Japan June wage and real-wage growth: Japan’s June wage growth remained above 3%, while real wages stayed positive for a sixth consecutive month.

Overview

This data update examines Japan’s June labour survey. Goldman Sachs finds that wage growth remained strong and that real wages continued to rise, with basic-pay gains consistent with the 2026 shunto settlement outcome.

Core views

Nominal cash wages rose 3.4% year on year in June, marginally faster than May’s 3.3%. Special wages, including summer bonuses, account for more than 40% of June wages. They increased 3.5% year on year and contributed 1.5 percentage points to headline wage growth, although their growth rate was slower than May’s 7.4%. Underlying pay growth strengthened. Basic wages for all workers rose 3.4% year on year, up from 3.0% in May. Full-time basic-wage growth remained 3.6%, while the Bank of Japan–watched full-time “same sample” measure accelerated to 2.9% from 2.5%. On that same-sample basis, basic wages increased 3.0% in manufacturing, 3.1% in wholesale and retail trade, and 2.6% in medical and welfare services. Same-sample nominal cash wage growth accelerated more sharply to 4.4% from 3.1%, driven by both basic and special wages. The report links the June figures to the final 2026 shunto wage settlements announced by JTUC-RENGO on July 3. The agreed base-pay rise eased slightly to 3.5% from 3.7% in 2025, but remained high and the gap between large and mid-sized enterprises narrowed. Since shunto wage increases begin to appear in May–June paychecks, Goldman Sachs considers the June labour-survey basic-wage data consistent with the final settlement results. Part-time hourly basic-wage growth slowed to 4.3% year on year from 5.0% in May but remained high. The report notes that shunto agreements called for 6.2% growth in part-time hourly wages, above the prior year’s 5.8%. Real wages continued their positive trend. Wages deflated by CPI excluding imputed rent rose 1.6% year on year, unchanged from May and positive for a sixth consecutive month since the start of the year. Wages deflated by headline CPI rose 1.7%, following 1.8% in May, marking a seventh consecutive increase since December. The report cautions that headline labour-survey wage growth can be affected by sample rotation; same-sample figures reduce, but do not fully remove, this bias.

Analysis framework

Goldman Sachs compares June and May year-on-year wage measures, separates basic, special, overtime and part-time pay, and emphasizes same-sample results to reduce survey-composition distortions. It then cross-checks the data against final 2026 shunto wage agreements and calculates real wages by deflating nominal wages with CPI measures.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisVolume-price decomposition

  Breakdown of nominal wage growth into basic wages, special wages, overtime pay and part-time hourly wages.

  The report separates wage components to show that both underlying basic pay and special wages contributed to June’s wage growth.

• Other

  Same-sample wage comparison to reduce Monthly Labour Survey sample-rotation bias.

  By following a consistent set of companies, the comparison aims to provide a cleaner indication of wage growth than headline figures, though the report notes that rotation effects are not fully eliminated.

Key data

• Nominal cash wage growth+3.4% yoy in JuneUp from +3.3% in May.
• Basic wage growth+3.4% yoy in JuneUp from +3.0% in May.
• Full-time same-sample basic wage growth+2.9% yoy in JuneUp from +2.5% in May; closely watched by the Bank of Japan.
• Same-sample nominal cash wage growth+4.4% yoy in JuneUp from +3.1% in May.
• Real wage growth excluding imputed rent+1.6% yoy in JuneUnchanged from May and positive for a sixth consecutive month.
• 2026 shunto agreed base-pay rise3.5%Slightly below 3.7% in 2025.

Impact & implications

The report interprets the June data as evidence that high shunto wage settlements are being reflected in paychecks and that purchasing-power growth has remained positive. Stronger same-sample basic-wage growth supports this reading despite survey-composition limitations.