European warehouse automation and industrial trucks Report Interpretation

Overview

This European Capital Goods report argues that warehouse-automation demand remains healthy despite macro concerns, while easing worries about demand and a prospective recovery in forklift margins could support valuation re-ratings. Barclays favours KION and AutoStore, and retains an Overweight view on Jungheinrich.

Core views

Barclays' central view is that 2Q26 results countered the market concern that macro uncertainty, interest-rate worries and geopolitical risks were materially weakening forklift and warehouse-automation demand. KION's Industrial Trucks & Services unit orders were down only 1% year on year in volume, after allowing for a first-quarter pull-forward effect from price increases, while Jungheinrich's order intake by value was broadly flat. European PMI data, including signs of improvement in Germany, point to stabilisation rather than a full recovery; US demand also appeared to improve from previous levels as destocking eased. Warehouse automation showed clearer growth. Apart from KION's difficult comparison base, major peers reported healthy 2Q order gains: Daifuku +46% year on year, AutoStore +45%, Jungheinrich +27%, Kardex +26% and Geek+ +36%. Barclays expects this growth to continue, supported by customer activity that has not been meaningfully affected by macro conditions or rate expectations. KION should also benefit from easier year-on-year order comparisons in 3Q and 4Q after a high 2Q25 base, while its non-e-commerce business-solutions orders suggest a gradual improvement in demand beyond e-commerce. Forklift competition has been the main negative sector surprise, hurting price and mix. EU forklift imports from China rose about 18% year to date through June, although this partly reflected stronger regional demand, with EMEA truck orders up about 24% year on year in 1Q26. Barclays does not yet see evidence of a severe deterioration in pricing because suppliers have retained some ability to raise prices ahead of inflation. In automation, lower-cost Chinese solutions remain a competitive threat, but Barclays believes AutoStore's formal Amazon partnership validates its technology, while US restrictions on imports of advanced robotics, including AMRs, add uncertainty to Chinese suppliers' US expansion. The Amazon partnership is the key differentiator for AutoStore. Barclays estimates that equipping 20 Amazon centres with roughly 3,000 square metres of AutoStore systems per centre could represent about US$300m of revenue, more than 40% of AutoStore's FY26 revenue guidance; the report stresses that project count, scale, sales mode and timing remain uncertain and that the partnership would likely span several years. It could reduce some system-integrator opportunities, although AutoStore is a small part of KION's IAS sales, and Amazon project margins could be below normal because of direct sales and volume discounts. Nevertheless, strong year-to-date orders, the partnership and a recently announced share buyback improve Barclays' growth and competitive outlook for AutoStore. For the next two quarters, Barclays expects low-single-digit truck-order growth at KION and Jungheinrich and sequential margin improvement from price increases, better utilisation and cost controls. It expects double-digit warehouse-automation order growth in 3Q and 4Q. KION and Jungheinrich should see further margin improvement as revenue scales, while AutoStore may experience quarter-on-quarter moderation as it continues investing in commercial, product and technology capabilities. For FY27, Barclays considers consensus truck-order growth broadly compatible with a low-level macro recovery and the contribution from pricing; it remains above consensus on KION's automation orders and revenue leverage, but below consensus for AutoStore amid ongoing investment assumptions. Barclays retains Overweight on KION with a €64 target price, using a sum-of-the-parts valuation based on 2027E EV/adjusted EBITA multiples of 13x for ITS, 18x for IAS and 13x for Corporate/Others. The resulting group multiple is 14.7x, in line with its historical average. KION's FY26 ITS consensus margin of 9.3% is below midpoint guidance of 9.6% and is viewed as realistic; sequential gains in pricing, volume and cost savings could stabilise earnings expectations. The report also sees KION's system-integrator role as relatively insulated from Chinese competition and notes easier IAS order comparisons in the second half. Jungheinrich remains Overweight with a €39 target price and is described as the cheapest covered stock at 10.5x 2027E EV/adjusted EBITA and 8x 2027E P/E. Its FY26 group margin guidance and consensus are both 6.6%, but the company needs a larger second-half ITS margin improvement than KION—about 1.5 percentage points reported, or about 1 point on a clean basis, versus roughly 0.8 points for KION. Barclays sees similar near-term demand and margin support, but expects possible downward revisions to Jungheinrich's 2030+ revenue and EBIT targets to remain an overhang. AutoStore is upgraded from Equal Weight to Overweight. Barclays raises 2027-28 sales and adjusted EBIT forecasts by about 2%, lifts the target price from NOK18.2 to NOK20.5, and applies 25x 2027E EV/adjusted EBITA, versus 22x previously. The higher multiple is about 0.5 standard deviations above the historical average and reflects the Amazon partnership and stronger industry positioning. Barclays is about 9% and 7% above consensus on AutoStore's 2027E and 2028E orders, respectively, and about 5% and 4% above consensus on revenue. It argues the stock's growth potential is not fully appreciated despite a 36% year-to-date rise, compared with declines of 34% for KION and 25% for Jungheinrich. For a broader re-rating, Barclays says earnings estimates must stop falling. KION and Jungheinrich had each seen year-to-date EPS revisions of more than 20%; these revisions explain about two-thirds of Jungheinrich's share-price decline and about half of KION's. Sequential margin improvement from 3Q is identified as the key proof point. The report keeps the European Capital Goods industry view Neutral.

