China economic activity and policy: Goldman Sachs’ weekly tracker shows mixed but broadly stable Chinese activity, alongside higher fuel prices and shifting market indicators

Overview

This weekly Goldman Sachs tracker compiles high-frequency indicators across consumption and mobility, production and investment, other macro activity, and markets and policy to monitor the effect of a higher-energy-price supply shock on China. Its latest readings portray uneven activity: several consumer and mobility indicators strengthened, industrial data were mixed, and financial and policy indicators continued to evolve.

Core views

Goldman Sachs updates four groups of high-frequency indicators—consumption and mobility, production and investment, other macro activity, and markets and policy—and says it will publish the tracker weekly to follow closely how a higher-energy-price supply shock affects China’s economy. The report is a monitoring exercise rather than a forecast or investment call. Consumption and mobility data were broadly firmer over the latest week. Daily primary-market property transaction volume across 30 cities increased and moved above the year-ago level. Secondary-market transaction volume across 16 cities edged down week on week but remained slightly above the year-ago level. Domestic passenger flights rose, flight-cancellation rates declined, and traffic congestion increased while remaining above year-ago levels. Consumer confidence, as measured by Morning Consult, also rebounded over the week. Together, these indicators point to improved travel, urban mobility and selected consumer-facing activity, though the property-market signals differed between primary and secondary transactions. Price and industrial indicators were mixed. Domestic gasoline and diesel prices were raised by RMB395/tonne and RMB385/tonne, respectively, on September 25, reflecting the energy-price shock being monitored. Sulfuric-acid prices edged down over the week, while polypropylene prices ticked up. Steel production declined slightly, whereas daily coal consumption in coastal provinces increased and stood above the year-ago level. After seasonal adjustment, EPMI was largely flat in September. These readings show uneven momentum across industrial production, energy use and industrial commodity pricing rather than a uniform acceleration or slowdown. Fiscal and external indicators also gave a mixed picture. RMB3.33tn of local-government special bonds had been issued year to date and remained below the year-ago level. Total government-bond issuance reached RMB8.60tn, equal to 72% of the annual issuance quota; the report notes that its run-rate calculation excludes extra-budget quotas approved after the March Two Sessions budget report. In trade, China’s August export volume of rare-earth magnets fell to the European Union and the United States but edged up to Japan. Outstanding US soybean export sales to China for the 2026/27 marketing year were slightly lower in the third week of September; that marketing year runs from September 1, 2026 to August 31, 2027. Energy and commodity indicators showed a modest pickup in demand alongside lower visible crude inventories. Goldman Sachs’ nowcast put China oil demand at 16.9mb/d in the latest reading, up slightly over the period. The report distinguishes this high-frequency demand measure from its supply-demand balances, which are updated every six weeks. Visible landed crude inventories declined over the past week; the commodities team measures them in days of demand by dividing inventories by refinery runs, using refinery throughput as a proxy for crude demand. In markets and policy, the overnight repo rate remained below the seven-day open-market-operation rate. The renminbi depreciated against the US dollar but appreciated against the CFETS basket over the week, while the USDCNY fixing-implied countercyclical factor declined. The tracker also records major macro-policy announcements since mid-July, positioning policy developments alongside the activity and market data rather than drawing a separate policy conclusion.

Analysis framework

Goldman Sachs uses weekly high-frequency indicators to assess activity across consumer, industrial, fiscal, commodity and financial channels. It compares many indicators with the prior week and year-ago levels, seasonally adjusts EPMI, uses an oil-demand nowcast for timely demand measurement, and expresses visible crude inventories in days of demand using refinery runs as a demand proxy.

Methodology notes

• Other

  High-frequency macroeconomic tracking

  The report combines weekly and daily indicators for mobility, property, industrial activity, fiscal issuance, commodities and markets to provide a timely reading of Chinese economic conditions.

• Other

  China oil-demand nowcast

  Goldman Sachs uses a high-frequency nowcast to estimate current oil demand, distinct from its broader supply-demand balances that are updated every six weeks.

• Industry AnalysisSupply-demand framework

  Visible crude inventories measured in days of demand

  The commodities team divides inventory levels by refinery runs, treated as a proxy for crude demand, to assess how long visible landed crude stocks would cover demand.

Key data

• Local-government special-bond issuanceRMB3.33tn year-to-dateRemained below the year-ago level.
• Government-bond issuanceRMB8.60tn, or 72% of the annual issuance quotaRun-rate estimates exclude extra-budget quotas approved after the March Two Sessions budget report.
• Domestic gasoline price adjustmentRMB395/tonne increaseRaised on September 25.
• Domestic diesel price adjustmentRMB385/tonne increaseRaised on September 25.
• China oil-demand nowcast16.9mb/dEdged up in the latest reading.

Impact & implications

The tracker’s indicators suggest that consumer mobility and some demand measures improved despite a higher-energy-price environment, while industrial, property and fiscal readings remained uneven. Rising fuel prices, modestly stronger oil demand, lower visible crude inventories, and changes in the renminbi and money-market rates are relevant transmission channels for the evolving macro backdrop.

Risks

• A higher-energy-price supply shock could affect Chinese economic activity, which is why Goldman Sachs has increased the tracker’s publication frequency.

What to watch

• Weekly consumption and mobility readings, including property transactions, flights, congestion and consumer confidence.
• Industrial activity, coal consumption, industrial commodity prices and China oil-demand nowcasts.
• The pace of local-government special-bond and total government-bond issuance.
• Money-market rates, the CNY against the USD and CFETS basket, and the USDCNY fixing-implied countercyclical factor.
• Major macro-policy announcements and trade indicators including rare-earth magnet exports and soybean sales to China.