Goldman Sachs maintains BUY on Samsung Biologics, expecting resilient 2Q26 earnings supported by FX tailwinds

Overview

This is a Goldman Sachs 2Q26 earnings preview on Samsung Biologics Co. (207940.KS). The report expects the company to release 2Q26 results on July 23, and the core view is that CDMO performance, supported by full utilization at Plants 1-4, early ramp-up at Plant 5, and favorable FX, will keep revenue and net profit at high growth and maintain operating margins in the mid-40s. The report maintains a BUY rating and views the recent share pullback as an opportunity to add.

Core views

Goldman Sachs believes Samsung Biologics' long-term investment case remains intact: existing facilities are running at high utilization, capacity is steadily expanding, and global biopharmaceutical outsourcing demand is stable. In the near term, FX tailwinds can partially offset operational disruption and limit FY26 revenue guidance downside risk; labor strike issues have limited impact on 2Q and may affect 3Q more, with recovery likely afterward. On valuation, the current approximately 31x 12-month forward P/E is significantly below the five-year historical average of around 68x, and the report views it as more attractive relative to long-term growth prospects.

Analysis framework

The report analyzes through the earnings preview, FX sensitivity, capacity utilization and ramp schedule, order visibility, labor disruption impact, relative valuation, and target-price model. On earnings forecasts, the report raised 2026-2028 EPS estimates by +2.9%/+1.0%/+0.6%, mainly reflecting the consolidation of the U.S. facilities and stronger FX tailwinds. On valuation, the 12-month target price is based on 40x 12-month forward P/E.

Methodology notes

• valuation framework12-month forward P/E

  target-price valuation multiple

  The report lowered the 12-month target price from W2,105,000 to W2,000,000, based on 40x 12-month forward P/E; the revision mainly adjusts the multiple for market-cap changes, but still implies meaningful upside.

• factor frameworkGS Factor Profile

  growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite factor comparison

  Goldman Sachs uses the GS Factor Profile to compare a stock’s growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite score against covered peers and sector peers to provide investment context.

• M&A frameworkM&A Rank

  M&A likelihood grading

  The report discloses Samsung Biologics’ M&A Rank as 3 in China & Korea Medtech & Services, indicating a lower probability of being taken over, and it is generally not included in target-price setting.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Samsung Biologics Co. (207940.KS)

  Research coverage name; Goldman Sachs maintains a BUY rating.

  Strengths

  Plants 1-4 remain at high utilization, Plant 5 is beginning to contribute, high USD revenue share creates FX tailwinds, global biopharma outsourcing demand is stable, and recent contract revisions have brought in additional orders.

  Weaknesses

  Plant 5 is still in early ramp phase, labor negotiations could impact 3Q, and valuation still depends on strong earnings growth realization.

  Comparison

  Current ~31x 12-month forward P/E is near Lonza at around 30x, but below its own five-year historical average of about 68x.

  Risks

  Intensifying competition, slower-than-expected capacity ramp, regulatory approval risk, and risks related to corporate governance and cross-shareholdings.

Key data

• RatingBUYGoldman Sachs maintains a Buy view.
• 12-month target priceW2,000,000Reduced from W2,105,000, based on 40x 12-month forward P/E.
• Current priceW1,363,000Price disclosed on the report cover.
• Implied upside46.7%Calculated from target price and current price.
• 2Q26 CDMO revenue forecastW1,314bnThe report expects year-on-year growth of about 30%, roughly in line with Visible Alpha consensus.
• 2Q26 CDMO adjusted net profit forecastW470bnThe report expects year-on-year growth of about 41%, about 7% above Visible Alpha consensus.
• FY26 revenue growth forecast23%Higher than the company’s guidance range of 15%-20% after consolidating U.S. facilities.
• 2026E revenueW5,589.2bnGoldman Sachs forecast, revised up from previous W5,386.2bn.
• 2026E EPSW42,852New Goldman Sachs forecast, above previous W41,633.
• 2026E P/E31.8xForecasted at source-table metric; text refers to about 31x 12-month forward P/E.
• USD/KRW assumption gapabout 1,500 vs management assumption of about 1,400Average 2Q26 FX is about 7% above management embedded assumption.
• Market capW63.1tr / $42.0bnDisclosed in report key data.
• Enterprise valueW62.1tr / $41.4bnDisclosed in report key data.

Impact & implications

The report’s impact on Samsung Biologics shares is modestly constructive: near-term 2Q resilience, FX tailwinds, and incremental orders help ease strike uncertainty; in the medium term, contributions from Plant 5 and U.S. facilities, potential large multi-year contracts, and Plant 6 progress will determine whether profit growth is sustainable. Valuation de-rating makes risk-reward more attractive, but the target-price cut also shows that valuation-multiple assumptions have become somewhat tighter.

Risks

• Competition intensifies from domestic and global peers.
• Capacity ramp proceeds slower than expected, especially for Plant 5, future Plant 6, and U.S. facility integration pace.
• Regulatory risk from multiple drug-approval authorities.
• Corporate governance risks, including litigation and cross-shareholdings.
• If labor negotiations do not progress smoothly, they could cause operational or cost disruption in 3Q.
• If FX moves from tailwind to headwind, it could amplify EBIT volatility.

What to watch

• The 2Q26 earnings call on July 23 at 10:00 am KST / 9:00 am HKT.
• Management's sensitivity commentary on FY26 revenue growth guidance, especially around FX, Plant 5 ramp, and labor costs.
• Progress of labor negotiations and contingency plans.
• The Plant 6 timeline and capital allocation priorities for new models such as ADCs and CGT.
• Order pipeline visibility, including potential large multi-year contracts.
• Early developments on U.S. site-related orders or dual-site manufacturing strategy.
• Whether strike-related profit impact appears in 3Q and how quickly recovery occurs in subsequent quarters.