China’s June exports and imports far exceeded expectations, with AI-related semiconductors still the core driver

Overview

This report analyzes China’s June 2026 import and export data. Nomura believes that both exports and imports in June far exceeded expectations, and the trade surplus further expanded to a historical high. On the surface, foreign trade momentum strengthened significantly; however, the report emphasizes that the main source of nominal growth was not broad-based real volume expansion, but rather price effects in electronic products such as AI-related semiconductors and automatic data processing equipment, as well as base effects and front-loading factors in trade with certain regions.

Core views

The core views are as follows: First, the global upcycle in AI technology continues to boost semiconductor trade, with integrated circuit value growth far outpacing volume growth, making price contribution the key factor behind stronger exports and imports. Second, the export destination mix has diverged: exports to the United States slowed due to base effects but remained elevated, while export acceleration to the EU, ASEAN, India, and Africa was more pronounced. Third, on the import side, commodities excluding oil products and AI-related products jointly supported growth, while crude oil import volumes continued to contract sharply. Fourth, while the record trade surplus supports external demand readings, it may also intensify trade frictions between China and Europe and between China and the United States.

Analysis framework

The report uses a macro trade data decomposition approach, analyzing the sources of export and import growth by product category, trading partner, and value-versus-volume dimensions, and compares contribution across key items such as integrated circuits, automatic data processing equipment, automobiles, crude oil, coal, iron ore, copper, and agricultural products.

Methodology notes

• Macro trade analysisDecomposition of export and import year-on-year growth

  Break down foreign trade growth by product and region

  By comparing year-on-year growth across different products, trading partners, and trade modes, the report identifies the main sources contributing to changes in total exports and total imports.

• Price-volume analysisDifference between value growth and volume growth

  Identification of price effects

  The report compares value growth and volume growth for products such as integrated circuits, and believes that the widening gap between the two indicates that nominal trade growth is mainly driven by rising prices.

• Regional comparisonExport comparison between developed markets and emerging markets

  Destination mix analysis

  The report compares export growth to destinations such as the United States, the EU, Japan, South Korea, ASEAN, India, and Africa to assess the sources of external demand and trade friction pressure.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China macro and RMB assets

  A wider trade surplus and better-than-expected exports help improve growth expectations.

  Strengths

  Exports, imports, and the trade surplus were all clearly stronger than expected, showing that external demand and some import demand were relatively strong in the short term.

  Weaknesses

  Growth is highly dependent on semiconductor prices, base effects, and front-loaded exports, with real volume momentum weaker than nominal data suggest.

  Comparison

  Compared with May, both export and import growth accelerated further in June, and the trade surplus widened significantly.

  Risks

  Escalating trade frictions, tariff changes, and falling AI hardware prices could weaken subsequent data.

• Semiconductor and AI hardware chain

  The report views AI-related products as the absolute core driver of June foreign trade.

  Strengths

  Integrated circuit export value rose 122.3%, import value rose 72.3%, and exports of automatic data processing equipment continued to maintain high growth.

  Weaknesses

  Volume growth was clearly weaker than value growth, indicating that price factors dominate and that real demand expansion still needs further verification.

  Comparison

  Semiconductors contributed more to both exports and imports than most traditional categories, making them the most prominent structural highlight in this period.

  Risks

  Falling chip prices, cooling AI capital expenditure, or supply chain policy changes could cause nominal growth to fall back quickly.

• Oil, gas, and energy commodities

  Contracting crude oil imports dragged on imports, while import volumes of other commodities improved somewhat.

  Strengths

  Import volumes of some commodities such as coal, iron ore, and soybeans rebounded in June.

  Weaknesses

  Crude oil import volumes fell 41.3% y-o-y, indicating that purchasing was restrained under a high-price environment.

  Comparison

  Compared with May, the decline in crude oil import volumes widened, while non-oil commodities such as coal and iron ore improved.

  Risks

  Energy price fluctuations and policy-driven procurement adjustments may continue to affect import readings.

• Automobile and EV export chain

  Auto exports were the most important export driver after AI-related products.

  Strengths

  Exports of automobiles and chassis rose 69.5% y-o-y, while auto parts exports rose 19.0% y-o-y, reflecting support from global EV demand.

  Weaknesses

  Auto exports may face overseas trade barriers and intensifying competition.

  Comparison

  Auto export growth accelerated significantly from 39.3% in May to 69.5% in June.

  Risks

  Policy restrictions on Chinese EVs in the EU and other markets may affect sustainability.

Key data

• June export growth27.0% y-o-yIn USD terms, significantly above the market consensus expectation of 19.0% and Nomura’s forecast of 16.2%; May was 19.4%.
• June import growth36.0% y-o-yAbove the market consensus expectation of 26.1% and Nomura’s forecast of 26.2%; May was 27.4%.
• June trade surplusUSD125.6bnAbove May’s USD105.4bn and the highest monthly level in history.
• Integrated circuit export value growth122.3% y-o-yMay was 111.0%; volume growth was -0.4%, indicating an extremely high price contribution.
• Integrated circuit contribution to exports6.5 percentage pointsAccounting for about 24.1% of total export growth, making it one of the main drivers of June exports.
• AI-related export contribution9.4 percentage pointsComposed of 6.5 percentage points from integrated circuits and 2.9 percentage points from automatic data processing equipment.
• Integrated circuit import value growth72.3% y-o-yMay was 68.0%; volume growth rose to 6.6%.
• Integrated circuit contribution to imports11.9 percentage pointsAccounting for about 32.9% of total import growth.
• Export growth to the United States15.0% y-o-yFell sharply from 37.3% in May, but still remained in double-digit growth.
• Export growth to the EU18.6% y-o-yMay was 7.3%, reflecting that trade imbalances with Europe may continue to trigger frictions.
• Export growth to ASEAN36.8% y-o-yMay was 24.7%, with growth in emerging market destinations generally faster than in developed markets.
• Crude oil import volume growth-41.3% y-o-yMay was -29.0%, dragging import growth by about 0.6 percentage points.

Impact & implications

The report’s asset implications are more structural than broadly optimistic. At the macro level, the trade data support China’s growth and current account performance in the short term; at the industry level, the AI computing power chain, semiconductors, automatic data processing equipment, and auto exports continue to benefit from global demand and rising prices. However, if growth mainly comes from prices rather than volumes, the true strength of external demand may be overstated by nominal data. At the same time, a wider trade surplus and faster export growth to Europe may raise the risk of trade frictions in the second half of the year.

Risks

• A decline in prices of semiconductors and AI-related products could lead to a slowdown in nominal export and import growth.
• An expanding trade surplus with the EU could intensify China-EU trade frictions.
• New US tariffs or changes in trade policy could disrupt exports to the United States in the second half of the year.
• Some exports to the United States may have been affected by front-loaded shipments, creating the risk of payback later.
• The divergence between export value growth and volume growth may overstate the true strength of external demand.
• The sharp contraction in crude oil import volumes reflects that energy procurement is quite sensitive to prices and policy.

What to watch

• Changes in US tariff policy and Section 301-related arrangements in the second half of the year.
• Whether China-EU trade frictions will intensify further due to export imbalances.
• Whether the gap between integrated circuit price growth and volume growth will narrow.
• Whether the contribution of AI-related exports can continue to remain high.
• Whether accelerated exports to emerging markets such as ASEAN, India, and Africa can be sustained.
• Changes in import volumes of commodities such as crude oil, coal, iron ore, and copper.
• Whether automobile and EV exports can continue to maintain high growth.