Analysis framework

Barclays combines 2Q26 operating results, regional demand indicators, order-intake comparisons, company guidance and consensus forecasts to assess demand and margin trajectories. It then compares stock valuations with historical ranges and peer multiples, using segment-level valuation for KION and EV/adjusted EBITA multiples for AutoStore and Jungheinrich.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisSupply-demand framework

  Demand and competitive assessment for forklifts and warehouse automation

  The report uses order intake, PMI indicators, regional demand, customer activity, imports and competitive dynamics to judge whether end-market demand and pricing are stabilising.

• Industry AnalysisVolume-price decomposition

  Order volumes, values, price hikes, mix and margin recovery

  Barclays separates volume demand from pricing and mix effects to explain why orders can remain stable while forklift margins are weak, and why price, utilisation and cost actions could lift margins.

• Valuation methodsSOTP (Sum-of-the-Parts) Valuation

  KION segment-based valuation

  Barclays values KION's ITS, IAS and Corporate/Others businesses separately using 2027E EV/adjusted EBITA target multiples and combines them into a group price target.

• Valuation methodsEV/EBITDA valuation

  Enterprise-value multiple valuation using adjusted EBITA

  For AutoStore and Jungheinrich, Barclays sets price targets by applying 2027E EV/adjusted EBITA multiples referenced to historical trading ranges and peer valuations.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• KION (KGX.DE)

  Preferred exposure to a potential truck-demand and automation-order rebound.

  Strengths

  Leading system-integrator positioning, potential margin improvement, easier IAS order comparisons in 2H26 and compelling valuation.

  Weaknesses

  Higher-than-peer leverage may weigh on valuation.

  Comparison

  Barclays values ITS at 13x and IAS at 18x 2027E EV/adjusted EBITA; current 2027E valuation is cited at 12.5x EV/adjusted EBITA.

  Risks

  Slower macro and warehouse investment, intensifying technology competition, raw-material volatility and supply-chain disruption.

• AutoStore (AUTO.OL)

  Upgraded to Overweight on improved growth and competitive positioning from the Amazon partnership.

  Strengths

  Strong orders, Amazon technology validation, potential US-policy support and share buyback.

  Weaknesses

  Partnership scale, margins and sales model are uncertain; continued commercial, product and technology investment may moderate margins.

  Comparison

  Target valuation rises to 25x 2027E EV/adjusted EBITA from 22x previously.

  Risks

  Slower warehouse investment, competition from shuttle and emerging cubic-storage technologies, patent weakness and raw-material cost volatility.

• Jungheinrich (JUNG_p.DE)

  Maintained Overweight as a low-valuation forklift and warehouse-automation exposure.

  Strengths

  Cheapest covered stock, potential margin recovery and possible upside from warehouse-automation expansion.

  Weaknesses

  Requires a larger second-half ITS margin improvement than KION and may face 2030+ target cuts.

  Comparison

  Trades at 10.5x 2027E EV/adjusted EBITA and 8x 2027E P/E; historically traded at a premium to KION but now trades at a discount.

  Risks

  Extended macro weakness, pricing and margin pressure, slow automation ramp-up, rising competition and failure to realise Storage Solutions synergies.

Key data

• AutoStore 2Q order growth+45% YoYWarehouse-automation order growth in 2Q26.
• Jungheinrich 2Q order growth+27% YoYWarehouse-automation order growth in 2Q26.
• KION FY26 ITS margin consensus9.3%Below 9.6% midpoint guidance; Barclays views it as realistic.
• AutoStore target priceNOK20.5Raised from NOK18.2 alongside an upgrade to Overweight.
• AutoStore Amazon opportunity illustrationc.US$300mIllustrative revenue opportunity assuming 20 centres and 3,000sqm installed per centre.
• KION price target€64Based on a 14.7x implied 2027E group EV/adjusted EBITA multiple.
• Jungheinrich price target€39Based on 13x 2027E EV/adjusted EBITA.

Impact & implications

Barclays believes demand resilience and stabilising macro and earnings expectations can support selected warehouse-automation and forklift stocks after the sector's de-rating. The preferred exposures are KION for valuation and prospective margin sentiment improvement, and AutoStore for growth and competitive positioning; Jungheinrich offers low valuation but carries longer-term target-revision risk.

Risks

• Slower macro conditions and warehouse investment could weaken industrial-truck and warehouse-solution demand, pricing and margins.
• Chinese and other emerging automation technologies could intensify competition and pressure orders and pricing.
• Raw-material cost volatility and supply-chain distortion could increase working-capital needs.
• AutoStore's Amazon partnership has uncertain scale, sales mode and profitability, and Amazon projects may earn lower margins.
• Jungheinrich could face downward revisions to its 2030+ revenue and EBIT targets.

What to watch

• Sequential forklift margin improvement from 3Q, including price, utilisation and cost-control effects.
• 3Q and 4Q warehouse-automation order growth, especially KION's performance against easier comparisons.
• European and German PMIs, interest-rate expectations and evidence of sustained macro stabilisation.
• Details on the number, size, timing and economics of AutoStore projects under the Amazon partnership.
• Chinese forklift imports, US robotics-policy developments and their impact on competitive intensity.
• Whether earnings estimates for KION and Jungheinrich stop being revised downward.