Walt Disney Co. (DIS): Goldman Sachs reiterates Buy on Disney ahead of F4Q26, citing above-consensus earnings and a multiyear Experiences and content investment cycle.

Overview

This F4Q26 preview maintains Goldman Sachs' constructive view of Walt Disney. The report expects an above-consensus quarter, led by Experiences and Sports, and argues that park, cruise, film, streaming and product investments can support a longer-term earnings compounding path.

Core views

Goldman Sachs forecasts F4Q26 adjusted EPS of $1.73, versus Visible Alpha consensus of $1.66, on revenue of $25.43 billion versus $25.14 billion and non-GAAP segment EBIT of $4.93 billion versus $4.85 billion. The forecast incorporates a 53rd week, which the firm estimates will contribute about $600 million of total segment operating income and a 1.5%-2.0% lift to revenue. Segment EBIT is largely unchanged overall, although the quarterly mix shifts toward Experiences and away from Entertainment to reflect the larger 53rd-week benefit to Experiences. Experiences is expected to be the principal F4Q26 contributor, with revenue of $10.06 billion, up 15% year on year, and EBIT of $2.28 billion, up 21%. The report attributes growth to roughly 50% year-on-year cruise stateroom-capacity growth following the launches of Disney Destiny and Disney Adventure, domestic park pricing, stable domestic attendance, cross-selling products such as Lightning Lane Premiere Pass, and new attractions including World of Frozen in Paris. It forecasts reported domestic attendance growth of 9%, or 1.5% on an underlying basis, and domestic per-cap spending growth of 3%. Softer Asian park attendance and the Disney Wonder dry dock partly offset these drivers. Longer term, Goldman Sachs sees Disney's $60 billion F2023-F2033 Experiences capital plan, a targeted 13-vessel cruise fleet by end-2030, and IP-led park additions as supporting volume, yield, fill rates and returns on invested capital. For Entertainment, Goldman Sachs estimates F4Q26 revenue of $11.50 billion and EBIT of $1.26 billion, broadly in line with consensus. It expects pay-1 windows for The Devil Wears Prada 2, Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu, and Toy Story 5, together with domestic and international original launches, to support results. The report also forecasts SVOD revenue of $6.01 billion and EBIT of $690 million, above consensus of $5.86 billion and $680 million, respectively. Password-sharing enforcement, product improvements, price increases and local-content investment are cited as supports, partly offset by supply-driven advertising pressure. Disney's September 23 US price increases raised premium Disney+ and Hulu plans by $2.50 to $21.49 and ad-supported tiers by $0.50 to $12.49; Goldman Sachs views the narrower gap between standalone and bundle pricing as an incentive to bundle. The report frames Disney+ as an expanding membership ecosystem. Planned Spring 2027 merchandise and interactive integration, a FAST channel, a TikTok partnership and a market-specific local-content strategy are intended to improve acquisition and retention. Disney plans to roughly triple local original series over three years. Goldman Sachs also sees the 2027-2028 film slate, including Frozen 3, Incredibles 3, The Bluey Movie, and Star Wars and X-Men releases, as reinforcing a content flywheel across streaming, consumer products and licensing. It notes $50 million of Avengers: Doomsday pre-sales three months before its December release as an indicator of demand. Sports is forecast to generate F4Q26 revenue of $4.48 billion and EBIT of $1.38 billion, both above consensus, with EBIT up 52% year on year in the quarter. Goldman Sachs cites expanded NFL rights, the five-year WWE Premium Live Events agreement beginning in 2026, ESPN bundling with Disney+/Hulu and Fox One, additional live programming for ESPN Unlimited, the NFL Network carriage agreement with Comcast, and the absence of UFC rights-cost amortization. For F2027, Goldman Sachs raises EPS slightly to $7.56, or 8% reported growth and 12% underlying growth excluding the 53rd-week headwind, primarily on lower taxes; segment EBIT remains broadly unchanged at $20.6 billion. It updates quarterly timing for holidays, theatrical releases, dry docks, the Super Bowl and College Football Playoffs, Disney+ investment, and park capex. Across F2026-F2028, consolidated segment EBIT estimates decline by about 1% on average, as lower Entertainment and Experiences operating income more than offsets higher Sports operating income. The firm nevertheless sees Disney as an early-stage, multiyear earnings compounder and estimates a 13% F2025-F2028E EPS CAGR. Goldman Sachs reiterates Buy but reduces its 12-month price target to $140 from $144 on slightly lower EBITDA. The target uses a sum-of-the-parts approach: 11x NTM+1-year EBITDA for Parks and Experiences, 15x for Consumer Products, 4x for Linear Networks, 20x for Content Sales and Licensing, 6x for Sports, and an EV-per-subscriber approach for DTC implying 10x EV/EBITDA.

