China merchandise trade growth in August 2026 Report Interpretation

Overview

This macro trade update examines China’s August 2026 merchandise trade data. Nomura concludes that trade growth remained strong and accelerated modestly, driven chiefly by unusually large semiconductor price effects and AI-related electronics trade, while destination-level performance and policy tensions created important differences beneath the headline figures.

Core views

China’s exports grew 25.0% year on year in August, accelerating from 23.9% in July and broadly matching expectations, versus consensus of 25.9% and Nomura’s 22.2% forecast. Imports rose to 28.2% from 27.5%, below consensus expectations of 31.0% and Nomura’s 29.1% forecast. The trade surplus widened to USD119.1bn from USD112.3bn, becoming the second-highest monthly reading on record. Nomura expects import and export growth momentum to persist in coming months, with the semiconductor supercycle remaining the central driver. The report’s principal argument is that the semiconductor cycle is increasingly price-led rather than volume-led. Integrated-circuit export value growth rose to a fresh cycle high of 130.6% year on year in August from 116.8% in July, even as volume growth turned negative at -8.0% from 1.9%. This produced an implied price contribution of 149.7 percentage points, up from 112.6 points in July and above the prior June peak of 123.3 points. Nomura argues that these extraordinary semiconductor price effects have not yet shown signs of peaking. This price-driven chip cycle had a large influence on aggregate exports. ICs contributed 7.2 percentage points to August export growth, up from 6.5 points in July and equal to 28.8% of headline growth. Automatic data processing equipment and components grew 77.0%, its second consecutive monthly acceleration, and added another 4.1 points. Together, AI-related exports contributed 11.3 points, or 45.2%, of total export growth. Their contribution rose 1.3 points while headline export growth increased only 1.1 points, meaning AI-related products accounted for more than the full acceleration in exports during August. Mobile-phone export growth also rose to 29.8% from 27.1%, which the report attributes to price effects from rising input costs. The same dynamic was stronger on the import side. IC import value growth accelerated to a cycle high of 83.6% from 71.1%, while IC import-volume growth eased to 6.7% from 8.4%. ICs alone contributed 13.6 percentage points to total import growth, or 48.2%, versus 11.9 points and 43.3% in July. Imports from South Korea rose 108.1% year on year, the first reading above 100%, which Nomura links to booming semiconductor trade across the regional supply chain. By contrast, non-oil ordinary import growth slowed to 23.2% from 27.6%, and processing-and-assembly import growth edged down to 45.5% from 46.8%. Commodity imports showed Beijing’s continued caution over elevated oil prices. Crude-oil import value growth weakened to -8.8% from -4.6%, while volume growth remained deeply negative at -23.4%, little changed from -24.3%. Nomura interprets this as reluctance to rebuild crude-oil imports while prices remain high. Other commodity volumes were mixed: coal imports fell 1.5% after growing 20.0% in July; soybean imports rose 0.3% after a 0.2% decline; iron-ore growth eased marginally to 3.2%; and copper import volumes remained negative but improved to -11.2% from -12.5%. Export performance varied significantly by destination. Growth to the US jumped to 34.9% from 17.1%, largely because August 2025 had a low base of -33.2%, while imports from the US rose to 18.9% from 15.4%. China’s August trade surplus with the US reached USD29.4bn, above USD20.3bn in August 2025. Nomura notes that weak US-bound exports in the second half of 2025 should continue to support base effects in the second half of 2026. It also notes that new Section 301 tariffs announced on 23 July would raise US tariffs on China by a net 2.5 percentage points, while a reported additional 7.5% overcapacity tariff, if implemented, would return the rate to 32%. Exports to the EU slowed sharply to 6.8% from 16.2%, while imports from the EU were nearly flat at 0.7% after -1.4% in July. China’s August trade surplus with the EU widened to USD32.1bn from USD28.9bn a year earlier. The report notes that the 2025 annual surplus had reached USD292bn, 18.1% above 2024, and that its pace accelerated to 23.1% year on year in the first eight months of 2026. Against this backdrop, the EU trade chief warned of harsher measures and potential market closure if talks did not produce results by October. Nomura views the approaching deadline as important for both EU-China relations and China’s wider export outlook. Elsewhere, export growth to South Korea accelerated to 49.9%, supported by the global AI and semiconductor cycle, while growth to Japan slowed to 8.1% amid lingering China-Japan tensions. ASEAN growth remained high at 30.7%, though below July’s 38.5%. Based on growth in the first seven months, Nomura estimates that China’s 2026 exports to ASEAN could reach roughly USD840bn if the annual rate matches that period, nearly double projected exports to the US. Exports also accelerated to Russia, Brazil and India, and growth to Africa and Latin America strengthened.

Analysis framework

Nomura compares August trade growth with July, consensus expectations, its own forecasts, and prior-year bases. It breaks trade down by product, destination, import type, and commodity volume, with particular focus on separating semiconductor value growth into price and volume effects and measuring product contributions to aggregate trade growth.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisVolume-price decomposition

  Value-volume decomposition of integrated-circuit trade growth

  The report compares IC value and volume growth to infer the contribution from prices. The widening gap between rapidly rising value growth and weak or negative volume growth is used to argue that semiconductor prices, rather than shipment volumes, are driving the trade cycle.

• Industry AnalysisUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Transmission

  Regional semiconductor supply-chain transmission

  The report links China’s IC and AI-related trade strength with sharply higher imports from South Korea, interpreting both as effects of a booming semiconductor trade cycle across the regional supply chain.

Key data

• China export growth25.0% y-o-y in August 2026Up from 23.9% in July; consensus was 25.9% and Nomura forecast 22.2%.
• China import growth28.2% y-o-y in August 2026Up from 27.5% in July; below consensus of 31.0% and Nomura forecast of 29.1%.
• Trade surplusUSD119.1bnUp from USD112.3bn in July and the second-highest monthly reading on record.
• Integrated-circuit export growth130.6% y-o-y in value terms; -8.0% in volume termsValue growth rose from 116.8%, while volume growth fell from 1.9%; implied price contribution was 149.7 percentage points.
• AI-related export contribution11.3 percentage pointsICs contributed 7.2 points and ADP equipment 4.1 points, together representing 45.2% of total export growth.
• Integrated-circuit import growth83.6% y-o-y in value termsUp from 71.1%; ICs contributed 13.6 percentage points, or 48.2%, of total import growth.
• Crude-oil import volume growth-23.4% y-o-yLittle changed from -24.3% in July, indicating continued caution toward oil imports at elevated prices.
• Export growth to the EU6.8% y-o-yDown from 16.2% in July amid escalating China-EU trade tensions.

Impact & implications

Nomura’s findings imply that China’s headline trade resilience is heavily concentrated in semiconductors and AI-related electronics, with price effects playing a more important role than real shipment growth. This concentration supports near-term trade momentum but leaves the outlook sensitive to chip-price dynamics, elevated oil prices, and trade-policy developments with the EU and US.

Risks

• Elevated crude-oil prices may continue to restrain China’s crude-import rebuilding.
• Failure of EU-China trade talks to produce concrete results by October could lead to harsher EU measures or potential market closure.
• A reported additional 7.5% US overcapacity tariff, if implemented, would raise the tariff burden on China.

What to watch

• Whether semiconductor price effects continue to rise or begin to peak.
• The October deadline for EU-China trade talks and any resulting EU measures.
• Whether the reported additional US overcapacity tariff is implemented.
• Whether elevated crude-oil prices continue to limit China’s oil-import recovery.