Akeso (09926): Nomura sees AstraZeneca's USD2bn Summit investment as further validation for Akeso's ivonescimab

Overview

This quick note assesses the implications for Akeso of AstraZeneca's USD2bn strategic investment in Summit Therapeutics, Akeso's overseas partner for ivonescimab. Nomura considers the transaction positive for ivonescimab's global development and maintains its Buy rating on Akeso.

Core views

On 29 September before the Hong Kong market opened, Akeso and its overseas partner Summit Therapeutics announced that AstraZeneca would make a USD2bn strategic investment in Summit. The investment is in convertible preferred shares and implies USD18.36 per Summit share, compared with Summit's USD15.48 closing price on 28 September. It represents approximately 12% of Summit's common stock, or 10.6% on a diluted basis. Nomura notes that Summit is not rated, as is AstraZeneca. The transaction also includes collaboration to evaluate sonesitatug vedotin, a CLDN18.2 antibody-drug conjugate that AstraZeneca in-licensed from a joint venture formed by Keymed and Lepu Bio, in combination with ivonescimab. Summit had in-licensed ivonescimab, a PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody, from Akeso. Nomura argues that this adds support for advancing ivonescimab through costly global clinical trials alongside a larger multinational pharmaceutical company. Nomura characterizes the USD2bn financing as neither a rescue nor a fire sale, and not a direct investment in Summit common stock. In its view, the scale and terms of the investment further recognize the value of ivonescimab, which it identifies as a key component of Akeso's value. Summit's share price rose 18% after market on the news, and Nomura expects Akeso's share price to react positively as well. Nomura maintains Buy on Akeso and keeps its HKD138.29 target price. The target is derived from a discounted cash flow model using a 10.8% weighted average cost of capital and a 4% terminal growth rate; the benchmark index is the Hang Seng Index.

Analysis framework

Nomura links the financing terms, the strategic collaboration and Summit's role as Akeso's overseas ivonescimab partner to the drug's prospects in global clinical development. It then assesses the potential read-through to Akeso and retains its valuation-based rating and target price.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsDCF (Discounted Cash Flow)

  Discounted cash flow valuation

  Nomura derives Akeso's HKD138.29 target price using a DCF model with a 10.8% WACC and 4% terminal growth rate.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Akeso (9926.HK)

  Primary covered company and licensor of ivonescimab to Summit.

  Strengths

  Nomura views ivonescimab as a key value component and sees further external validation from AstraZeneca's investment in Summit.

  Risks

  Inferior HARMONi-3 data, slower-than-expected sales growth, and clinical setbacks for other assets may impede achievement of the target price.

• Summit Therapeutics (SMMT US)

  Akeso's overseas partner and licensee of ivonescimab.

  Strengths

  Received a USD2bn strategic investment from AstraZeneca and will evaluate an ivonescimab combination.

• AstraZeneca (AZN LN)

  Strategic investor in Summit and planned collaborator on an ivonescimab combination study.

  Strengths

  Its investment and collaboration provide external recognition of ivonescimab's value in Nomura's view.

Key data

• AstraZeneca investment in SummitUSD2bnStrategic investment in Summit convertible preferred shares.
• Implied Summit share priceUSD18.36/shareVersus Summit's USD15.48 closing price as of 28 September.
• Implied Summit ownershipc.12% of common stock; 10.6% dilutedBased on the convertible preferred-share investment.
• Summit post-market share-price move+18%Following the announcement.
• Akeso target priceHKD138.29Maintained; based on DCF with 10.8% WACC and 4% terminal growth.
• Akeso closing priceHKD92.00As of 28-Sep-2026.

Impact & implications

Nomura believes AstraZeneca's financing and proposed combination-study collaboration strengthen the case for ivonescimab's global development and validate a key part of Akeso's value. It expects the announcement to support a positive market reaction for Akeso.

Risks

• Inferior HARMONi-3 data may impede achievement of Akeso's target price.
• Sales growth slower than expected may impede achievement of Akeso's target price.
• Clinical setbacks for other assets may impede achievement of Akeso's target price.