Goldman Sachs maintains Buy on Xiaomi, tracking SkyNomad SUV launch and AI progress

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' company research update on Xiaomi Corp. (1810.HK), centered on the SkyNomad N70/N90 filing, upcoming third-quarter catalysts, NEV sales capacity, and MiMo LLM progress. The report maintains a Buy rating and views Xiaomi as still in the early stage of multi-year ecosystem expansion, benefiting from the "Human x Car x Home" strategy, consumer endpoint connectivity, EV supply-chain involvement, and improving AI capabilities.

Core views

Goldman Sachs' core views include: first, SkyNomad, as Xiaomi's second NEV series, is positioned as a smart, configurable, and spacious SUV that may cover more use cases beyond family and commercial travel and complement SU7/YU7, which emphasize driving dynamics; second, longer pure-electric range, configurable cockpit, and scenario designs for camping, meeting and workstation use help attract ICE replacement and higher-end SUV users; third, SkyNomad is expected to use N70 as a volume anchor and expand into a wider price band through N90 and premium configurations; and fourth, MiMo LLM has made progress in API calls, Token usage, inference cost, and high-throughput pricing, with the AI commercialization path spanning To-C, To-B, and the physical world.

Analysis framework

The report combines product catalysts, comparable models, TAM estimation, sales scenarios, AI model usage data, inference cost efficiency, and SOTP valuation. In the automotive section, it compares SkyNomad with SUV peers including Li Auto, Seres AITO, and Zeekr, and estimates potential market space based on Chinese SUV price-band sales; in AI, it tracks MiMo API requests, OpenRouter token share, cache hit rate, throughput, and pricing; in valuation, it models Xiaomi core business, EV business, and holding company discount separately.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsSOTP

  sum-of-the-parts valuation

  Goldman's 12-month target price of HK$40 is based on SOTP: Xiaomi core business uses 16x target 12-month forward EV/NOPAT, Xiaomi EV is valued at US$42bn under DCF, and a 10% holding company discount is applied.

• Valuation methodsDCF

  discounted cash flow

  Xiaomi EV valuation uses the DCF method, with key assumptions disclosed including a 12% WACC and 3% terminal growth rate.

• factorGS Factor Profile

  Goldman Sachs factor profile

  GS Factor Profile compares the stock with Goldman Sachs-covered stocks and industry peers through growth, financial return, valuation multiples, and integrated metrics to provide investment context.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Xiaomi Corp. (1810.HK)

  Research subject; Goldman Sachs maintains Buy and sets a 12-month target price of HK$40.

  Strengths

  Third-largest global smartphone brand, leading consumer AIoT/NEV platform, strong balance sheet, ecosystem integration capability, EV supply-chain scale and cost advantage, and MiMo LLM progress.

  Weaknesses

  EV business is still in expansion phase, manufacturing ramp, gross margin pressure, brand upscaling, and execution of new models still need to be validated.

  Comparison

  SkyNomad N70 is comparable to Li Auto L6/L7 and Seres AITO M6/M7, while N90 is comparable to Li Auto L9, Seres AITO M9, and Zeekr 9X.

  Risks

  Intensifying smartphone competition, weaker-than-expected smartphone/EV margin expansion, pressure on smartphone/EV margins, EV execution below expectations, geopolitical and regulatory uncertainty, weaker macro and soft smartphone/IoT demand, and FX volatility.

• Harbin Dongan Auto Engine (600178.SS)

  Supplier of SkyNomad 1.5T, 112kW range extender; report states Not Covered.

  Strengths

  Participates in the SkyNomad EREV system supply chain.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide standalone investment rating or financial analysis of this company.

  Comparison

  Not applicable; the report mentions it only as supply-chain information.

  Risks

  The report provides no company-level risk assessment for 600178.SS.

Key data

• RatingBuyThe report clearly states, 'We are Buy rated.'
• 12-month target priceHK$40Based on the SOTP valuation method.
• Current priceHK$25.84The disclosure section lists Xiaomi Corp.'s price as HK$25.84.
• Expected SkyNomad launch timingBefore end of August 2026The report expects SkyNomad's official launch before the end of August.
• SkyNomad N70/N90 battery capacityN70: 52/76kWh; N90: 76kWhThe report says this configuration supports 265-370 km of pure-electric range.
• SkyNomad pure-electric range265-370 kmThe report says this is the longest pure-electric range among comparable models.
• SkyNomad delivery forecast2026E 110,000 units; 2027E 240,000 unitsGoldman Sachs model forecast.
• SkyNomad bullish-scenario salesAround 500,000 units in 2027Assumes Xiaomi captures part of mass-market replacement and ICE demand.
• MiMo API request growthUp 27x in June 2026 vs January, and up 6-7x vs AprilDisclosed by the company and estimated by Goldman Sachs.
• Estimated daily MiMo token run-rateAbout 6-7 trillion tokens/dayEstimated by Goldman Sachs based on an approximately linear relationship between API calls and token consumption.
• MiMo daily token volume on OpenRouterAbout 600 billion tokens/day in June 2026Up 4x from April, accounting for about 10% of Goldman Sachs' estimated total MiMo token consumption.
• MiMo-V2.5-Pro-UltraSpeed pricingUS$1.3/US$2.6 per million input/output tokensThe report states this high-throughput model is priced at three times the standard V2.5-Pro and offers 1k TPS throughput.

Impact & implications

If SkyNomad is launched successfully and verifies orders, manufacturing ramp, and product reliability, Xiaomi EV could grow from a sedan/SUV single-point breakthrough into a multi-model, multi-price-band platform, reinforcing market confidence in the scalability of its auto business. MiMo's high token growth, inference cost efficiency, and high-throughput pricing may improve market perception of Xiaomi's AI capabilities and ecosystem monetization, thereby jointly supporting stock narrative repair and valuation repricing.

Risks

• Competition in the global smartphone industry is becoming more intense, and market share gains are weaker than expected.
• Smartphone or EV gross margin pressure is higher than expected.
• Xiaomi's brand upscaling and EV execution are below expectations.
• Geopolitical risk and regulatory uncertainty are escalating.
• Weaker macro environment, with soft smartphone and IoT demand.
• Currency volatility.
• Mechanical durability of SkyNomad's configurable interior and EREV system needs validation.
• The balance between launch-order momentum and manufacturing capacity ramp needs continuous monitoring in the early stages of commercialization.

What to watch

• Whether SkyNomad is officially launched before the end of August as expected.
• SkyNomad N70/N90 pricing, configurations, order volume, and delivery pace.
• Reliability and durability in real-world use of configurable interiors, the EREV system, and large-capacity batteries.
• Depth of in-car integration with Xiaomi's AIoT ecosystem.
• Pre-launch and post-launch PR/marketing strategy and competitor responses.
• Order stability and manufacturing ramp following SU7/YU7.
• MiMo API request volume, token consumption, OpenRouter share, cache hit rate, and V3 architecture progress.
• Monetization conversion and commercialization impact of MiMo-V2.5-Pro-UltraSpeed.