Global commodities markets: Gold rose as softer oil eased inflation concerns, while copper gained on China demand signals.

Overview

This UBS daily note summarizes overnight moves across bulk commodities, base and precious metals, energy, strategic minerals and selected currencies. Its central message is that lower oil prices helped gold, China demand supported copper and iron ore, and several energy-transition mineral prices weakened.

Core views

UBS reports that gold rose 0.8% to US$4,376.91/oz, while Brent slipped 0.2% to US$103.87/bbl and WTI fell 0.1% to US$92.05/bbl. The note attributes gold's gain to lower oil prices easing inflation concerns. Brent weakened after China reportedly asked Iran to limit Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities. In bulk commodities, iron ore gained 0.7% to US$96.65/dmt, which UBS links to higher-than-expected hot-metal output. Metallurgical coal fell 1.0% to US$277.90/t, while Newcastle thermal coal was unchanged at US$148.56/t. Copper rose 0.5% to US$6.61/lb as China demand signals offset uncertainty around US tariffs. UBS separately notes that LME copper had largely recovered the sell-off triggered by US tariff delays on 10 September, with three-month prices holding above US$14,000/t. Investors remain structurally constructive on the medium-term copper outlook, but UBS says near-term sentiment is nervous at prevailing levels because of tariff tail risks and debate over how tight the underlying copper market will be in 2027. Strategic-mineral pricing was softer: lithium hydroxide fell 1.8% to US$16,000/t and spodumene 6% declined 2.1% to US$1,825/t, while lithium carbonate was unchanged at US$17,300/t. In UBS's China EV and Battery monthly update, August NEV wholesale volume reached 1.5m units, up 4% month on month and 18% year on year, lifting wholesale EV penetration to 64%, up 12 percentage points year on year. Domestic brands recorded 74% NEV penetration, versus 53% for luxury brands and 16% for joint-venture brands. BEVs gained 5.8 percentage points of share year on year, while PHEVs and EREVs lost 4.6 and 1.2 percentage points respectively.

Analysis framework

UBS combines a daily cross-commodity price table with concise catalyst-based commentary. It links individual market moves to near-term supply, demand, geopolitical and policy developments, then supplements the daily observations with focused research updates on copper and China EV and battery trends.

Key data

• GoldUS$4,376.91/oz+0.8% on the day; UBS links the rise to lower oil prices easing inflation concerns.
• Brent oilUS$103.87/bbl-0.2% on the day; +9.1% month to date and +70.8% year to date.
• CopperUS$6.61/lb+0.5% on the day; +2.0% month to date and +16.8% year to date.
• Iron oreUS$96.65/dmt+0.7% on the day; supported by higher-than-expected hot-metal output.
• Spodumene 6%US$1,825/t-2.1% on the day and -21.2% month to date.
• China NEV wholesale volume1.5m unitsAugust volume rose 4% month on month and 18% year on year; wholesale EV penetration reached 64%.

Impact & implications

The note portrays a mixed commodity backdrop: softer oil provided relief to inflation-sensitive gold, China-linked demand underpinned copper and iron ore, and lithium markets remained weak. For copper, UBS distinguishes structural medium-term optimism from more cautious near-term sentiment driven by tariff and 2027-tightness uncertainty.

Risks

• US tariff tail risks may weigh on near-term copper sentiment.
• The extent of underlying copper-market tightness in 2027 remains uncertain.

What to watch

• Developments in US tariff policy affecting copper.
• Evidence on copper-market tightness heading into 2027.
• China demand signals and hot-metal output.
• Oil-market developments related to attacks on Saudi oil facilities.