Report Interpretation

Overview

Goldman Sachs reviews Tesla’s 3Q26 delivery trajectory, regional registration data and consumer-demand indicators. It lowers near-term delivery and earnings assumptions but retains a Neutral rating and unchanged $360 target price.

Core views

Goldman Sachs believes Tesla’s 3Q26 vehicle deliveries are tracking below both its prior expectation and Visible Alpha consensus. It cuts its estimate to 435K from 490K, versus consensus of 456K, after reviewing monthly and weekly sales data across China, the US and Europe. All three core regions appear slower than previously expected, although stronger year-on-year sales in some China-export markets, including Southeast Asia, South America and Australia, should partly mitigate the weakness. The regional evidence is uneven but generally soft. In the US, deliveries through August were down in the high-20% range year on year according to Motor Intelligence; Goldman Sachs assumes a roughly 20–30% decline, partly reflecting a difficult comparison after EV pre-buying ahead of the 3Q25 end of the IRA EV tax credit. European registrations through August were down about 40% year on year, although countries with September daily data showed a better start to the month, with month-to-date registrations up about 6%; the firm expects European 3Q deliveries to decline 25–30% year on year. In China, CPCA data through August indicated an approximately 20% year-on-year decline, with sales assumed to fall in the high teens for 3Q after modest September improvement from the Model Y Performance launch and possible incentives. South Korea and Australia showed strong year-on-year sales through August, but the firm assumes other-region sales are roughly flat sequentially in 3Q. The report places this weakness in the context of Tesla’s regional exposure. Goldman Sachs estimates that the US represented a mid-30% share of 2025 deliveries, China about 38%, Europe 15%, and other geographies about 10%. Including non-automotive activities, Tesla’s 2025 revenue exposure was 50% US, 22% China and 28% other geographies, including Europe. Consumer surveys provide a mixed demand read-through: Tesla’s scores are high and stable in China, lower but improving in the US, and mixed in Europe. For 4Q26, Goldman Sachs expects seasonal support, the Model Y L ramp in the US and Europe, and possible FSD-driven demand to improve deliveries sequentially. Its 4Q26 forecast falls to 475K from 515K but remains above the 462K consensus estimate. The firm cuts its 2026 delivery forecast to 1.75 million from 1.84 million, matching Visible Alpha consensus, while maintaining 2027 and 2028 estimates of 1.915 million and 2.000 million, respectively, versus consensus of 1.87 million and 2.11 million. Model Y L US lead times extending into 2027 may partly reflect constrained supply from a new launch, while China’s Performance variant has more normal two-to-six-week lead times; the variants’ ability to stimulate demand is a key issue. The report also discusses the planned October 1 Roadster unveiling. Goldman Sachs views the product as primarily a technology and brand showcase rather than a material unit-volume driver, because shipping timing remains unclear after years of delays and the historical $250K price point is expected to constrain absolute demand. Lower 2026 deliveries and slightly lower second-half automotive margins drive cuts to EPS including stock-based compensation: 2026/27/28 estimates fall to $0.79/$1.85/$2.45 from $1.00/$2.00/$2.55. The revisions also incorporate lower Energy margins in 2H26 and 2027 following Tesla’s 2Q commentary, plus a higher 2Q-period-end share count from the 10-Q. EPS excluding stock-based compensation is now forecast at $1.68/$2.65/$3.25 for 2026/27/28. Despite these changes, Goldman Sachs retains its Neutral rating and $360 12-month target, applying 150x to updated Q5–Q8E EPS including stock-based compensation, with the valuation timeframe adjusted because 3Q is nearly complete.

Analysis framework

Goldman Sachs combines regional sales and registration data with consumer surveys and company product developments to update delivery assumptions. It translates revised delivery, margin, Energy-margin and share-count assumptions into EPS forecasts, then maintains its target price using a 150x multiple on updated Q5–Q8E EPS including stock-based compensation.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisSupply-demand framework

  Regional delivery, registration and consumer-demand tracking

  The report uses regional sales, registration and survey indicators to assess Tesla demand and derive quarterly delivery forecasts.

• Valuation methodsP/E and PEG Valuation

  Price target based on 150x updated Q5–Q8E EPS including stock-based compensation

  Goldman Sachs values Tesla by applying an earnings multiple to its updated forward EPS estimate.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Tesla Inc. (TSLA)

  Primary covered company; weaker regional demand drives lower near-term delivery and EPS forecasts.

  Strengths

  Potential 4Q seasonal improvement, Model Y L ramp, Model Y Performance launch, FSD demand potential, and stronger sales in selected export markets.

  Weaknesses

  Weak US, European and Chinese delivery trends; lower expected automotive and Energy margins.

  Comparison

  3Q26 delivery forecast of 435K is below Visible Alpha consensus of 456K; 4Q26 forecast of 475K is above consensus of 462K.

  Risks

  Vehicle price cuts, EV competition, tariffs, policy changes, slower EV demand, execution delays and margin pressure.

Key data

• 3Q26 deliveries forecast435KReduced from 490K; below Visible Alpha consensus of 456K.
• 4Q26 deliveries forecast475KReduced from 515K but above consensus of 462K.
• 2026 deliveries forecast1.75 millionReduced from 1.84 million; equal to Visible Alpha consensus.
• 2027/2028 deliveries forecast1.915 million / 2.000 millionMaintained; Visible Alpha consensus is 1.87 million / 2.11 million.
• EPS including SBC, 2026/27/28$0.79 / $1.85 / $2.45Reduced from $1.00 / $2.00 / $2.55.
• Price target$360.00Unchanged; based on 150x updated Q5–Q8E EPS including SBC.

Impact & implications

The report’s near-term outlook is constrained by broad weakness in Tesla’s largest delivery regions and lower expected automotive and Energy margins. Goldman Sachs nevertheless expects sequential 4Q26 delivery improvement and sees Model Y variants and FSD as potential demand supports, while retaining a Neutral view because the unchanged target is close to the reported share price.

Risks

• Downside risks include larger-than-expected vehicle price reductions, intensified EV competition, greater tariff effects and adverse government-policy changes.
• Other downside risks include slower EV demand, delays in FSD or 4680-related capabilities, key-person and internal-control risks, margin pressure, and operational risks from Tesla’s vertical integration.
• Upside risks include faster EV adoption or Tesla share gains, a stronger macro environment for vehicle sales, earlier product launches, earlier or larger AI-product impacts, and smaller-than-expected tariff effects.

What to watch

• Whether Model Y L and Model Y Performance variants improve demand; US Model Y L lead times currently extend into 2027 while China Performance lead times are two to six weeks.
• Fourth-quarter delivery recovery from normal seasonality, Model Y L ramp-up and FSD demand.
• The timing of Roadster shipments after the planned October 1 unveiling and whether it remains primarily a technology and brand showcase.
• Regional sales and registration trends, especially in the US, Europe and China.