Tesla 2Q26 deliveries may exceed consensus, with strong Europe supporting the Buy rating

Overview

This is a company research event commentary by Deutsche Bank on Tesla Inc., with the core focus on previewing 2Q26 delivery data. The report maintains a Buy rating and believes 2Q26 deliveries are likely to come in above the company's compiled consensus, mainly supported by international markets such as Europe and China.

Core views

The report's core view is that Tesla's 2Q26 deliveries are expected to reach 416k, about 10k above the company's compiled consensus; international markets are the main support, with Europe showing the strongest growth, while order and registration data in China could still support the 2Q estimate; despite a YoY decline in North America, full-year deliveries may still remain flat at about 1.63m even without contributions from major new models.

Analysis framework

The report assesses whether 2Q26 deliveries could beat expectations by comparing its delivery forecast with the company's compiled consensus and buy-side expectations, as well as through regional breakdowns across Europe, China, and North America; for China, it further uses quarter-to-date registration data through May and June order data through June 21 to evaluate whether quarter-end deliveries can be achieved.

Methodology notes

• Delivery previewForecast versus consensus comparison

  Use the report's forecast deliveries against the company's compiled consensus and the buy-side expectation range to judge whether the event outcome may exceed expectations.

  Deutsche Bank forecasts 2Q26 deliveries at 416k, about 10k above the company's compiled consensus, and compares this with the buy-side expectation range of 413k-420k.

• Regional breakdownRegional growth contribution analysis

  Break down delivery growth by Europe, China, and North America to identify sources of growth and regions acting as drags.

  The report believes Europe is close to +40% YoY and is the largest source of YoY growth; China provides additional support; North America declines YoY but improves sequentially.

• Order and registration trackingChina intra-quarter data validation

  Use intra-quarter registrations and monthly order tracking to assess the achievability of China's delivery target.

  China quarter-to-date registrations through May were about 74k, and orders in June through June 21 were about 40k; based on this, the report believes China deliveries can reach the 2Q estimate.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• TSLA.US

  Research target; the report assigns a Buy rating and focuses on the 2Q26 vehicle delivery preview.

  Strengths

  Deliveries are expected to exceed consensus, Europe is nearing 40% year-over-year growth, order and registration data in China continue to support the quarterly estimate, and full-year deliveries may reach about 1.63m.

  Weaknesses

  North America deliveries are expected to decline 21% year over year, growth relies more on international markets, and the report assumes deliveries can be maintained even without contributions from major new models this year.

  Comparison

  The 416k 2Q26 forecast is about 10k above the company's compiled consensus and within the buy-side expectation range of 413k-420k, while also exceeding the report's previous estimate.

  Risks

  Insufficient conversion of remaining quarterly deliveries in China, unsustainable strong demand in Europe, a deeper decline in North America, or full-year sales coming in below expectations without contributions from major new models could all weaken the investment thesis.

Key data

• 2Q26 delivery forecast416kDeutsche Bank's forecast for Tesla's quarterly vehicle deliveries.
• Versus company compiled consensusabout +10kThe report states the forecast is about 10k units above the company's compiled consensus.
• Buy-side expectation range413k-420kThe report states buy-side expectations are within this range.
• Delivery growth+16% QoQ / +8% YoYThe quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year changes corresponding to the 2Q26 delivery forecast.
• Europe year-over-year growthclose to +40% YoYThe report believes Europe is the most prominent regional driver.
• China year-over-year growth+3% YoYThe report believes China provides additional support.
• North America growth-21% YoY / +7% QoQNorth America is still down YoY, but improved sequentially.
• China quarter-to-date registrations through Mayabout 74kUsed to track China's 2Q delivery progress.
• China 2Q delivery estimate133kDeutsche Bank's estimate for China 2Q deliveries.
• China June orders through June 2140kThe report states June orders reached about 40k as of June 21.
• Full-year delivery viewabout 1.63mThe report believes full-year deliveries can be at least flat, without requiring contributions from major new models.

Impact & implications

If reported deliveries come in near or above 416k, the market may interpret this as a sign of resilient demand and improving momentum in international markets, especially helping ease concerns about full-year sales without contributions from major new models. Conversely, if quarter-end deliveries in China fail to materialize or weakness in North America worsens, the delivery-supporting logic behind the Buy rating would be weakened.

Risks

• There remains a gap between China's registrations through May and the 2Q estimate that still needs to be fulfilled by quarter-end deliveries.
• North America is expected to decline 21% year over year, indicating demand pressure remains in the core market.
• The flat full-year delivery assumption depends on continued strength in international markets; if Europe or China weakens, downside risk could emerge.
• The report excerpt does not disclose the target price or detailed valuation assumptions, so the margin of safety in valuation cannot be verified from the current text.
• Deutsche Bank discloses that it has or may have investment banking and non-investment banking service relationships with the company, so potential conflicts of interest should be noted when reading the research view.

What to watch

• Whether Tesla's officially reported 2Q26 deliveries come in near or above 416k.
• Whether the roughly 40% year-over-year strength in Europe deliveries can continue.
• Whether China late-June orders and delivery conversion are sufficient to reach the roughly 133k 2Q estimate.
• Whether the year-over-year decline in North America deliveries narrows and whether the sequential improvement can continue.
• Whether full-year deliveries can be maintained at about 1.63m without contributions from major new models.