China eCommerce: China online retail slowed in August, while Temu normalizes and selected platform profit recovery remains a key 2H26 theme

Overview

This tracker reviews August Chinese online-retail, parcel, Temu and platform trends. Goldman Sachs sees a softer consumer backdrop and lower near-term online-GMV growth, offset by stable express-delivery demand, Temu’s strategic infrastructure investment, and anticipated profit recovery at transaction platforms in 2H26.

Core views

China’s online retail slowed in August. National online retail goods GMV grew 2% year-on-year, down from 3% in July, as food and clothing spending decelerated. Overall retail sales rose 0.4% year-on-year, matching Goldman Sachs estimates but below Bloomberg consensus of 0.8%, and slowing from 0.6% in July. Food, jewelry, cosmetics and automobile sales grew 4%, -18%, 5% and -19%, respectively, versus 5%, -10%, 7% and -17% in July. Home appliances and electronic equipment were relative exceptions: growth improved to 2.3% and 27.3%, respectively, aided by favorable comparison bases. Incorporating August data, Goldman Sachs reduces its 3Q26 online-GMV growth forecast to 3% from 4%, retains its 3Q26 parcel-volume forecast at 4%, and maintains 2026 online-GMV and parcel-volume growth forecasts of 4% and 5%. Parcel data indicate steadier fulfillment demand than retail-GMV growth. Industry parcel volume grew about 4% year-on-year in August, unchanged from July, which Goldman Sachs interprets as implying stable average order value per parcel year-on-year. Its weekly tracker showed approximately 4.5% year-on-year parcel-volume growth during the first 13 days of September, equivalent to about 582 million average daily parcels under the Ministry of Transport definition. The report highlights that the gap between online-goods GMV and parcel growth can reflect base effects, trade-in programs, delivery-fee changes and eCommerce-related taxes. Temu’s US growth normalized after its initial disruption from the May 2025 removal of the de-minimis exemption. Bloomberg Second Measure indicated US GMV growth of 5% year-on-year in August, down from 24% in July, while QuestMobile data showed Temu merchant count declined 4% month-on-month after a 5% fall in July. Goldman Sachs expects pressure to persist following Europe’s removal of de-minimis treatment and adoption of a flat customs duty per item from July; Europe represents about one-third of Temu GMV in Goldman Sachs estimates. However, it considers Temu’s long-term commitment to its first-party Xinpinmu model, including the June launch of Bemuvo in selected markets, and investment in local supply chain, warehousing and fulfillment as positive for resilience, compliance and global addressable-market expansion. Temu global monthly active users were 468 million in August 2026, flat month-on-month. Competition in food delivery and quick commerce remains a near-term earnings drag. Goldman Sachs estimates September-quarter food-delivery EBIT of negative Rmb9.7 billion for Alibaba and negative Rmb0.6 billion for Meituan, compared with negative Rmb10.4 billion and negative Rmb1.6 billion in the June quarter. It attributes Meituan’s losses to self-initiated marketing and subsidy investment aimed at gaining gross transaction value share during the peak season, despite faster-than-expected second-quarter unit-economics and profit recovery. Looking into third-quarter results, the report cites weak July-August travel demand, soft consumer spending and later Apple product shipments as pressures on eCommerce, advertising and local-services revenue, alongside elevated quarter-on-quarter hyperscaler capex. For 2H26, Goldman Sachs expects quick-commerce losses to decline by roughly half year-on-year for Alibaba and JD, supporting faster year-on-year profit-growth recovery for transaction platforms. Its preferred ideas are Alibaba in cloud and data centers on accelerating cloud growth and strong AI-compute demand, and JD in eCommerce on top-line and profit recovery. In logistics, it is Buy-rated on SF Holding H shares, JD Logistics and ZTO, Neutral on J&T, STO, Yunda, KLN Logistics and SF Holding A shares, and Sell-rated on YTO and Sinotrans. The report also maintains Buy ratings and SOTP-based targets for Alibaba, PDD Holdings, Meituan and JD.com.

Analysis framework

Goldman Sachs combines national retail and parcel statistics with its weekly parcel tracker, company data and third-party measures of Temu sales, merchant activity and engagement. It compares growth by category and platform, translates operating trends into quarterly GMV, parcel-volume and EBIT estimates, and applies sum-of-the-parts valuation for covered companies.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisSupply-demand framework

  Online-retail GMV, spending categories, parcel volumes and delivery pricing

  The report uses consumer demand and fulfillment-volume indicators together to assess eCommerce activity and explain divergence between retail sales and parcel growth.