Analysis framework

Goldman Sachs compares its F4Q26 revenue, EBIT and EPS forecasts with Visible Alpha consensus and company guidance, then builds the outlook by Experiences, Entertainment and Sports. It adjusts quarterly estimates for calendar and content timing, examines operating drivers such as attendance, capacity, pricing and rights costs, and values Disney through a sum-of-the-parts framework using segment-specific multiples and a DTC EV-per-subscriber method.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsSOTP (Sum-of-the-Parts) Valuation

  Sum-of-the-parts valuation

  The report applies different forward EBITDA multiples to Disney's operating segments and values DTC on enterprise value per subscriber, rather than applying one multiple to the entire company.

• Industry AnalysisVolume-price decomposition

  Experiences volume and yield analysis

  The report separates attendance and cruise capacity from pricing and per-cap spending to explain forecast revenue and EBIT growth in Experiences.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Walt Disney Co. (DIS.US)

  Primary covered company; Goldman Sachs expects above-consensus F4Q26 earnings and sees a multiyear investment cycle supporting earnings growth.

  Strengths

  Cruise and park expansion, domestic pricing and attendance, a film pipeline, Disney+ product development, and Sports rights and bundling initiatives.

  Weaknesses

  Cord-cutting exposure, streaming advertising softness, localized-content investment, and softer Asian park attendance.

  Comparison

  F4Q26 adjusted EPS forecast of $1.73 versus Visible Alpha consensus of $1.66; segment EBIT forecast of $4.93 billion versus $4.85 billion consensus.

  Risks

  Cord-cutting, sports-rights cost inflation, streaming competition, consumer-spending weakness, a weak theatrical slate, M&A, regulation or policy changes, higher interest rates and FX.

Key data

• F4Q26 adjusted diluted EPS forecast$1.73Versus Visible Alpha consensus of $1.66; 56% year-on-year growth.
• F4Q26 segment operating income forecast$4.93 billionVersus consensus of $4.85 billion and guidance of $4.9 billion.
• F4Q26 revenue forecast$25.43 billionVersus consensus of $25.14 billion.
• 53rd-week contribution~$600 millionEstimated addition to total segment operating income and a 1.5%-2.0% lift to revenue.
• F2027 adjusted EPS forecast$7.56Up 8% year on year reported, or 12% underlying excluding the 53rd-week headwind.
• F2025-F2028E EPS CAGR13%Goldman Sachs' estimated multiyear earnings-growth trajectory.
• 12-month target price$140Reduced from $144 on slightly lower EBITDA.

Impact & implications

The report argues that near-term earnings strength from Experiences and Sports, together with investments in cruise capacity, parks, content and Disney+, can outweigh headwinds from streaming advertising, localized-content spending and softer Asian park attendance. Goldman Sachs therefore maintains its Buy view despite modest reductions to longer-dated segment EBIT estimates and the target price.

Risks

• Intensified cord-cutting could pressure Disney's linear-network economics.
• Sports-rights cost inflation could weaken Sports profitability.
• Streaming competition and softer SVOD advertising could weigh on direct-to-consumer results.
• An economic slowdown could reduce consumer spending on parks, cruises and other Experiences offerings.
• A weak theatrical slate could undermine Entertainment and the broader content flywheel.
• M&A, unfavorable regulatory or policy reform, higher interest rates and foreign-exchange movements are listed downside risks.

What to watch

• F4Q26 delivery versus the $1.73 EPS, $4.93 billion segment EBIT and $25.43 billion revenue forecasts.
• The magnitude of the 53rd-week contribution to revenue and segment operating income.
• Domestic attendance, per-cap spending, international visitation and Asian park trends.
• Cruise capacity additions, dry-dock disruptions and progress toward the 13-vessel fleet target by end-2030.
• Disney+ pricing, bundle adoption, advertising conditions, password-sharing enforcement and Spring 2027 product integration.
• Film performance and the contribution of the 2027-2028 franchise slate to streaming, licensing and consumer products.
• Sports-rights execution, ESPN bundling and associated cost trends.