Live-action Moana stumbles at the box office, but Goldman Sachs maintains its Buy rating on Disney

Overview

This report focuses on the opening-weekend box office performance of Walt Disney Co.'s live-action Moana. The film was released on July 10, 2026, and its opening was significantly below market expectations: approximately $95 million globally, including approximately $43 million domestically and $52 million internationally. Goldman Sachs believes that, against the backdrop of high production and marketing costs, the film's standalone theatrical profitability faces significant challenges and could create a theatrical impairment risk in F4Q26.

Core views

The core view is that, in the short term, the live-action Moana's box office disappointment will reduce expectations for standalone film profitability and may weigh on subsequent monetization through consumer products licensing, PVOD, and home video. Over the medium to long term, Goldman Sachs continues to view theatrical distribution as a key link in the flywheel spanning Disney's content, streaming, consumer products, theme parks, and IP ecosystem. The 2H26 slate is also supported by important releases including The Dog Stars, Hexed, and Avengers: Doomsday. The report has not changed its company estimates and maintains its Buy rating.

Analysis framework

The report uses an event-driven company research framework, comparing the film's opening data with prior market expectations, historical franchise performance, and box office multiples for comparable films. It also estimates theatrical losses by incorporating production costs, global marketing and distribution spending, studio revenue share, and contributions from ancillary revenue. For valuation, it continues to use a sum-of-the-parts approach, applying EBITDA multiples or an EV/subscriber methodology to Disney's different business segments.

Methodology notes

• Box Office Profitability EstimationOpening Box Office to Total Box Office Multiple Method

  Estimate total domestic box office by multiplying domestic opening box office by approximately 3.3x, then estimate global box office using an approximately 1.3x global multiple.

  Referencing the box office multiples of Moana 2 and Snow White, Goldman Sachs estimates total domestic box office for the live-action Moana at approximately $142 million and global box office at approximately $327 million.

• Cost-Benefit AnalysisTheatrical Profit Bridge

  Combine global box office, studio revenue share, production costs, global P&A spending, and ancillary revenue contributions to estimate standalone film profitability.

  Assuming a 50% global studio revenue share, approximately $250 million in production costs, approximately $145 million in global marketing and distribution spending, and approximately $100 million in ancillary revenue contributions, the report estimates a theatrical loss of approximately $132 million.

• Valuation MethodSum-of-the-Parts Valuation

  Value each Disney business segment separately and then sum the results to derive the target price.

  The $163 target price is based on 11x NTM+1Y EBITDA for Parks and Experiences, 15x for Consumer Products, 4x for Linear Networks, 20x for Content Sales and Licensing, 6x for Sports, and an EV/subscriber methodology for DTC.

• Factor FrameworkGS Factor Profile

  Compare the individual stock with the coverage universe and industry peers across growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite factors.

  The report discloses that the GS Factor Profile uses Goldman Sachs forecast data to conduct standardized percentile comparisons for growth, ROE/ROCE/CROCI, P/E, EV/EBITDA, EV/FCF, and other metrics.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Walt Disney Co. common equity (DIS.N)

  Covered security; BUY rating maintained.

  Strengths

  Deep IP assets; theatrical releases can amplify Disney's content and consumer products flywheel; the 2H26 slate remains supported by catalysts including The Dog Stars, Hexed, and Avengers: Doomsday.

  Weaknesses

  The live-action Moana's box office was below expectations, exposing issues related to franchise fatigue, release-window competition, and insufficient creative differentiation.

  Comparison

  The live-action Moana's opening was weaker than the prior global opening expectation of approximately $130 million and significantly below the historical performance of Moana 2, which generated approximately $1.06 billion in global box office.

  Risks

  A weak theatrical slate, streaming competition, rising sports rights costs, accelerated cord-cutting, slowing macroeconomic consumption, M&A, regulatory policy, interest-rate, and foreign-exchange risks.

Key data

• RatingBUYRating effective since June 24, 2024.
• 12-month target price$163.00Target price disclosed on the report cover.
• Current price$95.62Price disclosed on the report cover.
• Implied upside70.5%Based on the target price and current price.
• Live-action Moana global openingApproximately $95mnIncluding approximately $43mn domestically in the United States and $52mn internationally.
• Prior global opening expectationApproximately $130mnExpectation cited from Deadline.
• Production costsApproximately $250mnProduction budget disclosed in the report.
• Global P&A spendingApproximately $145mnUsed in the theatrical profitability estimate.
• Goldman Sachs estimated total global box officeApproximately $327mnBelow the prior estimate of approximately $530mn.
• Estimated theatrical lossApproximately $132mnAssumes a 50% global studio revenue share and includes approximately $100mn in ancillary revenue contributions.
• FY9/26E revenue$102,543.4mnGoldman Sachs forecast table.
• FY9/26E EPS$6.88Goldman Sachs forecast table.
• FY9/26E P/E13.9xGoldman Sachs forecast table.

Impact & implications

The main short-term impact is that the film's box office disappointment could increase the probability of a F4Q26 theatrical impairment and put pressure on subsequent monetization through consumer products licensing, PVOD, and home video. At the stock level, Goldman Sachs has not lowered its estimates or target price, indicating that the event is viewed as a negative impact at the individual-film level rather than a structural change significant enough to alter the overall Disney investment thesis.

Risks

• The live-action Moana may underperform at the box office, potentially resulting in a F4Q26 theatrical impairment.
• Subsequent monetization through consumer products licensing, PVOD, and home video may be weighed down by weak box office performance.
• Franchise fatigue and a lack of creative differentiation may affect the marginal returns of Disney's live-action remake strategy.
• Summer family-film competition is intense, including Toy Story 5 and Minions & Monsters, which may divert the target audience.
• At the company level, Disney also faces accelerated cord-cutting, inflation in sports rights costs, streaming competition, slowing macroeconomic consumption, a weak theatrical slate, M&A, regulatory policy, interest-rate, and foreign-exchange risks.

What to watch

• The subsequent-weekend box office decline for the live-action Moana and whether final global box office approaches Goldman Sachs' estimate of approximately $327 million.
• Whether a theatrical impairment is recognized in F4Q26 and whether its size is close to the report's estimate.
• Whether consumer products licensing, PVOD, and home video revenue falls below expectations because of weak box office performance.
• Performance of Disney's 2H26 slate, particularly The Dog Stars, Hexed, and Avengers: Doomsday.
• Whether Disney adjusts the release cadence and creative strategy for live-action remakes and sequels to core IP.