Goldman Sachs Raises Tesla Q2 Delivery Forecast to 420k Units; Maintains Neutral Rating

Overview

In this report, Goldman Sachs raises its delivery and earnings forecasts for Tesla's Q2 2026 and full year based on the latest regional sales and registration data. Although near-term fundamental data—particularly in European and Chinese markets—is outperforming consensus, Goldman Sachs has decided to maintain its 'Neutral' rating and 12-month target price of $375, given current valuation levels and a prudent view on the rollout pace of new businesses such as Robotaxi.

Core views

Deliveries and Regional Performance: Goldman Sachs raised its Tesla Q2 2026 delivery forecast from 405k to 420k units (consensus was 400k) and slightly adjusted the full-year forecast to 1.73m units. Regionally, the European market showed the strongest performance, with registration data up 85-90% YoY through May (partially benefiting from a low base last year), and early June data remaining robust. The Chinese market maintained high single-digit YoY growth, while U.S. deliveries through May were still down by over ten percentage points YoY, indicating relative weakness. Consumer Sentiment and Demand: Consumer survey data indicates that Tesla’s Net Promoter Score and purchase intent scores in China remain high and stable, whereas scores in the U.S. and Europe are relatively lower. Goldman Sachs notes that close monitoring of improvements in European consumer sentiment is necessary to assess the sustainability of recent high delivery growth. Additionally, EV search interest in the U.S. had previously risen alongside oil prices but has recently moderated. Energy Storage Business and Valuation: Tesla’s Q2 2026 energy storage deployments are expected to reach 13.9 GWh, up 45% YoY. Using a DCF model, Goldman Sachs estimates that assuming the energy storage business maintains a 5%-15% CAGR and 10%-20% EBIT margins between 2030 and 2040, the implied forward per-share value of this segment ranges from approximately $14 to $63. The ultimate value of the energy storage business will heavily depend on the capacity ramp-up at the Shanghai and Texas Gigafactories and the ability to sustain margins. Earnings Estimates and Rating: Based on revised delivery estimates, Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 EPS forecast (including SBC) from $1.30 to $1.35. Despite positive near-term delivery momentum, the firm maintains a moderate/cautious stance on the scale of Robotaxi deployment in H2 2026. Factoring in valuation, the Neutral rating and $375 target price (based on 150x forward P/E) are maintained.

Analysis framework

The firm employed an analytical framework combining 'bottom-up regional data tracking + consumer sentiment cross-validation + Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation.' First, quarterly delivery models were revised bottom-up by tracking high-frequency monthly/weekly registration and sales data across three core markets: the U.S., China, and Europe. Second, third-party consumer survey data and search trends were incorporated to validate the authenticity and sustainability of end-demand, avoiding reliance solely on lagging sales data. Finally, for valuation purposes, traditional automotive operations were separated from innovative segments like energy storage and AI/autonomous driving. A DCF model was applied to conduct independent scenario analysis for specific segments such as energy storage to derive a comprehensive target price.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Sector Analysis Framework

  Regional High-Frequency Data Tracking and Cross-Validation

  Rather than relying on a single global forecast, the firm disaggregates the global market into core regions such as the U.S., China, and Europe, utilizing local high-frequency data like weekly/monthly registrations for bottom-up aggregation. Concurrently, consumer sentiment survey data is introduced for cross-validation to enhance the accuracy of near-term earnings forecasts.

• Valuation MethodologyDCF Discounted Cash Flow

  DCF Discounted Cash Flow (Applied to SOTP Valuation)

  For companies like Tesla with multiple frontier business lines, the firm adopts a Sum-of-the-Parts approach. Using a DCF model, it sets independent assumptions for revenue growth, margins, and discount rates (WACC) specifically for the energy storage business to calculate its standalone per-share value range, thereby more clearly isolating and quantifying the potential contribution of non-automotive segments.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Tesla (TSLA.US)

  Primary coverage subject; near-term delivery estimates raised but valuation constrained

  Strengths

  Strong deliveries in Europe and China; sustained high growth in energy storage; possesses long-term options in AI and autonomous driving.

  Weaknesses

  Weak domestic U.S. demand; lower brand sentiment among consumers in Europe and the U.S.; extremely high current valuation multiples.

  Risks

  Greater-than-expected price cuts, intensified competition, tariff policy risks, delays in FSD/Robotaxi rollout, key person risk.

Key data

• Q2 2026 Delivery Estimate420k unitsPrevious est. 405k; Consensus 400k
• FY 2026 Delivery Estimate1.73m unitsPrevious est. 1.72m
• FY 2026 EPS Estimate (incl. SBC)$1.35Previous est. $1.30
• Europe QTD Registration YoY Growth85%-90%Through May; partially impacted by low base last year
• Q2 2026 Energy Storage Deployment Estimate13.9 GWh+45% YoY

Impact & implications

The report suggests that Tesla's near-term delivery fundamentals are stronger than pessimistic market expectations, with resilience in European and Chinese markets providing earnings support. However, weak domestic U.S. demand and divergent regional consumer sentiment imply that sustaining high sales growth remains challenging. Furthermore, although the energy storage business exhibits impressive growth and significant long-term optionality, the current stock price already reflects a substantial valuation premium. Until AI-enabled products like Robotaxi achieve large-scale commercialization, upside momentum for the stock may be limited.

Risks

• Vehicle price cuts exceeding expectations, pressuring margins
• Intensified competition in the EV market and slowing demand
• Negative impacts from changes in tariff policies and government regulations
• Delays in the rollout of new products or capabilities such as FSD, 4680 batteries, and Robotaxi
• Key person risk and operational/internal control risks associated with high vertical integration

What to watch

• Whether European consumer sentiment metrics show material improvement to validate the sustainability of delivery growth
• Ramp-up progress of energy storage capacity (e.g., Megapack 3) at Shanghai and Texas Gigafactories
• Actual scale and pace of Robotaxi deployment in H2 2026
• Marginal changes in EV search interest and end-demand in the U.S. market