Goldman Sachs weekly tracking of China economic activity: property transactions and flight growth improve, traffic congestion remains weak, and energy prices rise sharply

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' April 2 update on China economic activity and policy tracking, covering four groups of high-frequency indicators: consumption and travel, production and investment, other macro activity, and markets and policy. The report notes that, given the need to monitor more closely the impact of the larger energy supply shock on China’s economic activity, the tracker has been moved to a weekly publication schedule.

Core views

The available material shows that some high-frequency activity indicators in China are improving, but not evenly: new-home transactions are clearly above last year on a year-over-year basis, while existing-home transactions are roughly flat to slightly higher; domestic flight volume is up year over year, but the flight cancellation rate is also higher than last year; traffic congestion in major cities is lower year over year; consumer confidence is improving marginally; and energy-related prices rose noticeably in early 2026. Overall, this looks more like high-frequency monitoring of macro activity than a clear directional investment recommendation.

Analysis framework

The report uses a high-frequency indicator framework, placing data on property transactions, air travel, traffic congestion, consumer confidence, and energy and industrial commodity prices in year-over-year or historical-year comparisons to capture marginal changes in economic activity, household travel, and price shocks.

Methodology notes

• High-frequency macro trackingChina Economic Activity and Policy Tracker

  Weekly high-frequency indicator monitoring

  The report tracks four categories of indicators—consumption and travel, production and investment, other macro activity, and markets and policy—and uses comparisons with historical years or the same period last year to assess changes in economic activity.

• Data methodology noteSwitch in congestion index data source

  Baidu Maps replacing Gaode Maps

  The report notes that starting in 2022 the traffic congestion data source switched from Gaode Maps to Baidu Maps; Baidu congestion data begins in September 2021, the trend is similar to Gaode data, but sample coverage differs, with Gaode covering 100 cities and Baidu covering 98 cities.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China macro assets

  The basic object of observation for macro activity and the policy environment

  Strengths

  Some marginal improvement in property transactions, domestic flight volume, and consumer confidence indicators.

  Weaknesses

  The traffic congestion index remains weak year over year, flight cancellation rates are higher than last year, and the recovery in economic activity is uneven.

  Comparison

  The report uses 2025 or 2019 as the benchmark in multiple places.

  Risks

  Rising energy prices may weigh on corporate costs and household consumption, and data source changes may affect time-series comparability.

• Real estate-related assets

  Changes in demand are reflected through high-frequency data on new-home and existing-home transactions

  Strengths

  Transaction volume for new homes in 30 cities rose 11.4% year over year, and transaction volume for existing homes in 16 cities rose slightly by 0.2% year over year.

  Weaknesses

  The improvement in existing-home transactions is very small and cannot by itself confirm a sustained recovery.

  Comparison

  Compared with the same period in 2025 and 2019 curves.

  Risks

  Short-term fluctuations in transaction volume may be affected by holidays, policy changes, and base effects.

• Energy and industrial commodity-related assets

  Energy supply shocks and price changes are an important backdrop for the report’s weekly publication

  Strengths

  Rising prices can support revenue for parts of the energy chain.

  Weaknesses

  High energy prices may push up downstream costs and affect demand.

  Comparison

  The charts place Chinese gasoline and diesel prices alongside Brent crude prices on the same time axis.

  Risks

  Rapid fluctuations in oil and refined product prices may heighten macro uncertainty.

Key data

• Average daily transaction volume for new homes in 30 citiesYear-over-year +11.4% on April 1, 20267-day moving average, change versus the same period in 2025.
• Average daily transaction volume for existing homes in 16 citiesYear-over-year +0.2% on April 1, 20267-day moving average, change versus the same period in 2025.
• Domestic passenger flightsYear-over-year +3.2% on April 1, 2026Unit is thousand flights, change versus the same period in 2025.
• Domestic flight cancellation rate2.9 percentage points higher on April 1, 2026 than in 2025The chart footnote indicates the difference relative to 2025.
• Traffic congestion index in major citiesYear-over-year -4.2% on March 31, 20267-day moving average, based on the Baidu Maps methodology.
• Consumer confidenceThe official consumer confidence index edged up in February, and Morning Consult consumer confidence rose over the past weekFrom the chart title description.
• Energy pricesGasoline, diesel, and Brent prices rose noticeably from early 2026 through MarchThe chart shows Chinese gasoline and diesel prices and Brent crude prices rising rapidly after early 2026.

Impact & implications

These high-frequency indicators are useful for assessing China’s short-term economic momentum. Improvements in property transactions and flight volumes may point to some recovery in demand and travel activity, but weaker traffic congestion, a higher cancellation rate, and rapidly rising energy prices suggest that the recovery in economic activity still faces structural divergence and cost shocks.

Risks

• Energy supply shocks may continue to affect China’s economic activity and corporate costs.
• High-frequency indicators are diverging, and improvement in a single indicator does not necessarily mean the overall economic trend has reversed.
• The traffic congestion data source changed starting in 2022, and changes in sample coverage may affect historical comparability.
• The report is based on currently available public information, and the disclosure notes indicate that relevant information, views, estimates, and forecasts may change.

What to watch

• Whether subsequent weekly consumption and travel indicators continue to improve.
• Whether new-home and existing-home transaction volumes can remain above or near the same period last year.
• Whether domestic flight volume improvement is accompanied by a decline in cancellation rates.
• Whether the traffic congestion index in major cities recovers to last year’s level.
• Whether official and Morning Consult consumer confidence continues to rise.
• Whether Brent, Chinese gasoline, and diesel prices remain elevated.
• Whether market and policy indicators further respond to the energy shock and changes in economic activity.