. It forecasts Strensiq to exceed consensus by 8%, or $41m, on continuing demand from HPP patients, while Koselugo is expected to be 15%, or $32m, above consensus. These positives are partly offset by forecasts below consensus for Lynparza by 3%, or $23m, and for Imfinzi/Imjudo by 1%, or $28m. Alliance revenue is projected at $1.070bn, 31% CER growth and 4% above consensus, driven by Enhertu and Tezspire. J.P. Morgan expects only $8m of one-off collaboration revenue, versus consensus of $31m, resulting in total alliance and collaboration revenue of $1.078bn, about 1% above the $1.066bn consensus forecast. The report expects stronger revenue to be substantially offset below gross profit. Gross profit is forecast at $13.182bn, around 1% above consensus, with gross margin of 82.3%, roughly 10 basis points higher. However, R&D is projected at 23.5% of revenue, approximately 20 basis points above consensus, and SG&A at 25.3%, approximately 30 basis points above consensus. Consequently, core operating profit is forecast at $5.373bn, broadly in line with consensus of $5.394bn, despite the revenue outperformance. J.P. Morgan forecasts 3Q26 core EPS of $2.60, about 1% below early company consensus of $2.61. The shortfall is attributed to higher net financial expenses, while the expected 20.0% core tax rate is essentially in line with the 19.9% consensus assumption. For FY26, the institution expects AstraZeneca to reiterate guidance for total revenue growth in the mid- to high-single digits at CER and core EPS growth in the low-double-digit percentage range at CER. It also expects reiterated FX guidance of a low-single-digit positive effect on total revenue and a neutral effect on core EPS. Applying 7% CER revenue growth plus a 2% FX tailwind yields FY26 total revenue of $64.108bn, 1.5% above company consensus of $63.176bn; applying 12% CER core EPS growth and no FX effect yields $10.26, in line with consensus. The report therefore does not anticipate significant forecast changes after the results. Beyond earnings, J.P. Morgan highlights four AstraZeneca Presidential Symposium presentations at ESMO on 24–25 October: detailed Phase III VOLGA results for Imfinzi with or without Imjudo plus neoadjuvant EV in muscle-invasive bladder cancer; Phase III DeLLphi-305 data for Imdelltra plus Imfinzi maintenance in extensive-stage small-cell lung cancer; Phase III SAFFRON data for Tagrisso plus Orpathys; and Phase III Sone-V data in Claudin 18.2-positive advanced or metastatic gastric cancer. Ivonescimab Phase III first-line biliary tract cancer data are also scheduled for presentation.

Analysis framework

J.P. Morgan compares its product-level and profit-and-loss forecasts with post-2Q company consensus, evaluates constant-exchange-rate growth and FX effects, then traces revenue differences through gross profit, R&D, SG&A, financial expenses and core EPS. It also applies management’s stated FY26 growth and FX guidance to derive implied full-year revenue and EPS outcomes.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisVolume-price decomposition

  Product-level sales and CER growth comparison

  The report breaks expected revenue performance down by major therapy areas and products, comparing sales growth and forecast differences against consensus.

• Other

  Consensus-versus-estimate P&L bridge

  The report compares J.P. Morgan estimates with company consensus from revenue through operating costs, financial expenses, tax and core EPS to explain why a revenue beat does not translate into an EPS beat.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• AstraZeneca (AZN.L)

  Primary covered company; expected solid third-quarter revenue performance and guidance reiteration.

  Strengths

  Forecast outperformance in Calquence, Strensiq, Koselugo, alliance revenue and selected Oncology and Rare Diseases businesses.

  Weaknesses

  Higher expected R&D and SG&A costs, plus higher net financial expenses, constrain earnings relative to revenue.

  Comparison

  J.P. Morgan forecasts total revenue and product sales approximately 1% above consensus, core operating profit broadly in line, and core EPS approximately 1% below consensus.

Key data

• 3Q26 total revenue forecast$16,024mApproximately 5% CER growth; 0.6% above consensus of $15,921m.
• 3Q26 product sales forecast$14,946mApproximately 3% CER growth; 0.6% above consensus of $14,855m.
• 3Q26 alliance revenue forecast$1,070m31.3% year-on-year growth; 3.5% above consensus.
• 3Q26 core operating profit forecast$5,373m0.4% below consensus of $5,394m as higher R&D and SG&A offset stronger revenue.
• 3Q26 core EPS forecast$2.600.6% below consensus of $2.61, reflecting higher net financial expenses.
• Implied FY26 total revenue$64,108mBased on 7% CER growth and a 2% positive FX effect; 1.5% above company consensus.
• Implied FY26 core EPS$10.26Based on 12% CER growth and neutral FX; in line with company consensus.

Impact & implications

The report argues that an expected revenue beat and reaffirmed FY26 guidance should underpin consensus expectations, but higher R&D and SG&A expenses are expected to prevent a corresponding operating-profit beat and leave core EPS modestly below consensus.

What to watch

• AstraZeneca’s 3Q26 results on 30 October 2026, including revenue delivery, operating-cost levels and net financial expenses.
• Whether FY26 guidance for CER revenue growth, core EPS growth and FX effects is reiterated.
• ESMO 2026 presentations for VOLGA, DeLLphi-305, SAFFRON, Sone-V and ivonescimab.