• Industry AnalysisVolume-price decomposition

  Parcel volume and average order value per parcel

  Stable parcel growth combined with the observed retail-growth gap is used to infer the direction of average order value and related industry drivers.

• Valuation methodsSOTP (Sum-of-the-Parts) Valuation

  Sum-of-the-parts valuation

  Goldman Sachs values covered companies by separately valuing major businesses and combining them into 12-month target prices.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Alibaba Group / 9988.HK

  Key cloud and data-center idea; transaction-platform profit recovery is expected as quick-commerce losses narrow.

  Strengths

  Accelerating cloud growth and strong AI-compute demand.

  Weaknesses

  Near-term eCommerce, advertising and local-services revenue may face soft consumption and later Apple shipments.

  Comparison

  Alibaba food-delivery EBIT is estimated at -Rmb9.7bn in the September quarter versus Meituan at -Rmb0.6bn.

  Risks

  Lower GMV growth, slower China-retail monetization, weaker execution in strategic investments and cloud-revenue deceleration.

• PDD Holdings / PDD

  Covered eCommerce platform with Temu as a central international-growth consideration.

  Strengths

  Temu’s first-party brand and local supply-chain, warehousing and fulfillment investments may improve resilience and compliance.

  Weaknesses

  US GMV growth moderated and merchant count continued to decline.

  Comparison

  Temu faces competitive pressure from Alibaba and Douyin in low-ticket categories.

  Risks

  Geopolitical headwinds, competition, reinvestment pressure on margins and limited segment disclosure.

• Meituan

  Covered food-delivery and quick-commerce platform.

  Strengths

  Faster-than-expected second-quarter unit-economics and profit recovery.

  Weaknesses

  Marketing and subsidy investment for GTV share is expected to keep the September quarter loss-making.

  Comparison

  Estimated September-quarter food-delivery EBIT loss of Rmb0.6bn is smaller than Alibaba’s estimated Rmb9.7bn loss.

  Risks

  More intense competition, labor-cost pressure, food-safety or regulatory issues, and larger-than-expected Keeta investment.

• JD.com

  Key eCommerce idea and covered logistics-linked platform.

  Strengths

  Goldman Sachs expects top-line recovery and faster year-on-year profit recovery as quick-commerce losses reduce.

  Weaknesses

  Near-term consumer demand, electronics and appliance comparisons, and general-merchandise execution may constrain growth.

  Comparison

  The report expects Alibaba and JD quick-commerce losses to reduce by half year-on-year in 2H26.

  Risks

  Tougher eCommerce and food-delivery competition, GMV slowdown and retail-margin fluctuation from continued investment.

Key data

• National online retail goods GMV growth+2% yoy in AugustDown from +3% yoy in July.
• Overall retail sales growth+0.4% yoy in AugustIn line with Goldman Sachs estimates and below Bloomberg consensus of +0.8%; July was +0.6%.
• 3Q26 online GMV forecast+3% yoyReduced from a prior +4% forecast.
• 2026 industry forecastOnline GMV +4% yoy; parcel volume +5% yoyForecasts maintained.
• September parcel-volume trackerc. +4.5% yoyFirst 13 days of September, at c.582 million average daily parcels.
• Temu US GMV growth+5% yoy in AugustDown from +24% yoy in July.
• Temu global MAU468 million in August 2026Flat month-on-month.
• September-quarter food delivery EBIT estimateAlibaba: -Rmb9.7bn; Meituan: -Rmb0.6bnVersus -Rmb10.4bn and -Rmb1.6bn, respectively, in the June quarter.

Impact & implications

The report links softer retail demand to lower near-term eCommerce GMV expectations, while stable parcel growth supports a less negative read-through for delivery volumes. It expects competitive spending to continue weighing on quick-commerce earnings near term, but sees lower losses in 2H26 as a driver of profit recovery for Alibaba and JD.

Risks

• Chinese online GMV growth could be weaker than expected amid macroeconomic softness or competition.
• Competition and subsidy investment could delay the pace of food-delivery and quick-commerce profit recovery.
• Temu faces continued regulatory and customs-related pressure in Europe and developed markets.
• Soft consumption, weaker travel demand and later Apple shipments could weigh on third-quarter eCommerce, advertising and local-services revenue.

What to watch

• September parcel-volume growth and whether it remains above the approximately 4% pace recorded from June through August.
• China retail demand by discretionary categories, particularly food, jewelry, cosmetics, automobiles, appliances and electronics.
• Temu US GMV, merchant counts, engagement trends and the effects of customs-policy changes in Europe.
• The pace of quick-commerce loss reduction and associated profit recovery at Alibaba and JD in 2H26.
• Cloud growth, AI-compute demand and hyperscaler capex trends.