AccoTest (688200) Report Interpretation

Overview

This earnings review assesses how AccoTest’s STS8600 tester rollout and rising domestic GPU-related semiconductor-equipment demand affect its growth outlook. Goldman Sachs lifts earnings forecasts on stronger revenue expectations but maintains Neutral and its Rmb630 12-month target price.

Core views

Goldman Sachs links AccoTest’s outlook to a favorable China semiconductor-equipment spending backdrop. It forecasts China semiconductor capex growth of 13% in 2026E and 15% in both 2027E and 2028E, reaching US$68bn in 2028E. This is expected to support China wafer-fab-equipment spending growth of 13%/20%/15% across 2026-28E. The report expects demand from domestic major foundries, IDMs and OSATs to rise as customers migrate to advanced nodes and expand capacity for AI-related end demand. At the company level, AccoTest has started small-volume shipments of its STS8600 testing tool and is continuing product verification with local CPU and GPU clients. Goldman Sachs believes this customer-validation process and the expanding client base can support a shipment ramp over coming years. It raises its 2027E-28E STS8600 shipment assumptions because of strong orders on hand and customer expansion. However, tight supplies of upstream materials are identified as a near-term constraint on shipment growth. For 3Q26E, the report forecasts revenue of Rmb512m, up 27% year-on-year and 10% quarter-on-quarter, driven by testing-equipment shipments. Gross margin is expected to remain broadly flat quarter-on-quarter at 74%, reflecting a largely unchanged product mix. AccoTest reported 2Q26 revenue of Rmb467m, 11% above Goldman Sachs estimates and 9% above consensus, rising 39% year-on-year and 72% quarter-on-quarter. Gross profit was Rmb347m, while operating income was Rmb177m and pretax income Rmb360m. Following the 2Q26 result, Goldman Sachs raises 2026E-28E revenue forecasts by 3%/7%/10%, to Rmb1,801m/Rmb2,284m/Rmb2,840m, chiefly from a higher STS8600 contribution. Net-income forecasts increase by 15%/5%/3%, to Rmb856m/Rmb957m/Rmb1,218m. Gross-margin assumptions are largely unchanged at 73.9%/73.0%/72.8%, while operating-margin forecasts are reduced because higher R&D spending is needed to broaden the product line and client base. The valuation remains unchanged despite the higher forecasts. Goldman Sachs derives its 12-month Rmb630 target price using a 64x 2030E discounted P/E multiple, selected from the relationship between peer P/E multiples and the sum of forward net-income growth and operating margin. It discounts the multiple back to 2027E using an 11% cost of equity. Goldman Sachs maintains Neutral, citing the unchanged valuation framework alongside the improved growth outlook.

Analysis framework

The report starts with China semiconductor-capex and wafer-fab-equipment demand, then connects this industry backdrop to AccoTest’s STS8600 customer verification, orders and shipment potential. It incorporates the 2Q26 result into revised revenue, margin, R&D and net-income forecasts, then applies a peer-referenced discounted P/E framework to retain the target price and rating.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsP/E and PEG Valuation

  Discounted P/E valuation using a 64x 2030E target P/E, discounted back to 2027E at an 11% cost of equity.

  Goldman Sachs sets the target multiple with reference to the relationship between peers’ P/E multiples, forward net-income growth and operating margin, then discounts it to produce the 12-month target price.

• Industry AnalysisSupply-demand framework

  China semiconductor-capex and wafer-fab-equipment spending outlook linked to demand from foundries, IDMs and OSATs.

  The report uses expected industry investment, advanced-node migration and AI-related capacity expansion to explain the demand environment for AccoTest’s testing equipment.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• AccoTest (688200.SS)

  Primary covered company expected to benefit from domestic semiconductor-equipment demand and STS8600 adoption by local CPU and GPU clients.

  Strengths

  Small-volume STS8600 shipments have begun; customer verification, strong orders on hand and client-base expansion support a future shipment ramp.

  Weaknesses

  Higher R&D spending raises operating-expense ratios and lowers operating-margin forecasts versus prior estimates.

  Comparison

  Its target P/E multiple is derived from the relationship between peer P/E multiples, forward net-income growth and operating margin.

  Risks

  Higher or lower China WFE capex, higher or lower SPE localization, and stronger or milder market competition.

Key data

• China semiconductor capex growth13% / 15% / 15% in 2026E-28E; US$68bn in 2028EGoldman Sachs forecast supporting the domestic semiconductor-equipment outlook.
• China WFE spending growth13% / 20% / 15% in 2026E-28EExpected to be supported by semiconductor-capex growth.
• 2Q26 revenueRmb467m11% above Goldman Sachs estimates, 9% above consensus, 39% year-on-year growth and 72% quarter-on-quarter growth.
• 3Q26E revenueRmb512mForecast to rise 27% year-on-year and 10% quarter-on-quarter.
• 3Q26E gross margin74%Expected to remain flat quarter-on-quarter on a largely unchanged product mix.
• 2026E-28E revenue revisions+3% / +7% / +10%Driven mainly by a higher STS8600 contribution.
• 2026E-28E net-income revisions+15% / +5% / +3%Mainly reflects higher revenue forecasts.
• 12-month target priceRmb630.00Based on 64x 2030E discounted P/E and an 11% cost of equity.

Impact & implications

The report argues that AccoTest is positioned to benefit from expanding domestic semiconductor-equipment demand and local CPU/GPU testing needs. Higher expected STS8600 contribution raises the earnings outlook, but supply constraints and increased R&D spending temper the near-term operating outlook; Goldman Sachs therefore retains Neutral.

Risks

• China wafer-fab-equipment capex could be higher or lower than expected.
• The semiconductor-production-equipment localization rate could be higher or lower than expected.
• Market competition could be stronger or milder than expected.
• Tight upstream-material supply could constrain near-term shipment growth.

What to watch

• STS8600 product verification and shipment progress with local CPU and GPU customers.
• Order backlog and client-base expansion for STS8600.
• China semiconductor capex and WFE spending trends.
• Upstream-material supply conditions and their effect on shipments.
• R&D spending and resulting operating-margin development.