Goldman Sachs weekly tracker of China economic activity and policy: property, travel, energy prices, and liquidity indicators diverge

Overview

This is a weekly Goldman Sachs tracker of China’s economic activity and policy, focusing on updates to four groups of high-frequency indicators: consumption and travel, production and investment, other macro activity, and markets and policy. The report specifically notes that, in order to closely monitor the impact of the supply shock from higher energy prices on China’s economic activity, the relevant tracking has been changed to a weekly release.

Core views

The macro picture in the report is somewhat mixed: housing transactions have improved year over year but have not yet recovered to 2019 levels; secondhand home transactions have recovered more clearly; domestic flight activity weakened in May and fell below the level of the same period last year; city congestion and port throughput suggest that some real activity remains resilient; energy, fuel, and some chemical prices have risen markedly after March 2026, signaling cost-side pressure; interbank repo rates remain low, indicating liquidity conditions are still relatively loose.

Analysis framework

The report uses a high-frequency data dashboard to observe housing transactions, air travel, flight cancellation rates, city congestion, port throughput, fuel and commodity prices, import prices, interbank repo rates, and policy announcements within the same framework to judge marginal changes in China’s economic activity and policy environment. The charts largely use 7-day moving averages, year-over-year changes, and cross-year comparisons, with a focus on comparing activity levels in 2026, 2025, and 2019.

Methodology notes

• High-Frequency Macro TrackingChina Economic Activity and Policy Tracker

  Use high-frequency indicators such as housing, transportation, ports, commodity prices, rates, and policy announcements to observe economic activity.

  This method is suitable for capturing marginal changes before monthly macro data releases, but chart readings are largely high-frequency and visually estimated and cannot replace full official statistical measures.

• Year-over-Year and Historical Benchmark Comparison7-Day Moving Average and Cross-Year Comparison

  Compare 2026 indicators with 2025 and 2019, and mark year-over-year changes on key dates.

  This comparison can distinguish short-term recovery from long-term gaps, for example where housing transactions improve year over year but still remain below pre-pandemic or 2019 levels.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China Macro Assets

  The report directly tracks China’s economic activity and policy environment.

  Strengths

  Some property transaction, city congestion, and port throughput indicators show resilience.

  Weaknesses

  Domestic flights have weakened year over year, and property transactions remain below 2019 levels.

  Comparison

  Multiple indicators are compared with 2025 and 2019, showing that year-over-year improvement does not equal full recovery.

  Risks

  Energy price supply shocks, uneven demand recovery, and policy timing changes.

• China Rates and Liquidity

  The report observes interbank repo rates and policy announcements.

  Strengths

  Repo rates remaining low is supportive of stable funding conditions.

  Weaknesses

  Low rates may also reflect the need for policy support because real-economy demand is still weak.

  Comparison

  The gap between the 30-year government bond yield and rental yield has narrowed significantly versus before 2023.

  Risks

  Inflation pressure, expectations of policy tightening, or external shocks could alter the rate environment.

• Energy and Chemicals

  The report emphasizes the supply shock from higher energy prices and shows changes in fuel, imported crude oil, naphtha, sulfuric acid, and other prices.

  Strengths

  Rising prices may benefit some upstream resource and energy-related assets.

  Weaknesses

  They create cost pressure for downstream manufacturing, transportation, and consumption.

  Comparison

  After March 2026, multiple energy-chain price indices were significantly above the 2025 benchmark.

  Risks

  Volatile oil prices, imported inflation, and margin compression.

• China Property-Related Assets

  The report tracks housing market activity using primary and secondhand home transaction volumes.

  Strengths

  Both primary and secondhand home transactions were above last year’s level in late May.

  Weaknesses

  Primary home transactions remain well below 2019 levels, making the recovery foundation unstable.

  Comparison

  Secondhand home transactions recovered more strongly than primary home transactions, and the 2026 trend differs in phases from 2025.

  Risks

  Insufficient demand recovery, policy support falling short of expectations, and pressure on home prices and developer credit.

Key data

• Average daily primary home transactions in 30 cities+2.6% year over year as of May 217-day moving average; the report shows a pullback from the prior week, but the level remains above the same period last year and below 2019.
• Average daily secondhand home transactions in 16 cities+7.8% year over year as of May 21Rebounded sharply after the February low and was above the 2025 same-period level on May 21.
• Domestic passenger flights-8.2% year over year as of May 21At one point from February to March 2026, activity was stronger than in 2025, but by May it turned below last year’s level.
• Domestic flight cancellation rateAbout 9.5% on May 21Volatile from April to May, with a notable increase in mid-May.
• Traffic congestion index in major cities+2.7% year over year as of May 20The 7-day moving average shows late May slightly above the same period last year.
• 30-year Chinese government bond yield versus rental yieldBoth were close to around 2% in 2026The long-term government bond yield has fallen since 2023, narrowing the gap with the six-city rental yield considerably.
• Domestic gasoline and diesel prices versus Brent crudeRose markedly after March 2026Brent rebounded sharply from a low in late 2025 to early 2026, and domestic gasoline and diesel prices then rose.
• Selected chemicals and import pricesSulfuric acid, crude oil, and naphtha saw the most notable gainsThe index, with 2025 as 100, shows rising price pressure along the energy chain after March 2026.
• Interbank repo ratesRemained lowThe chart title in the report shows interbank repo rates are still low.

Impact & implications

For investment research, the report suggests that China’s macro activity is not recovering in a one-way fashion: property and urban activity have improved in some areas, air travel remains weak, and rising energy and chemical prices may increase cost pressure for companies, while low repo rates support liquidity conditions. Going forward, high-frequency activity data should be viewed together with policy announcements, credit conditions, and commodity price shocks.

Risks

• Sustained high energy prices could weigh on corporate profits and household consumption.
• Housing transactions have improved year over year but remain below historical normal levels, making the recovery less sustainable.
• A year-over-year decline in air travel may reflect weaker services consumption or travel demand.
• High-frequency data are volatile, and a single week’s change cannot be used to infer a medium-term trend directly.
• Policy announcements and liquidity conditions may change quickly and affect market pricing.

What to watch

• Whether primary and secondhand home transactions continue to stay above last year’s level.
• Whether domestic flight volume and cancellation rates return to normal.
• Whether Brent crude, domestic gasoline and diesel prices, and import price indices continue to rise.
• Whether port container throughput and the city congestion index can maintain resilience.
• The direction of interbank repo rates and new macro policy announcements.